Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 9
Last week could have gone better for this column, but two-for-four isn’t unredeemable. I’m looking to bounce back with some dog bets against the spread in Week 9!
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday night.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 9. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
#1. Raiders (+3.5) at Chargers — Alternate Spread (-159)
This is the first of three underdog lines that I like. The Raiders are outright favorites per FiveThirtyEight, and they correctly favored the Broncos in last week’s matchup (a warning that I foolishly ignored).
The 4-3 Raiders haven’t set the world on fire, and they don’t have an appealing rookie quarterback like Justin Herbert, but they’re a safe bet to at least keep this game close. The Chargers know that their season is over; they just flipped Desmond King for a sixth-round pick. Meanwhile, the Raiders are coming off a win over the five-win Browns and are in the AFC playoff hunt.
That said, the folks at FootballOutsiders aren’t big fans of the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks 24th in team efficiency, and their 31st-ranked defense is a large part of why. The Chargers rank five spots higher in 19th, but their 17th-ranked offense and 11th-ranked defense are getting held back significantly by the league’s least effective special teams unit.
As a result, I would take the extra breathing room afforded by the alternate spread here. Las Vegas may end up winning, but you can get them as 3.5-point underdogs at a reasonable price at DraftKings, and I would play it safe here.
#2. Broncos (+7.5) at Falcons — Alternate Spread (-195)
The Broncos are four-point underdogs against the Falcons this week, but as we saw in Week 8, they can keep up offensively against bad defenses. The Falcons’ defense gives up 28 points per game, a touch more than the Chargers do (26.4), and Drew Lock should be able to stay within a score here.
Denver has a few other things going for them here. First, they should get Tim Patrick back from the hamstring injury that caused him to miss Week 8. Second, Denver’s defense ranks seventh in defensive efficiency; while they rank only 25th in overall efficiency, Vic Fangio’s defense should cause problems for the Falcons’ 19th-ranked offense.
To quantify Denver’s defensive advantage further, let’s look at pass protection. Atlanta ranks 18th in adjusted sack rate (6.7%), and they’re playing worse than the league average (6.5%). In contrast, Denver’s defensive line ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate (8.0%).
Matt Ryan should be under enough pressure to keep Denver from falling too far behind on Sunday.
#3. Giants (+6.5) at Football Team — Alternate Spread (-200)
When the Washington Football Team played the New York Football Giants at home, they lost by 20-19. Yet heading into their home game, Washington currently has a field-goal advantage. I suppose that the lack of travel offers some benefits, but I’m expecting a very similar game to the one we saw before.
And what kind of game was that? Incredibly low-scoring. Before Kyle Allen lost a fourth-quarter fumble that the Giants returned for a touchdown, the score was 13-13. The Giants ran only 46 offensive plays during the whole game.
I would be stunned if either team won by more than two field goals. As a result, I would play the Giants as 6.5-point underdogs.
#4. Steelers ML (-770)
I’ll cap off this play with a bet against the Dallas Cowboys. We sill don’t know if they plan to go with Garrett Gilbert or Ben DiNucci behind Andy Dalton, and that’s not a good problem to have the week before playing the league’s best defense.
Pittsburgh ranks second in overall team efficiency, while Dallas ranks 30th. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks second in overall efficiency, and their defensive line ranks second in adjusted sack rate (10.6%). In contrast, Dallas’ offensive line ranks 17th (6.5%). With an inexperienced quarterback under center, that’s a recipe for disaster, and this moneyline is a safe filler play for this parlay.
Total Odds: +320
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.