Early NFL Week 10 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
Week 9 of the NFL season was arguably the ugliest slate of the year to date. Several top teams looked lost offensively, leading to several upsets that left you with an icky feeling in your gut about the state of the top contenders across the league. So how will a topsy turvy week impact the lines for the upcoming slate?
Let’s dive right into the numbers to find out. This week’s lines are brought to you courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Thursday, November 11 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
O/U 46
Predicted movement: After missing Week 9 due to injury, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is considered day-to-day ahead of Thursday night’s match-up with the Baltimore Ravens. This week’s potential absence is reflected in a large point spread despite the game being played in Miami. Without Tua, the Dolphins offense underwhelmed against the lowly Texans last week. Jacoby Brissett threw twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and the team combined for just 47 total rushing yards. Though it’s struggled of late, allowing 75 points in the last two weeks, the Baltimore defense is better than what Houston possesses on that side of the ball. If Tua’s health takes a turn for the better, the spread could shrink leading up to TNF. However, if he’s officially ruled out, we could see things push closer toward double digits as the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens offense should project to vastly outclass Brissett and Co.
Sunday, November 14 — 1:00 p.m. EDT
Buffalo Bills (-12.5) at New York Jets
O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: In the category of ‘Things We Never Expected To Be True,’ the Jets had a much more impressive offensive performance against the Colts in Week 9 than the Bills did against the… *checks notes*… Jaguars. Buffalo and its star quarterback Josh Allen laid a massive egg in a 9-6 defeat to Jacksonville. Apparently, bettors expect the Bills to roar back with a vengeance against another weaker opponent in Week 10.
The Mike White Jets are still a thing for another week as Zach Wilson’s recovery from a knee injury continues. The 26-year-old QB will have his work cut out for him against a motivated Buffalo team. That the Jets get this one at home is a nice boost, but it’s hard to imagine a team as talented as the Bills playing down to their competition twice in a row. If not for last week’s puzzling performance, Buffalo would be favored by at least two touchdowns here. There’s still time for that to happen by the end of the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington Football Team
O/U 51
Predicted movement: In the three weeks preceding their Week 9 bye, the Washington Football Team scored a combined 33 points. Not a glowing endorsement of Taylor Heinicke’s recent efforts. On the other side, the Bucs defense got a week of rest to ponder their pitiful outing against Trevor Siemian in a 36-27 loss to the Saints back in Week 8. When things haven’t gone well defensively for the Bucs this season, the passing defense has been the primary concern.
How scary is that heading into a Week 10 match-up on the road against Heinicke? It’s enough to push the total for this game into the low 50s, but the Bucs are still stable favorites in the contest. The number is holding steady just below double-digits at this point, with 10 appearing to be a glass ceiling for Tampa. However, given the combination of the struggles of the WFT defense and Tom Brady’s greatness, there’s room for the total to rise a couple more points while keeping the spread in a similar spot.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
O/U 54.5
Predicted movement: No Dak, no problem was the mantra for Dallas with Cooper Rush at the helm in a Week 8 win over the Vikings. Prescott’s return last week against the Broncos, though, was anything but smooth for the Cowboys. Though the game’s final score was 30-16 in Denver’s favor, Dallas was essentially shut out by the Broncos defense prior to a pair of ultimate garbage-time touchdowns and accompanying two-point conversions. This was a good old-fashioned beatdown. Unfortunately, oddsmakers seem to be effectively writing it off as an aberration for the Cowboys ahead of their upcoming clash with the Falcons.
Facing a backup quarterback in Trevor Siemian last week in New Orleans, Atlanta survived a furious Saints’ comeback effort. The home team piled up 22 fourth-quarter points before the Falcons marched down for the game-winning field goal as time expired. It was a nice, clean game for Matt Rya, ass the veteran quarterback adapts to life without Calvin Ridley. With Dallas likely motivated to prove last week was a blip on the radar, Ryan’s Falcons could need to play catch-up throughout this Week 10 contest. Dallas’ poor performance last week could keep this spread in check below double-digits, but the total might have some helium left in it for a potential shootout.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: The Titans put forth one of the most impressive performances of Week 9, dismantling the Rams in primetime despite losing the heart and soul of their offense in Derrick Henry the week prior. It was almost as though the Titans defense recognized the necessity of the moment. Without Henry, the D rose to the occasion to hold down the potent Los Angeles attack. There are still questions about Ryan Tannehill’s ability to carry the offense without Henry’s presence boosting the play-action passing game, but Week 10 could be another week where Tennessee gets by on defensive prowess against a Saints offense that finds itself in a state of transition.
Taysom Hill’s limited involvement behind Trevor Siemian last week could be the norm moving forward as the Saints attempt to fill the void of the injured Jameis Winston. It’s also possible Sean Payton shifts to a more Hill-centric gameplan following last week’s inconsistencies for the New Orleans offense. Vegas seems to expect a defensive struggle for two undermanned offenses, with a low over/under considering the pedigree of the two teams at full health.
With the game taking place in Nashville, the Titans are modest favorites at the moment. The juice leans toward New Orleans, though, which says oddsmakers have more faith in the Saints to figure out their offense than I do. I don’t see why this spread should move further toward New Orleans with its offense in flux, but we’ll see if the -115 odds compared to -105 on Tennessee is an indicator of a potential shift off of the -3/+3 line later in the week.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
O/U 47/5
Predicted movement: Urban Meyer looked so happy after his Jags upset the Bills in a decidedly boring football game on Sunday. His crew will have another tough task ahead against a Colts team that has quietly won three of its last four games. The ascending Jonathan Taylor in the Indy backfield has been a major reason for the success, but Carson Wentz has also been a pretty steady presence at quarterback–outside of the occasional brain-farting, left-handed interception.
Jacksonville found success last week by taking the deep ball away from Josh Allen. This week, they’ll have to shift their game plan to combat a team that likes to establish the run and is pretty good at doing it. That seems like a trickier match-up for the Jaguars, hence the double-digit spread on the road. It seems possible things move even further toward the Colts throughout the week.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8)
O/U 42
Predicted movement: The Steelers survived a late comeback effort by the Bears on Sunday Night Football last week, but warts for Ben Roethlisberger were fully apparent in spite of the positive result to the game. No play in Week 9 was more visually jarring than when Big Ben put all of his body weight into a throw downfield, and James Washington had to sprint back toward the line of scrimmage and dive to make the catch on the vastly underthrown pass. The formula for Pittsburgh doesn’t involve Ben airing it out often, though. Instead, it’s about running the ball, moving the sticks with short passes, and playing good defense–and it typically works for Pittsburgh.
All facets should flow familiarly in Week 10 against the winless Lions. Detroit is flat-out bad at football, and not even last week’s bye to rest up is likely to change that for Dan Campbell’s squad. Even with a limited, aging Roethlisberger at quarterback, the Steelers should have no trouble against Detroit. As a result, the spread could increase by a point or a point-and-a-half before the game arrives Sunday afternoon.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2)
O/U 45.5
Predicted movement: The Cleveland Browns genuinely look like a different team now that the cancerous fog of Odell Beckham has been lifted from their shoulders. However, their convincing throttling of the Bengals in Week wasn’t enough to earn the status as road favorites over the Patriots this week–at least not so far. New England dismantled Sam Darnold and the Panthers last week, stifling the Panthers’ offense even upon the return of Christian McCaffrey.
The smallest point spread of the week offers the most compelling match-up throughout the league’s slate. Two teams with dominant defensive performances beget an understandably mild 45.5 total points–that number could theoretically decrease further given the potential for an old-school slugfest in this one. Cleveland’s efforts in Week 9 against a solid Bengals offense have the Browns looking even more impressive than the Pats, in my estimation. This game probably doesn’t reach pick’em status before Sunday, but an already slim gap could still be trimmed up even further.
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Sunday, November 14 — 4:05 p.m. EDT
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
O/U 53.5
Predicted movement: After some previous sputtering against the Patriots and Ravens, the Chargers finally got back in the win column by eking out a 27-24 win over the Eagles in Week 9. Regardless of the opponent, winning on the road in the NFL isn’t easy, so we’ll give credit to Los Angeles, where it’s due on this one.
On the other side, the Vikings gave Baltimore all it could handle in Week 9, a welcomed rejuvenation for the Kirk Cousins-led offense. Unfortunately, news about a potentially troubling domestic legal situation involving Dalvin Cook and an ex-girlfriend began to surface Tuesday night. Whether it has any impact on his playing status moving forward is not yet clear. The Vikings surely would drop to the other side of a field goal margin as underdogs if we learn that Cook will miss any time. Otherwise, the -2.5 in favor of the home team feels reasonable for two talented but inconsistent football clubs.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, there doesn’t really seem to be a discernible difference in what we could expect for the point spread depending on which quarterback is announced as the starter this week. Darnold’s shoulder injury appears severe enough to keep him out for a few weeks. So it’s likely Walker’s turn to lead the Carolina offense. He couldn’t do any worse than Darnold. Carolina should have benched him last week for crimes against the sport of football, regardless of his health status.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals rolled over the 49ers with their backup quarterback last week. Colt McCoy handed the ball to James Conner enough times to secure a convincing Cardinals’ victory on the road. No Chase Edmonds (high-ankle sprain) shouldn’t be an issue for this offense. No, Kyler Murray wasn’t either. Whether Murray–and his top target DeAndre Hopkins–return to action for Week 10 is not yet guaranteed. The point spread could potentially dip down into the single-digits if either or both are ruled out. Still, it probably shouldn’t. The Cardinals’ defense is for real, and against the struggling Panthers’ offense, the Cardinals should win this one going away regardless of the status of their quarterback. If Murray is active, it’s wheels up for a point-spread push toward two touchdowns.
Sunday, November 14 — 4:25 p.m. EDT
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-3)
O/U 44
Predicted movement: Teddy Bridgewater hitting deep balls to Tim Patrick had the latter looking like Jerry Rice against the Cowboys in Week 9. Denver’s performance was among the more impressive of the week across the league. Now they get to try and carry that momentum forward into a home game against the Eagles.
Jalen Hurts has been decidedly underwhelming as the Philadelphia starter this season, but with the NFC playoff picture so murky near the bottom–the 4-4 Falcons are the seven-seed as of now–he still has plenty left to play for with the Eagles if he can rally the troops for a tough road tilt this week. However, against a stout Denver D, this has the makings of a potentially ugly contest for the Eagles’ offense. Conversely, the Broncos will look to roll their running back duo of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to chip away at the will of the Philadelphia side. To my eyes, Denver should be heavier favorites for this game; the low over/under makes sense, though, and could probably stand to drop another point or two ahead of Sunday’s action.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
O/U 49
Predicted movement: Bettors should be on high alert for potentially wild swings for this point spread based on news throughout the week about each side’s starting quarterback. Though he’s been on IR for the past month, Russell Wilson seems like the safer bet to suit up than Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay. Wilson has recovered at a remarkable pace from a gruesome finger injury and is on track to play this week.
Rodgers has been through the wringer over the past week, much of it by his own doing. First came news of his positive COVID test. When it got wild was the revelation that he wasn’t vaccinated, contrary to previous belief. His subsequent bizarre commentary on the public response to his vaccination misdirection was something else. He’s been in the news for all the wrong reasons, but if he clears the protocols before Sunday, he’ll have a chance to put the off-field stuff behind him and get back to leading the Packers into the end zone. That’s something his backup, Jordan Love, had significant trouble with during a spot start against Kansas City last week.
Rodgers said earlier this week there’s a “small†chance he won’t clear the COVID protocols in time. If that slight chance comes to fruition, the Seahawks at +3.5 are going to look like an insane value come Sunday.
Sunday, November 14 — 8:25 p.m. EDT
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
O/U 51
Predicted movement: Week 9 presented another chance for us to collectively wonder what in the world is going on with the Chiefs offense this season. At times, Patrick Mahomes still appears lost on the field, missing throws he usually could make in his sleep. And while these divisional clashes with the Raiders usually invite all the weirdness and shootout appeal we could ask for, this might not be the right time for Mahomes to be forced into such a situation.
The Raiders, on the other hand, catch the Chiefs at a potentially opportune moment. As the entire division currently sits above a .500 record, these always-entertaining AFC West battles are going to be as critical as ever for a postseason pursuit in 2021. The Giants tripped up the Raiders last week. After that loss, they’ll have an edge about them upon their return to Vegas to host a primetime game on Sunday night. This is still the Chiefs, though. Barring injury news to KC’s key players, they’ll remain slight favorites ahead of this one. Nevertheless, the prospect of a shootout could be tempting enough for bettors to push the total toward the mid-50s.
Monday, November 15 — 8:15 p.m. EDT
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
O/U 48.5
Predicted movement: The Rams are coming off of their worst performance of the season offensively, as Matt Stafford singlehandedly lost the game for his team with ill-time turnovers and the absence of his customary excellence since joining L.A. The 49ers performed even worse in Week 9 as Arizona backup QB Colt McCoy had his way against their defense.
Sure, it’s a road game for the Rams this time around. Still, I expect the more talented roster to issue a better response to its Week 9 gut check. The 49ers are letting the more dynamic Trey Lance toil on the bench for another week. But they will not be successful with Jimmy Garoppolo when facing quality opponents. We’ll see how long it takes for Kyle Shanahan, too smart for his good, to figure that one out. The Rams should be favored by more points than this, and I expect that they will be by Monday.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.