Early NFL Week 13 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
Week 13 in the NFL is upon us, and multiple lines make me feel like we’re in the Upside Down this football season. With numerous premiere match-ups on the docket for this weekend, let’s dive into some of the nitty-gritty on the potential line movement we could see.
This week’s lines are brought to you courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Get a 100% deposit match bonus up to $250 at Sugarhouse >>
Thursday, December 2 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: What happened to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving? Sure, they were understaffed offensively due to Amari Cooper’s COVID and CeeDee Lamb’s concussion, but that doesn’t explain the defense coughing up 36 points to the previously listless Raiders. This week, the Cowboys may remain without Cooper, but Lamb should be back in the lineup. That should help Dak Prescott with at least one reliable outside threat.
The Saints looked worse than the Cowboys did in their Turkey Day game, falling victim in a get-right affair for the Buffalo Bills. The performance by New Orleans may lead to a quarterback change for this Thursday’s match-up with Dallas. Trevor Siemian just hasn’t been incredibly successful in moving the football consistently for the Saints. Though he’s been dealing with a foot ailment, Taysom Hill has been deemed healthy enough to play by head coach Sean Payton.
Now it’s just a matter of whether he will. Given the Saints’ limitations at the skill positions–Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are back practicing, but their availability for Thursday is TBD–Hill might represent a more practical option for the offense. If the shift to Hill is announced, I don’t expect that to hurt the Cowboys in the spread. If anything, it could push a little money onto the Saints to tighten the margin.
Sunday, December 5 — 1:00 p.m. EDT
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Chicago Bears O/U 45.5
Predicted movement: We’ve got quarterback questions on both sides of this contest, as Kyler Murray and Justin Fields both missed their team’s most recent games due to injury. Murray missed the entire month of November but was drawing closer to his return upon entering the bye last week. He may be able to suit up, which could boost the Cardinals further in the spread. However, confirmation of another week of a backup gunslinger–this time on the road against a solid Bears defense–could spell a line shift toward Chicago.
Money on the Bears may not change too drastically regardless of which quarterback Matt Nagy goes with this week. Justin Fields’ ribs injury wasn’t expected to keep him out of action too long–he avoided a more severe scenario–but it’s hard telling whether Nagy prefers to see Fields on the field over Andy Dalton at this point. The self-sabotage routine only has a few weeks left for Nagy, but for now, keep an eye on the injury news to determine how you feel about the Bears’ chances at pulling the upset.
Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) at Houston Texans O/U 45.5
Predicted movement: Why aren’t the Colts favored by double digits? I understand it’s a road game against a divisional opponent, but Indianapolis has been one of the better teams in the league in the last month. Jonathan Taylor wasn’t quite as impactful the previous week in a loss to the Bucs–83 yards and a touchdown, ho-hum–but, hey, nobody has been able to run on Tampa all year. That he had a regular-old good game instead of another superstar outing doesn’t make Taylor any less of a menace. He should have no trouble decimating Houston’s defensive unit this week.
The movement on this line should get pushed further toward Indy. Like, Houston just lost to the Jets. The Colts have Taylor. What else do you want me to say?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Atlanta Falcons O/U 50.5
Predicted movement: The only thing keeping this spread below, like 30, is the fact that the Falcons just won a road game. But they beat the Jaguars, so it hardly counts. Still, Atlanta gets to return home now with a little manufactured momentum. But the Bucs are the Bucs. This game should be such a tremendous mismatch on paper and the field that it wouldn’t feel outlandish to me for the spread to push toward the two-touchdown mark.
That’s a lot of points to lay on the road, but Tampa Bay out-muscled the Colts behind a standout effort from Leonard Fournette. The Falcons will have a lot of trouble containing the Tom Brady-led attack even without having to account for Lombardi Lenny hitting his stride. Suppose Fournette keeps his hot stretch rolling into next week. In that case, things become all the more difficult for a Falcons offense that has virtually no consistency running the football against average defenses–against the Bucs defensive front, there’s just no way. This game getting to 50 seems unlikely, too, given the Falcons aren’t likely to pull their weight.
Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions O/U 46.5
Predicted movement: The Vikings fell to the 49ers last week, for which you could hardly blame them. San Fran is red-hot. Kirk Cousins lining up behind the wrong offensive lineman on a 4th-and-goal play was a little bizarre, though. Otherwise, the Minnesota offense mostly kept pace in a tough road game, so there isn’t much to say negatively about the Vikings’ current trajectory. And hey, they get a date with the Lions this weekend.
Detroit gave away perhaps their last legitimate chance at a win on the season when they couldn’t close the deal against the Bears on Thanksgiving. D’Andre Swift could miss this week with a shoulder injury, but Jamaal Williams seems just as capable of filling the load out of the backfield. Whether Jared Goff can use him as a weapon for keeping pace with Cousins is another matter.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) O/U 50.5
Predicted movement: Whoa, what a difference a week makes. A week ago, we were singing the praises of Justin Herbert after he led his Chargers to a shootout victory over the Steelers. Then Herbert laid an egg against Denver. So what in the world do we make of this Chargers offense at this point?
Meanwhile, we got a chance to see how the Bengals stack up against the very same team the Chargers just required a late miracle touchdown to defeat the week prior. Well, Pittsburgh allowed 41 to both teams. They only scored ten against Cincy, though. The Bengals controlled every aspect of the Week 12 game from start to finish, so they’re coming in with the absolute momentum advantage. Of course, a lot of good that did the Chargers last week. Burrow v Herbert could undoubtedly live up to the hype, but the current knowledge that the Chargers offense is capable of these kinds of letdowns should keep the total from creeping too far above 50.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-5) O/U 40.5
Predicted movement: I wouldn’t believe it if I hadn’t looked it up with my own eyes, but the Miami Dolphins have won four games in a row. How is this POSSIBLE? They were 1-7. Their season was finished! But Brian Flores’ group has clamped down defensively, Tua Tagovailoa is doing enough offensively to get the job done.
The total could dip into the upper-30s. The Giants aren’t a very good team, but they did manage a 13-7 win over the Eagles last week. Their defense held Jalen Hurts down for a whole game–usually, he at least thrives as a garbage (time) man. Knowing both defenses enter this contest riding pretty high, this could be another ugly game that the Dolphins find a way to pull out in the end.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets O/U 45
Predicted movement: The Eagles looked so inept in a loss to the Giants in Week 12. Luckily for them, they get another crack at a bad New York-based football team this week when they take on the Jets. But if the offense for Philly can’t get it cooking again–and the game taking place in the same road stadium in which they just mustered only 7 points doesn’t seem to help their chances–how can the Eagles expect much of a different result this week? As crazy as it sounds, it feels like the spread could move a point or two toward the home team, given how off-track things were for Jalen Huts and Co. last week in MetLife Stadium. On the other hand, another ugly game could spell a low-scoring one, so if the Jets can trim the margins on the line, that total should come down along with it.
Sunday, December 5 — 4:05 p.m. EDT
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) O/U 49.5
Predicted movement: Where did that come from, Vegas? The Raiders were the stars of the Thanksgiving holiday, rebounding from the depths of what was swiftly beginning to look like a lost season to defeat the Cowboys in overtime. The Raiders have plenty left to play for, as they’re still in the thick of the race in the AFC playoff picture. They’ll host a Washington team that survived a furious comeback attempt by Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Monday night.
The WFT may be without JD McKissic after he was carted off with an injury on Monday. It might not be relevant for the point spread, but McKissic was heavily involved in Monday’s win, so it’s an injury to keep an eye on. As for the Raiders, this is their opportunity to prove Thanksgiving wasn’t a fluke. That they’ve regained their stride in the aftermath of several tumultuous circumstances from earlier in the season. At home, the Raiders have the advantage if they play like they did last Thursday. They could see a bump in the spread to a field goal margin or more.
Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>
Sunday, December 5 — 4:25 p.m. EDT
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5) O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: What is going on with the Rams? Whatever it is that ails them, hosting the Jaguars should be a healthy opportunity to fix it quickly. Vegas seems to agree, as the Rams are heavily favored leading up to this one. Is this the week the Rams’ three-game losing streak ends? Probably so. But the degree to which Matthew Stafford and the rest of the Los Angeles offense can dispose of Urban Meyer’s bunch is where things get interesting on this point spread.
On paper, the Jaguars seem like they should be pretty easily brushed aside, but they’ve also sneakily put together some solid defensive efforts at times throughout this season. If the Rams weren’t in such a delicate state at this point, it would be easy to watch the point spread zoom toward 20. As it happens, this one probably still finds some helium but stops somewhere closer to the two-touchdown range.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks O/U 45.5
Predicted movement: NFC West match-ups are an absolute hoot. The movement on this spread could be just as intriguing to track as the action on the field come Sunday. The 49ers are suddenly looking like the true contender many expected them to be coming into the season. A road tilt at Seattle isn’t the big scary concept it once was because the Seahawks and Russell Wilson look pretty much cooked at this point. So the 49ers are being favored on the road in Seattle? Sure, it’s 2021; stranger things have happened. And at this point, it’s probably the correct line. The final number, though, is anyone’s guess.
Because of the uniqueness of this situation for the typically rock-solid group supported by the 12th Man, this will be an uncomfortable line no matter which side you land on it. At present, the 49ers are straining the upper limits of the hook on top of the three points by which they’re favored. This one seems destined to end up flipping between a field goal and this -3.5 mark all week, with the accompanying juice depending upon which side you want to take.
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 44
Predicted movement: The adage goes that if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. So forgive me for declining to type any words about Ben Roethlisberger in this space. What I’ll say about Lamar Jackson, though, is that I don’t expect him to throw four interceptions every week. Boy, did he ever look bad on Sunday night?
But it’s worth noting that the Ravens did, somehow, win that football game against the Browns. Their defense can hold it down. And though I promised not to be too specific about the whole Roethlisberger thing, let’s say the Baltimore defense shouldn’t have an exceptional degree of trouble with stifling this Steelers offense. The Steelers being the home team is honestly the only thing keeping this line below double digits. As it is, the Ravens probably land as favorites somewhere between four and six points.
Sunday, December 5 — 8:25 p.m. EDT
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) O/U 47
Predicted movement: The Chiefs are, like, back and everything. Sure, okay. So why does this 10-point spread feel like too many points for a divisional game against an opponent that just convincingly throttled Justin Herbert? Like, the Denver defense might be pretty good. And the Chiefs weren’t precisely humming on all cylinders offensively when they last took the field, beating the Cowboys 19-9 a couple of weeks ago. The transitive property hasn’t been a particularly effective way to look at things this season in the NFL (is it ever?), but that Cowboys defense that pretty severely limited Patrick Mahomes and Co. one week turned around and bore responsibility for the rebirth of the Raiders a few days later.
It’s no guarantee. The Chiefs can certainly lay it on a team, especially in their home stadium in primetime. But the Broncos will aim for a ball-control, possession-based style to hang in the game. I’m not sure if Vegas will ultimately tilt off this substantial line, but there’s reason to believe it should consider it.
Monday, December 6 — 8:15 p.m. EDT
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3) O/U 43.5
Predicted movement: Six or so weeks ago, I never would have considered the Bills and Patriots such an anticipated match-up. But things change. Over those six weeks, the Patriots haven’t lost a game. Bill Belichick has done it again, turning his squad into a juggernaut using the same old formula. Strong defense and running game, with an accurate, mistake-free quarterback to tie it all together. Mac Jones may not be Tom Brady, but he’s filling the role capably, and the Pats are rolling. It’s almost surprising to see them as underdogs against just about anybody at this point.
The Bills, in particular, are an interesting case study given the inconsistencies of their performances this season. Since they’re off a win, though–an impressive one over New Orleans–it’s hard to see Josh Allen’s bunch as anything other than the sterling contender version of themselves leading up to this game. That’s why they’re the favorites, but it says quite a bit that the line is straining to even get to a field-goal margin. It shouldn’t advance beyond that point.
SugarHouse Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.