Early NFL Week 14 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
With teams throughout both the AFC and NFC jockeying for playoff position in the coming weeks, the stretch run of the NFL season is going to be a total blast. We’ll be here every step of the way, looking for those early advantages on the odds to help win you some money. Let’s dive into the games to get a sense for where those lines might be heading as the week unfolds.
This week’s lines are brought to you courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Thursday, December 9 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
O/U 43
Predicted movement: The Lions finally won a game in Week 13, so that means the question must be asked: What in the heck is the deal with the team that let Detroit beat them? The Vikings’ bounce-back season hasn’t gone according to plan, as Minnesota is muddling around at 5-7 as the temperature beneath Mike Zimmer’s seat begins to warm. The Vikings expected improvements on the defensive side of the ball that simply haven’t materialized with enough regularity to put the team in contention like it ought to be. They’ve dealt with a Dalvin Cook injury and now must add an Adam Thielen high-ankle sprain to the injury report. Still, they’re favored by a field goal at home over the Steelers this Thursday.
That feels like a pretty reasonable spread considering the offensive issues on the Pittsburgh side, but then again, the Steelers managed to do enough to be the far-superior Ravens a week ago. Does their stout defense travel? It’s hard to project both main units for the Steelers will, which is why even if the line moves toward Pittsburgh throughout the week, it should only go slightly in that direction, perhaps to +2.5
Sunday, December 12 — 1:00 p.m. EDT
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Washington Football Team
O/U48
Predicted movement: Doesn’t it feel like it’s time for Dak Prescott to have a game? The Cowboys signal-caller held his own against in a Week 13 win over the Saints, but the mediocre passing lines are piling up for him more than one might expect. Though the Washington defense has been clamping down lately more regularly than it had been at the beginning of the year, there’s still an opportunity this Sunday for Prescott to bust out and rise above the rigors of a road environment this week. That’s why his Cowboys are favored despite the game taking place in D.C.
Though Taylor Heinicke and the rugged WFT handled the Raiders in a thrilling road win over their own a week ago, they aren’t on the same plane as Dallas from a talent standpoint. Winning on the road in this league is a difficult task, so I’m not saying the spread is going to get out of hand here. Still, Dallas favored by more than the current -3.5 by the time kickoff rolls around seems well within the realm of possibility.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
O/U 42
Predicted movement: The first-place Ravens enter this Week 14 tilt with the last-place Browns with a two-game advantage in the standings over Cleveland. And yet, the oddsmakers seem to notice the same thing about the Ravens that I have over their previous couple of games: They’re not playing very good football.
Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions when these two teams hooked up a couple of weeks ago, but Baltimore survived in a defensive struggle. Jackson wasn’t so lucky last week as his two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game fell outside the bounds of Mark Andrews’ catch radius. The Ravens fell to the Steelers, allowing the issues for this offense to no longer slip under the radar. Jackson hasn’t had his customary ability of late to rise to the occasion with a big play when his team has needed it.
The Browns aren’t in any better spot as an offense, but they get the home-field advantage this time around. Anything can happen in divisional games, but it really feels like the total on this one could drop closer to 40 before game time. The Browns shouldn’t increase their favoritism, but this also doesn’t feel like a pick’em, either–at the end of the day, Cleveland should be favored slightly until Lamar reminds us that he actually can elevate his team to this kind of win on the road.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: The Chiefs offense is not fixed. It’s not immune to Tyreek Hill’s severe case of the dropsies. The symptoms seem to have rubbed off on Byron Pringle, too. Kansas City survived the Denver Broncos last Sunday night more on the strength of its defense than on anything the Patrick Mahomes-led attack could muster. Daniel Sorensen had a key pick-six in addition to a Chiefs’ defensive stop on a 4th down that stalled an 88-yard Denver drive short of manifesting into any impact of the scoreboard. It’s a weird role reversal for the Chiefs, but to say there is more confidence in their offense than in their defense at present isn’t really a hot take.
The Raiders, on the other hand, are sort of all over the map. Their defense played fine in Week 13, but the offense let the team down in a low-scoring loss to the Football Team. Sometimes you gotta win ugly in this league, and Vegas wasn’t able to accomplish that last week. To think they’ll be able to do it now at Arrowhead Stadium is a folly, but then again, can the Chiefs score enough to beat another division rival by double-digits at this point? I have my doubts, but the narrative of Andy Reid having great success over the Raiders during his Chiefs career is going to keep money off the upset-minded Vegas crew this week. Even if it doesn’t get to 10 points, a bump to -9.5 seems likely for KC.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-9.5)
O/U 44
Predicted movement: The injury-riddled Titans got an extra week to rest up in preparation for hosting the Jaguars, so we’ll see whether any of their injured weapons like AJ Brown or Julio Jones are able to suit up for this one. If so, it would go a long way toward providing Ryan Tannehill with some capable passing-catching options. If the Titans are going to cover a double-digit spread, it almost seems like a must to have at least one of those star receivers back in the lineup.
Then again, the Jaguars just can’t get much traction going. The Rams systematically destroyed the will of the Jacksonville bunch en route to covering a 13-point spread with ease in Week 13. I recognize the Titans are banged up, but given they’ll have the confines of their home stadium for this game, I’m growing less confident in the Jaguars’ ability to hang with the 8-4 Titans (how soon we forget this is still a team destined for the playoffs) with each word I type. The spread will likely balloon throughout the week.
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Houston Texans
O/U 41.5
Predicted movement: So, Russell Wilson is all better, right? Kinda hard to tell. He had a much-improved showing in Week 13 as the Seahawks defeated the 49ers. Then again, the Seattle defense was responsible for a good portion of that outcome. Kyle Shanahan being actually a bad offensive coach was responsible for another portion, but I digress. Gotta love the team that traded up to take Trey Lance at No. 3 overall running Jimmy G on an option keeper on 4th and 1, eh Kyle? I guess I hadn’t digressed enough. Okay, I promise to be polite starting… now.
The Seahawks are favored by more than a touchdown on the road against a Texans team that failed to score a point last week. Davis Mills might be starting this game. So yeah, it doesn’t really matter whether Russ is better or not. The Seahawks should win by double-digits, but they won’t be favored by that amount. So let’s walk through this. Are the Texans scoring more than 10 points? Is Russell Wilson leading his team to 30 on the road? Probably not? Okay, yeah, the total needs to go lower. The spread should land at around a touchdown in favor of Seattle.
New Orleans Saints (-5) at New York Jets
O/U 43
Predicted movement: If Taysom Hill is healthy enough to be effective for the Saints, this line probably isn’t quite high enough in favor of New Orleans. If we expect the finger injury to limit Hill or perhaps even knock him from having the chance to start at QB, the Jets shouldn’t be underdogs by this amount. New York has home wins over the Titans and Bengals, two teams with winning records, already this season. It’s not impossible that the Saints could suffer a similar fate.
That being said, it really does feel like the Saints’ ability to be adequate offensively is going to come down to a fella by the name of Hill. The Trevor Siemian experience simply wasn’t working before Sean Payton switched to Taysom last Thursday against Dallas. If they have to go back to the well on that one, expect some line movement toward Gang Green. If not, well, the Saints could get to -6.5 and it really wouldn’t surprise me.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Predicted movement: In week 12 we learned that Cam being “back†maybe wasn’t so much of a foregone conclusion as had been previously (self) reported. Newton struggled so mightily in an embarrassing loss at Miami that he was pulled for PJ Walker late in the game. The Falcons present as a much friendlier opposing defense for the veteran Newton–or for Walker if head coach Matt Rhule should elect to go in that direction–so much so that it seems surprising the Panthers aren’t more heavily favored in this spot.
Even at home the Falcons only mustered 17 points last weekend in a loss to the Bucs, failing to put a single point on the board in the second half. Matt Ryan really doesn’t do garbage time, eh? He might need to reconsider that concept this week. Either that or the oddsmakers should reconsider and push the Panthers as a more heavily-favored option in the coming days.
Sunday, December 12 — 4:05 p.m. EDT
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5)
O/U 44
Predicted movement: Justin Herbert’s On-Again, Off-Again Spectaculathon continues! The Chargers are either tremendous or putrid offensively, and this past week against the Bengals was an example of the former. Los Angeles made easy work of the Cincy defense whereas Joe Burrow and company simply couldn’t keep pace. Will a date with a sturdy Giants defense flip the script on Herbert? The answer to that question seems to hold the key to whether or not the 44-point total is enough to contain these two teams.
It legitimately could be Jake Fromm starting for the Giants. And I realize it hasn’t been a great year for Daniel Jones or Mike Glennon or whoever is taking the snaps in New York this season, but still, it can always be worse. So here comes Fromm! Sure, the line could increase beyond the -10.5 if that Fromm possibility is confirmed, but the movement could be limited by the total’s ability to travel with the spread. And I just don’t see a way for more than 45 points to be scored in this game unless Herbert is providing the vast majority of them. Due to the low total, a more reasonable margin for the spread could be in order.
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-8)
O/U 42
Predicted movement: THEY DID IT! THE FIGHTIN’ DAN CAMPBELLS DID IT! Biting kneecaps en route to a thrilling walk-off win over the Vikings, the Lions escaped the possibility of a winless season last week. One might be where their win streak stops, though, as the Broncos on the road should be a much tougher out than were the Vikings in that home game for Detroit. Denver should control the ball with Javonte Williams, who proved as the lead-man on Sunday Night Football that he’s ready for the workhorse role if Melvin Gordon would just step aside and grant it to him. A double-digit win seems plausible, but don’t look for the spread to advance much further given that 42 points are probably too many for the total as it is.
Sunday, December 12 — 4:25 p.m. EDT
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
O/U 52.5
Predicted movement: It’s hard to evaluate the status of either of these teams after Week 13. The Bucs played the Falcons, so it’s pretty much a bye week. Then you have the Bills, you lost to the Patriots in a game that featured the foulest weather of any so far this NFL season. Here’s something the Bills should prepare for in Week 14: Tom Brady to attempt more passes than Mac Jones did in that MNF affair. The Pats didn’t test that Buffalo secondary following the season-ending injury for Tre’Davious White. This Sunday will present an entirely different story as Brady and the Bucs look to air it out against a depleted Bills’ pass defense.
Brady will show up for this game. Whether Allen will, on the road, is my only question. If you believe the spread is within a reasonable range, you should probably be willing to take the over in what projects as a possible shootout. Otherwise, Vegas should favor the Bucs more heavily. But if so, Tampa shouldn’t be expected to do enough heavy-lifting to get the total into the 50s.
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
O/U 49
Predicted movement: The possibility that either or both of these teams are fraudulent still weighs on my mind when I go to sleep each night, so it’ll be interesting to see the two squads pair up for a ball game on Sunday afternoon. I’ve slandered the head coach of the 49ers enough already in this week’s article, so I’ll spend the rest of my time here wondering whether that famed Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase connection has enough juice left in it to get the Bengals into the playoffs. Chase hasn’t exceeded 52 receiving yards in a game since October 24. The Bengals offense can exist without him, especially if Joe Mixon is doing his thing, but the unit is a lot better with both skill player stars firing on all cylinders.
There’s the potential for this to be a downright weird game, but my lean is that neither defense is playing particularly well right now, so it’s not crazy to think the betting total get into the low 50s and that the game still finds a way to hit the over. Hopefully, Trey Lance gets to play this week.
Sunday, December 12 — 8:25 p.m. EDT
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11.5)
O/U 43.5
Predicted movement: Even with the Packers getting this game at Lambeau, this is too many points in the event of Justin Fields returning from his ribs injury to start for the Bears. The Packers’ defense hasn’t been especially good in either of their two previous games, a loss to the Vikings and a high-scoring win over the Rams. Though Green Bay projects to get some key players returning from injury on the defensive side of the ball this week, Justin Fields could rise to the moment and deliver a memorable Sunday night performance that keeps the Chicago loss to within single digits.
I think the 43.5-point total more accurately reflects the outcome than the point spread, but only if Fields plays. If it’s Andy Dalton again, the Packers likely end up favored in the 13-point range.
Monday, December 6 — 8:15 p.m. EDT
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
O/U 51.5
Predicted movement: This game feels on paper like it has the potential to deliver as a Monday Night Football instant classic. Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford trading touchdowns all night long could absolutely play out for this one, in which case, the 51.5 points need to increase, tout suite. Then again, both defenses are pretty dang good. And how often this year have the games we’ve anticipated for the tantalizing shootouts actually lived up to the billing? This could be a sneaky ugly game between two teams that really want to claim it in order to attain superiority in the loaded NFC West.
The home team rightfully has the slight advantage in terms of the Vegas odds. With a healthy Kyler and Hopkins, it’s possible the Cardinals advance closer to a field goal advantage on the line before this thing kicks off. The Rams are good, but their defense hasn’t held up this season quite as well as Arizona’s in the face of elite competition.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.