Early NFL Week 15 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
A new wave of COVID-19 is rearing its ugly head across the NFL. The virus has claimed 75 positive tests over two days throughout the NFL, a sure sign that more issues are likely in the days ahead. Let’s find some value in anticipating line movements before the inevitable of new COVID positives shifts things in dramatic ways that we can’t yet envision.
This week’s lines are brought to you courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Thursday, December 16 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 52
Predicted movement: The Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with COVID issues that have already pushed this spread from -4 to -3. Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones appears likely to miss the game on a short week after landing on the COVID list Tuesday. That’s a significant absence from the KC defensive line, which helps explain a slight increase to the game’s total as well in the hours since the announcement of Jones’ status.
This game certainly feels like a potential shootout, but there’s a real question as to whether Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense can rise to the occasion in a way they haven’t been forced to do throughout the Chiefs’ current six-game winning streak. No quarterback has challenged them like Justin Herbert is likely to do on Thursday. The spread should continue moving toward the home-team Chargers, especially if more COVID news hampers the Chiefs throughout the week–a legitimate possibility given the current climate surrounding the virus.
Saturday, December 18 — 4:30 p.m. EDT
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3)
O/U40
Predicted movement: The Las Vegas Raiders are a complete mess. All that is keeping this point spread in check right now are the serious COVID limitations the Browns are facing. Cleveland has placed numerous players on the Reserve/COVID-19 list this week, and it’s not impossible that additional significant names would be impacted in the lead-up to Sunday.
But let’s get back to the Raiders. Their offense hasn’t been able to figure things out on any level recently. In their past six games, the Raiders have eclipsed 20 points just once–a 36-point output in that unlikely Thanksgiving win over Dallas. Outside of that one, it’s been brutal. If the Browns get some players back from the COVID list before Saturday, there’s no reason to think the spread shouldn’t move toward Cleveland even further. If the news is littered with more positive cases for the Browns, though, things could get tricky in the days ahead.
Saturday, December 18 — 8:30 p.m. EDT
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
O/U 45
Predicted movement: I respect the effort that the Colts have put forth in recent weeks. Jonathan Taylor has been an absolute workhorse monster out of the Indy backfield. I think they’re a playoff team. All that said, I don’t understand how any AFC team could be favored over the Patriots right now.
Mac Jones’ health is certainly a factor. He was added to the injury report with a thumb injury. But it’s difficult to envision Jones missing the game, considering how realistic the possibility of securing the top seed and playoff bye in the AFC is for this team. New England’s defense can keep Taylor contained–to whatever extent such a concept is possible, anyway.
Sunday, December 19 — 1:00 p.m. EDT
Arizona Cardinals (-13.5) at Detroit Lions
O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: This is a difficult one upon which to put my finger. The Arizona Cardinals are the superior team. Right? We know this. But when you think about how the Lions were able to move the ball and score touchdowns in their last home game, the win over the Vikings, it’s worth wondering if they might have similar success this week against the Cardinals.
After all, Arizona hasn’t exactly been so stout defensively of late. They allowed over 22 points to the Bears and 30 to the Rams–at home–on Monday night. If Goff and Co. put up even 17 points, that could make the cover a difficult proposition given this high number. Still, it’s hard to fathom that a team among the NFL’s best wouldn’t be a heavy favorite over the Lions. The spread probably doesn’t crack a glass ceiling of 14 but remains steady at 13.5.
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
O/U 43.5
Predicted movement: Is Matt Rhule just not very good at this? Whether it’s Cam Newton, PJ Walker, or Sam Darnold at quarterback for the Panthers, there just haven’t been many answers for what’s ailing the Carolina offense. No Christian McCaffrey is a bummer, I get it, but this unit has just been difficult to watch for the bulk of this season. Robby Anderson had perhaps his best game of the season in last week’s loss to Atlanta, but there wasn’t much else to discuss.
This week, the Panthers must go on the road to face an irritated Bills team that let one slip away against the Bucs last week. Even with the mobility of Josh Allen under question due to injury, the spread being into the double-digits feels right. It may even sneak higher throughout the days leading up to Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at New York Giants
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: The Giants aren’t very good. They’re bad offensively. The upstart defense that they momentarily appeared to have possessed didn’t look nearly as impactful last week against Justin Herbert. So on paper, they don’t match up particularly well with the Cowboys.
But the Cowboys on paper have looked better than the Cowboys of reality lately. Dallas beat Washington last week, 27-20, but they looked bad doing it thanks to a second-half meltdown that saw a brainless Dak Prescott pick-six give Washington life in the game. Prescott hasn’t been effective in recent games, which is a scary element to consider given that the Giants have shut down opposing offenses at times this year.
Take their last game against the Eagles, for example. Philly scored 7 points. That was New York’s previous home game, by the way. This might be too many points, but I’m skeptical whether the spread falls into the single digits given the names of the teams involved.
Tennessee Titans (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers
O/U 41.5
Predicted movement: The Titans played a game last week in which they shut out the opposition 20-0. They’re fixed! They’re all better! Well, not so fast. They beat up on the Jaguars. Urban Meyer may well be the biggest joke of a head coach in the history of the NFL. The Titans still have problems offensively. In this past game, Julio Jones returned from IR but wasn’t much of a factor.
All those unimpressive elements considered, whatever the 9-4 Titans have going on is enough to get them favored on the road over Pittsburgh. The Steelers, when facing even a semblance of a competent defense, are forced to watch as Ben Roethlisberger turns into a puddle. It gets ugly fast, as it did in Pittsburgh’s last matchup with the Bengals. But Ben has looked better over his past couple of games, and he gets the benefit of playing at home this week. This spread could land anywhere from pick ’em territory to the Steelers closing as 2.5-point underdogs.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)
O/U 42.5
Predicted movement: The Dolphins are quietly in a great situation in the AFC Wild Card picture. Well, as great of a situation as one could hope to be after starting the season 1-7. Miami has rattled off five wins in a row and now gets the pleasure of hosting the Jets to push their season back to .500.
The COVID scenario for Miami exists in the running back room, as all three of the team’s RBs have landed in danger of missing this weekend’s game. That could put more on the shoulders of Tua Tagovailoa, but when you’re facing off with the Jets, how difficult could it be? The Miami defense is really is the story of this match-up, as that unit has been the primary reason behind the Dolphins’ recent streak. The spread should be higher, as Miami likely wins by double-digits.
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: The quarterbacks are the story of this game and its line movement. Taylor Heinicke injured his knee slightly in last Sunday’s loss to the Cowboys, leading to Kyle Allen’s entrance into the game. Heinicke was also terrible in the snaps he saw, though, so it’s worth wondering how helpful his availability would be for this week.
On the other side, Jalen Hurts should be ready to go following the bye week after missing Week 13’s game. If Hurts has his usual mobility in the aftermath of the ankle injury, he’s due to dominate the WFT defense that has been up-and-down throughout the year. The Eagles get this one at home and should probably be favored by closer to six points.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)
O/U 39.5
Predicted movement: Seriously? Do we have to write up this game? This is going to be just ridiculously ugly. The Jaguars, who were shut out completely last week and are coached by Urban Meyer, shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal. They probably won’t be for long. Though the Texans were roughed up by Seattle last weekend, they did put 13 points on the board. That’s more than I envision the Jaguars putting up. But then again, it’ll be against the Texans’ defense. Geez. This is disgusting. It should be a pick ’em, I think, so the spread likely moves toward the road team before the game.
Sunday, December 19 — 4:05 p.m. EDT
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
O/U 46
Predicted movement: The San Francisco 49ers are going to make the playoffs. And if they don’t, it’s probably because they somehow laid an egg against the Falcons in this Week 15 match-up. And in that case, the Falcons probably take their spot. The massive point spread, though, doesn’t seem to leave much room for that possibility to occur this week despite Atlanta’s 6-7 record falling just one game behind San Francisco’s current mark.
The Atlanta defense has been lacking this season, but recent trends point to the potential for a turnaround. Not likely enough to hold down the resurgent San Francisco offense, but the Falcons just need to be competent enough to keep the margin into the single digits. For as much as my initial reaction said the 49ers would blow Atlanta away in this game, the large spread shouldn’t grow into the double-digits given the technically-persisting postseason aspirations for both sides.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-1)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: Another game on the Week 15 slate with legitimate playoff implications, as both the Bengals and Broncos enter this one with records of 7-6. These teams tend to win with differing styles. The Broncos lean on their defense and run game, while the Bengals are eager to outscore their opponents with Joe Burrow leading the charge.
At home in this one, the Broncos’ defense could have an edge in keeping Burrow and Co. under wraps. The spread movement feels pretty impossible to project, but given the home team’s tendency to play for ball control, the total could drop a point or two ahead of Sunday.
Sunday, December 19 — 4:25 p.m. EDT
Green Bay Packers (-5) at Baltimore Ravens
O/U 43.5
Predicted movement: Two star quarterbacks with potentially significant injuries that could impact matters for Sunday afternoon. After injuring his ankle, Lamar Jackson missed the bulk of the Ravens’ Week 14 loss to the Browns. Even if Lamar can suit up for this marquee battle with the Packers, there’s a question as to whether he’ll have the full scope of his mobility.
Speaking of immobile, Aaron Rodgers’ toe situation appears to be escalating. He’s said to have suffered a setback with the injury in Sunday night’s win over the Bears. In reality, both starting quarterbacks probably find their way into this weekend’s action. Vegas certainly seems to think Rodgers will be good to go, given the five-point road advantage in the spread.
Even with Jackson, the Ravens might be healthy underdogs given their recent struggles. It’s safe to say that the most significant movement of the spread in either direction would occur as the result of new news on the respective injuries to the quarterbacks.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)
O/U 45
Predicted movement: The Rams finally came up with a meaningful win when they took care of the Cardinals in Arizona on Monday night. Matthew Stafford was on point, winning a big game with his new team in a way he didn’t frequently do back in Detroit. But Stafford wouldn’t dare follow up a signature win with a clunker, would he?
There could be some extenuating circumstances for this one that may have already had some impact on the line movement. Odell Beckham Jr. has landed on the COVID list following Monday’s game. More of his teammates may join him in the days ahead. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are looking to fight their way back into the playoff hunt.
A win over the Rams would certainly do the trick. Russell Wilson has been getting better with each passing game since he returned from his finger injury, so if the Rams are too short-handed for this contest, it could turn out to be a closer result than the records might suggest. If the Rams’ COVID situation worsens, it’s hard to imagine them remaining moderate favorites as they are now.
Sunday, December 19 — 8:25 p.m. EDT
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
O/U 46.5
Predicted movement: Big storyline here: The Taysom Hill Show rolls into Tampa for Sunday Night Football this week. Okay, yeah, we’ve buried the lede. Tom Brady did it again last week, throwing the walk-off touchdown to Breshad Perriman to beat the Bills in overtime on Sunday. He’s riding hot, and so are the Bucs, who improved to 10-3 with the win.
The Saints offense has looked more competent with Hill at the helm, but the defense still has question marks. It’s also true that Hill hasn’t faced any defenses as good as Tampa’s since taking over as the New Orleans starter.
Tampa should win this game handily. The margin of -10 in favor of the Bucs at DraftKings finds itself moving toward breaking that glass ceiling, with extra juice accompanying a bet on the Bucs at -115. With this game taking place Sunday night, that spells plenty of time for bettors to load up on the Bucs and push the spread further in their favor.
Monday, December 20 — 8:15 p.m. EDT
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
O/U 44
Predicted movement: If Justin Fields is really the answer for the Bears, Monday night might be one of the games upon which we look back and say ‘we knew it when.’ The Vikings’ defense is certainly exploitable–just ask Jared Goff–and the Bears do get this game at home. So can Fields get it done?
Vegas doesn’t seem to think so. The Bears are home underdogs as they welcome in Kirk Cousins and Minnesota. The Vikings are likely still without Adam Thielen, but the combo of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook may be all that Minnesota offense needs for this one. The Minnesota defense is leaky, though. Ultimately, the most potential movement I notice for this spread is the possibility that the total creeps up closer to the high-40s before the weekend is through.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.