Early NFL Week 16 Betting Lines and Predicted Movement

What an unpredictable Week 15 we had. The theme of this season has been upsets, but Nick Foles really is the upset king. The Patriots have also lost two games in a row, the Saints are struggling to find a rhythm, the Seahawks play down to bad teams’ level, and the Browns are still alive in December. Without a doubt, the final two weeks of the regular season will be exciting, but we have to wait until Saturday to get it going.

The lines for all 16 games have been released for this week, but we know they will constantly be moving. Let’s take a look at all of the opening lines for this week in the NFL, then I’ll make a prediction of what each game’s final line will be.

Saturday Games

Washington at Titans (-10)
Washington found a win against a struggling Jacksonville team last week, while the Titans managed to stay alive with a win over the Giants. The big storylines for these two teams have both come from the offensive side of the ball. For Washington, they have been a mess since Alex Smith was lost at quarterback. Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez are both gone, but the top AAF draft pick Josh Johnson got the win last week. For the Titans, Derrick Henry has come alive. Sure, it took 14 weeks and cost many fantasy owners their chance at making the playoffs, but he’s been an animal lately. Over the past two performances, he has 408 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. Crazy. Tennessee has also been much better at home, sporting a 5-1 record and +33 point differential. Momentum is clearly on the Titans’ side, and they are 7-2 ATS at home over the past nine games, so I think the gap will widen slightly more.

Closing Line Prediction: Titans (-10.5)

Ravens at Chargers (-4.5)
The Chargers may be the hottest team in the league, now tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. They will host the Ravens, led by rookie Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are still very much alive, but they do not have the offensive firepower to be in the same discussion as LA. The only reason this spread is so close is because of the injuries to the Chargers offensively. However, they are optimistic Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, and even Keenan Allen will play this week.

Closing Line Prediction: Chargers (-5.5)

Early Sunday Games

Buccaneers at Cowboys (-7)
Both of these offenses sputtered last week, to say the least. If money comes in early this week on this game, my guess would be on Cowboys in a bounce back. This is one of those spots where many feel an offense like this would come out hot against a defense like that. Will they? I’m not so sure, but my bet is that enough other people think so to move the line.

Closing Line Prediction: Cowboys (-8)

Bills at Patriots (-12.5)
The Patriots have lost two games in a row. This just doesn’t happen. I feel bad for the Bills, who are coming off a game where they had no running backs healthy at one point only to play in Foxborough against an angry Tom Brady. This spread is wide enough where it won’t move much, but I think it does slightly.

Closing Line Prediction: Patriots (-13)

Jaguars at Dolphins (-4)
The Jaguars have completely fallen apart, and the Dolphins have actually been terrific at home. In Miami, they have just one loss on the season. There’s an argument to be made for Jacksonville in this one, but early bets will certainly not go their way after looking terrible. Expect the spread to grow.

Closing Line Prediction: Dolphins (-5.5)

Giants at Colts (-9)
The Colts sort of snuck up on us and now sit very relevant at 8-6. The surprising aspect may actually be their defense, which shut out the Cowboys last week. Will they be able to stop another terrific rushing attack with Saquon Barkley coming to town? Being one of the more talked about teams heading into Week 16, they will get plenty of people thinking they can cover this spread, but I think it’s too large to move much.

Closing Line Prediction: Colts (-9.5)

Texans at Eagles (-1)
Carson Wentz is out, Nick Foles is in, and the Eagles are in must-win mode. Sound familiar? They’re still alive in the NFC East, and the AFC South-leading Texans come to town this week. The hype in Philly is so strong that they are actually favored in this one. With 65% of the early bets coming in on their side, they will be favored by even more on Sunday.

Closing Line Prediction: Eagles (-2)

Falcons at Panthers (-3.5)
The Falcons are coming off a dominating win over the Bucs, while the Panthers looked terrible in a low-scoring loss on Monday night. This game is all about pride and minor bragging rights within the division because these teams do not have much to play for. That being said, the Panthers are much better in Carolina. As long as the main starters play, I would guess that the Panthers become favored by more.

Closing Line Prediction: Panthers (-4.5)

Vikings at Lions (+5.5)
The Vikings offense found their groove in Week 15 and their playoff hopes are very much alive. The Lions, however, are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Not only should the Vikings be favored by more than this no matter what, but there is a slight chance that Stafford sits this week. Either way, the Vikings will enter Sunday favored by more.

Closing Line Prediction: Lions (+7)

Packers at Jets (-1)
The Jets are favored over the Packers in December? If you had money on that at the beginning of the season, you’d be pretty rich right now. This spread is assuming Aaron Rodgers sits, but I’m not so sure. Rodgers has been getting a lot of heat this season, both here in the state of Wisconsin and everywhere else. Even if there is internal pressure for him to sit, I just don’t see him doing it. The Packers are one of those organizations that don’t tank even when it’s strategically beneficial. It was reported that he hurt his groin at the end of the first half, but I just don’t think it’s enough to sideline him. Once we hear he will be active on Sunday, the line will change in a big way.

Closing Line Prediction: Jets (+3.5)

Bengals at Browns (-7)
Hue Jackson revenge game. Was I the only one that just got chills? We know Hue Jackson is incapable of winning in Cleveland, so we already know the Browns will win. These teams are also trending in opposite directions. The Bengals have lost Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and now Tyler Boyd. The Browns and this offense are hot right now. Cleveland will be the sexy team to bet on, and for this, the spread will grow.

Closing Line Prediction: Browns (-7.5)

Late Sunday Games

Rams at Cardinals (+13.5)
The Cardinals are terrible. They have one dangerous weapon on their offense, yet they refuse to get him the ball. The Rams defense has plenty of holes and they over-pursue nearly every play, which makes them vulnerable but there’s little doubt that they win with ease. But again, the Cardinals are terrible. The spread will increase.

Closing Line Prediction: Cardinals (+14.5)

Bears at 49ers (+4)
The Bears have clinched the NFC North, but they do still have something to play for. They are a single win behind the Rams for the second seed, so look for them to keep their focus. Khalil Mack is also returning to the bay, so there should be plenty of friends/family there to watch him. Anything that gives Mack a little extra motivation is not a good thing. Once everyone figures out that the Bears will look to move up in the standings, the spread will increase.

Closing Line Prediction: 49ers (+5.5)

Steelers at Saints (-6)
Both teams pulled off hard-fought wins in Week 15. The Steelers look to get running back James Conner back, while the Saints are trying to find their groove offensively. With a win, the NFC playoffs will go through New Orleans. The Steelers also need a win with the Ravens nipping at their heels. Pittsburgh is optimistic that Conner will be able to play, so once he logs some practice time I expect this line to become a bit more competitive, especially with the Saints offense sputtering.

Closing Line Prediction: Saints (-4.5)

Sunday Night Football

Chiefs at Seahawks (+2.5)
The Chiefs have struggled a little bit, and now they are at risk of dropping from the first to the fifth seed with a loss. Normally, this storyline would get them a larger spread. However, they are battling against the “playing in Seattle” storyline. Nearly two-thirds of early bets are going Kansas City’s way. I expect this to continue until they are favored by a bit more because the one news that could really change is that Spencer Ware and/or Kendall Fuller are ruled active for them, which helps their case.

Closing Line Prediction: Seahawks (+3.5) 

Monday Night Football

Broncos at Raiders (+2.5)
The Raiders’ final game in Oakland. I expected there to be more people on the Raiders because of this storyline, but they have been able to claim only a third of the early bets. We’ll see who we pick later in the week, but I’m guessing this spread grows for now. The public is blinded by how bad this team was earlier in the season.

Closing Line Prediction: Raiders (+3.5)

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.