Early NFL Week 7 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
Week 7 of the NFL calendar features our first bye-pocolypse of the season, with the Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Jaguars, Steelers, and Vikings all taking the week off. That doesn’t mean the 13 games on the slate won’t be enough to fill our cups! We’ve got several lines impacted by the potential for lingering injury news, plus some others that just don’t feel like they should possibly remain at the position they’re in for long.
Without any further ado, let’s dive into our predicted line movement for Week 7. All lines this week come to you courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Thursday, October 21 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
O/U 42.5
Predicted movement: See, it just didn’t make any sense for the Browns to enter their game against the Cardinals last week as favorites. Cleveland got railroaded by Kyler Murray and his still-undefeated Arizona contingent. As if the lopsided 37-14 score wasn’t punishment enough, the Browns come into this week’s Thursday night tilt against the Broncos with tons of swirling personnel questions as a result of that shellacking. Kareem Hunt is on IR. Nick Chubb has been ruled out. And though Baker Mayfield is intent upon continuing to play through the pain of a torn left labrum, expectations for the Browns’ gunslinger should be tempered even if he’s able to suit up. This week, a Cleveland team that typically relies upon its defense and rushing attack won’t have the latter half of that formula.
From a stylistic standpoint, the Broncos, who are essentially a lesser version of the Browns, should at least have their roster mostly healthy and intact. But following three straight losses for Denver, a rowdy primetime environment in Cleveland could be a challenge even against an undermanned squad.
If Case Keenum suits up for the Browns, this line should move aggressively toward a pick ’em. Even if it’s Baker, things could get tighter for the point spread leading up to the game.
Sunday, October 24 — 1:00 p.m. EDT
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
O/U 48.5
Predicted movement: After re-asserting his longstanding ownership of the Chicago Bears franchise last week, Aaron Rodgers rolls into another favorable matchup on paper as his Packers host Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team. Heinicke struggled mightily in what should have been a smash spot for him and the Football Team offense against the Chiefs in Week 6. In fairness to the backup QB, lead rusher Antonio Gibson was clearly compromised by his shin injury; top wideout Terry McLaurin wasn’t himself, either. Heinicke can thrive within the context of a stable offense around him, but he’s not going to deliver the goods without adequate support from capable skill players. With the general health of the WFT offense in question, it’s conceivable this spread hits double digits as more definitive news emerges throughout the week.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-6.5)
O/U 42
Predicted movement: AFC East slugfest! AFC East slugfest! Sure, the Patriots aren’t exactly thriving to this point in the season, but they gave the Cowboys a legitimate scare in that overtime thriller in Foxborough on Sunday. The Jets, uh, should just try and focus on the fact that they somehow beat the team (Titans) that just beat the Bills on Monday night of Week 6. That’s going to end up as their transitive property Super Bowl!
New York is still pretty underwhelming on the field this season. Zach Wilson hasn’t progressed into his final form yet–hopefully not, anyway. Don’t expect him to make a big leap forward this week, either, as Bill Belichick usually has a pretty good idea on how to torment rookie quarterbacks who oppose his defenses. This should be a low-scoring affair–42 might even be too high on the total. For that reason, it will be difficult for the Patriots’ to increase their edge too far beyond a touchdown on the point spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
O/U 47
Predicted movement: Sometimes a line just jumps out at you where you think ‘there’s no way it stays here, and if it does, bet it.’ That was the Cardinals being underdogs to Cleveland last week. This week, it’s the Ravens not being at least a touchdown favorite at home against Cincinnati. I get it, divisional rivalry game. But Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been too good so far this season to post a clunker in this one. And if that’s the game script that seems logical, the total should creep up towards 50, too.
Joe Burrow’s ability to spread the ball to his talented receivers could mean a sneaky shootout possibility. I know these AFC North teams often get together and slog out ugly contests scoring in the low teens per side, but with these two quarterbacks, I don’t see how that happens between the Ravens and Bengals in Week 7.
55.5 is a massive number, but I don’t think it’s impossible that we see it push even higher ahead of this game. If Taylor Heinicke takes what the Chiefs defense will almost assuredly be happy to give him, this could be a fascinating shootout.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans
O/U 57.5
Predicted movement: Is it crazy that I’m not even sure the Chiefs should be favored in this game? The Kansas City defense, prior to a successful outing last week against Taylor Heinicke and the Football Team, has been one of the worst in the league this season. And while Washington had JD McKissic essentially leading its rushing attack last week, the Titans have a mid-size tractor with pull-away speed in their backfield. Derrick Henry is a complete and utter game-wrecker–and if he wrecked the previously stout Bills defense, you can bet your biscuits he’ll wreck the Chiefs’ unit. Another feather in Tennessee’s hat is getting this game at home, so the Titans won’t have to deal with the rowdy Arrowhead Stadium crowd.
Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and everything, but King Henry will be holding court Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs will end up favored, of course, but don’t be surprised if the margin is diminished when kickoff arrives. The 57.5-point total is the highest of the week, and it’s probably still going higher. Isn’t it? Let’s see if it can hit 60 before Sunday.
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants
O/U 43
Predicted movement: Just when you thought the Giants had one healthy play-maker to hang their hat on, breakout rookie Kadarius Toney goes and screws up his ankle even worse than it already was. He’ll likely miss Week 7. Saquon Barkley probably won’t suit up, either. Good luck, Danny Dimes. On the other side, Sam Darnold has posted a couple of clunkers in a row. He really misses Christian McCaffrey, but he’s just going to have to deal with it, as CMC has landed on Injured Reserve after what we have to assume was a setback in his return from a hamstring injury. With both sides undermanned in the backfield, Vegas has this matchup pegged as a defensive struggle. The 43-point total feels about right, but it’s hard to see the Panthers’ edge in the point spread going any higher than the field-goal margin at which it currently sits.
Atlant Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: He was once viewed as a bright up-and-comer head coaching hire, but after last Sunday morning’s debacle in London, I’m beginning to wonder whether Brian Flores survives the season in Miami. I mean, he lost to Urban Meyer, for goodness sake. The Dolphins apparently opted against having their bye week immediately following the London game. That feels like a logistical nightmare, but I guess we’ll see how they respond this week when they host the Falcons. Matt Ryan had a bounce-back effort before his Week 6 bye, and now he’ll get Calvin Ridley back to pair with an explosive Kyle Pitts. Both defenses are probably too porous to keep this game out of the mid-40s, but the script of this game feels like one of the more difficult to predict of the entire slate this week. The Falcons should remain favored by 2 to 3 points.
Sunday, October 24 — 4:05 p.m. EDT
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-14.5)
O/U 50.5
Predicted movement: Lord have mercy. Can the Rams score 51 points this week? If so, I guess I can buy the total being set just a shade above the half-century mark. But the Lions scoring any points seems like it would qualify as an upset. The revenge-game narrative only works when the player exacting his revenge is, uh, any good at football. Jared Goff facing his former teammate Aaron Donald, unfortunately, does not qualify. After what the Rams did to the Giants last week, the sky’s the limit on how many points you’ll have to lay on them by Sunday morning. Yes, the 14.5-point spread should probably increase. This is going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions.
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
O/U 49.5
Predicted movement: Beware of the Jalen Hurts garbage time curse. Hurts has gotten into the nasty habit of playing terrible, ugly football for the majority of the game before waving his hand and posting a couple of late touchdowns to cause bettors’ stomachs to turn. He’s rightfully an underdog again this week as the Eagles take to the road to meet up in Vegas with Rich Bisaccia’s inspired Raiders group. After losing Jon Gruden to his emails scandal, the Raiders rallied around one another last week for a 10-point road win over the Broncos–a truly impressive achievement. Though Vegas has had the Jekyll and Hyde thing going on this season, the current state of their team has them deserving of their favored status heading into Week 7. If we see any line movement here, expect it to continue to move toward the Raiders.
Sunday, October 24 — 4:25 p.m. EDT
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5)
O/U 47
Predicted movement: Our first of two massively lopsided late slate games in Week 7 features the Bears squaring off against their second future Hall of Famer in a row. Aaron Rodgers made quite a production of taking Chicago’s lunch money last week; Tom Brady may not be nearly as flamboyant about it, but he’s probably going to enjoy a similar result. Somehow, though, this 12.5-point line actually seems like it’s pretty spot on. It allows for the possibility that the Bears’ defense makes enough plays to keep things respectable. To do his part in making that happen, Justin Fields will need to show a level we haven’t seen out of him yet in the NFL. You can’t run on the Bucs, but you can throw on them. A general belief that Fields won’t be able to do it, though, could force Tampa close toward two TD favorites.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17.5)
O/U 47.5
Predicted movement: The NFL, in good conscience, cannot let this game take place. There have been a number of 20-plus-point spreads in NFL history. If ever there was a time for one of those, this would be it. The Cardinals should be favored by all the points. All of them. And if you betting the total, just guess how many points the Cardinals will score, and allow that number to dictate your stance on the total. Simple enough.
Sunday, October 24 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
O/U 44.5
Predicted movement: The 49ers may be without rookie QB Trey Lance this week after he sprained his left knee in his start before the team’s bye week. Luckily for the 49ers, Jimmy Garopollo is expected to return from a calf injury to his post as the starter for this Sunday night clash against the Colts. Offensively, San Francisco has been one of the more disappointing teams in the league this season. Injuries, though, have taken their toll on that side of the ball. Even without George Kittle, still on IR with a calf injury, getting Jimmy G back healthy should allow the 49ers to begin to establish some cohesion.
The Colts are feeling good after whooping the Texans last week, but they’re just not a particularly compelling team against quality competition. San Fran should provide that this week; expect the 49ers to sit in the 4-6 points range as favorites leading up to SNF.
Monday, October 25 — 8:15 p.m. EDT
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
O/U 43
Predicted movement: The Geno Smith experience for the Seahawks last Sunday night was especially upsetting. The backup quarterback kept the team in the game for a while, only to fumble away Seattle’s chance at a game-winning or game-tying drive on the final possession. The passing attack isn’t much of an attack, and Chris Carson is on IR to put a damper on the running game. The only thing sparing the Seahawks from a fate as underdogs by a touchdown or more is the fact that this game will take place in Seattle. Well, and Jameis Winston’s presence on the other side. You really never know what version of Winston you’re going to get. The spread and total shouldn’t move too terribly much from its current standing, as I can’t fathom anyone wanting to hitch their wagon to a wager on either side.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.