Early NFL Week 9 Lines and Predicted Movement (2021)
The NFL trade deadline came and went without a flurry of activity capable of impacting lines for upcoming games. Yes, DeShaun Watson is still (sort of) a Texan. Anyway, despite a quiet deadline, there are still plenty of newsworthy situations to monitor across the league this week that could send point spreads shifting in one direction or the other.
Let’s jump into the lines for Week 9. This week’s lines come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Thursday, November 4 — 8:20 p.m. EDT
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) | O/U 45.5
Predicted movement: It’s Mike White’s world; we’re just living in it. On Sunday, the 26-year-old made his first-ever NFL start at quarterback at the Meadowlands and guided his Jets to a thrilling win with over 400 yards passing, three touchdown strikes, and a nifty reception on a two-point conversion. His breakout effort was impressive enough in the eyes of Robert Saleh that the New York head coach immediately named White the Week 9 starter for Thursday night in Indianapolis.
On the other side of this TNF match-up, Carson Wentz is coming off a game in which his propensity for utterly inexplicable decisions once again proved costly to his team. However, despite Wentz’s boneheaded tendencies and the sensation that is Mike White, the Colts are the superior team on paper. Indy should theoretically have the ability to handle the Jets in a home game on a short week. Vegas agrees, setting the point spread at -10.5 and climbing. The line shouldn’t reach two touchdowns or anything crazy, but another point or so toward the Colts could happen.
Sunday, November 7 — 1:00 p.m. EDT
Buffalo Bills (-14) at Jacksonville Jaguars | O/U 49
Predicted movement: The BIlls seemed a little dazed in the first half of their Week 8 win over the Dolphins, playing a lesser Miami squad to a 3-3 tie at halftime. Josh Allen and Co. eventually pulled away for a 26-11 win, but they missed an opportunity to assert themselves against a weak divisional opponent indeed. Vegas expects the Bills to take out some of those lingering frustrations on another crummy team in Week 9, as Buffalo opens as two-touchdown favorites over the Jaguars.
Urban’s bunch was riding high after its big win in London in Week 6, but the bye week seemed to tank the momentum. The Seahawks asserted their will entirely and unceasingly over Jacksonville last week, and it seems plausible the Bills will do the same in Week 9. The spread hasn’t yet moved off its 14-point margin, and some of that could be due to the Jags getting the home-team bump here. But it’s hard to imagine the money won’t pour in on Buffalo to boost that number throughout the rest of the week. The total has fallen a half-point since it opened, and it could trend further in that direction, considering the likelihood that Jacksonville won’t carry its weight offensively.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers | O/U 41
Predicted movement: Sam Darnold is bad, but P.J. Walker might be worse. After the former suffered a concussion Sunday, his career 1:5 TD-to-INT ratio in tow, the latter entered in relief. He left with the same rate but a depleted completion percentage following a 3-for-15 outing. Somehow, the Panthers hung on to win the game, a testament to Matt Rhule’s defense and ball-control philosophy that he’s publicly expressed the desire to implement more strongly. Darnold seems unlikely to start Sunday, and it’s difficult to gauge what his presence would do for the line even if that changes. Ultimately, Darnold still probably boosts Carolina slightly above what Walker offers.
Christian McCaffrey news is likely to inch this line in one direction or the other. Given the vague nature of Rhule’s comments about his status, I don’t expect he’ll play Sunday, so look for the line to slide further in favor of the road-team Patriots. Bill Belichick should have fun teeing up his defense for the P.J. Walker Experience.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) | O/U 47
Predicted movement: It’s crazy to think that the Bengals could lose to the Jets one week and still open the next one favored to beat the once-feared Cleveland Browns. The line makes sense, though, as the Browns have suddenly lost three of their last four. Their lone win in that stretch came over a mediocre Broncos team. The losses have been ugly, with Cleveland’s offense sputtering over its previous three contests. Odell Beckham is a total non-factor. I guess if you’re the Browns, there are worse situations for your struggling offense than getting to face a defense that just got torched by Mike White? Silver linings.
For the Bengals, though, this should be a bounceback game. Their offense wasn’t the problem in the loss to New York, so you figure the Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase show will roll on in Week 9. The juice right now is on the Bengals, but crossing over that three-point threshold seems dicey. It might get to -3, but moving much beyond that magnetic number probably doesn’t happen.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6) | O/U 42.5
Predicted movement: If you’re wondering how things are going for the Falcons, the Saints are favored by nearly a touchdown, with the distinct possibility that Trever Siemian is their starting quarterback for the game. Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the Week 8 win over the Bucs. To his credit, Siemian managed the heck out of that game down the stretch to push New Orleans to victory. But long-term, he doesn’t feel like a particularly viable option–so much so that Philip Rivers felt compelled to say this week that he would listen if the Saints called about their quarterback need at some point this season.
Taysom Hill is the name to watch concerning this point spread ahead of Sunday. Saints head coach Sean Payton noted that Hill was “on schedule†to recover from a Week 5 concussion. That’s a lengthy lay-off, however, so we can’t just assume that Hill will be a full-go this week and ready to resume his NFL quarterbacking career after spending the early portion of the season as a gadget-man behind Winston. Nevertheless, Hill probably gives the Saints the best chance to thrive on Sunday with his unique skill set. Confirmation on his status, good or bad, will likely shift the spread in one way or the other later this week.
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Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-9) | O/U 49.5
Predicted movement: No Dak, no problem for the Dallas Cowboys? Cooper Rush filled in admirably for the star quarterback on Sunday Night Football last week. The win wasn’t stunning for Dallas, but hey, a win is a win in this league. Dak is expected to practice in full ahead of the team’s Week 9 clash with the Broncos. Though the Cowboys wanted to be careful with him last week, it would be surprising to see him miss another game with the ailing calf. Full confirmation of Prescott’s status later in the week should vault the Cowboys into double-digit territory as favorites over a Denver team that will struggle to keep pace with the intensity of the Dallas offense.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at New York Giants | O/U 46.5
Predicted movement: This spread is teetering toward a tumble after the horrific Henry Ruggs news Tuesday. The Raiders released Ruggs Tuesday night following his DUI arrest after causing a tragic fatality. This is a team that has been through so much turmoil in recent weeks. So it would be understandable to see Sunday’s game against the Giants become a low-scoring slog, a viewpoint reflected by the drop-off already in the total, from 47.5 to 46.5.
The Giants played the Chiefs tough on Monday Night Football, limiting Patrick Mahomes and continuing what has been a bizarre year for the Kansas City offense. Their team tendencies combined with the harsh reality of the heartbreak within the Raiders organization this week should push the spread closer to a pick’em. As a result, the total should drop precipitously.
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6) | O/U 50
Predicted movement: My level of trust in Kirk Cousins to orchestrate an offense capable of pulling its weight toward a point total in the 50s is minimal after watching his performance against Dallas on Sunday. Honestly, though, it’s hard to decide who was more sluggish between Cousins, Mike Zimmer and Klint Kubiak. Everything involved with that offense just made me sad.
Perhaps that helps explain why the Ravens have already gone from -5 to -6 on the spread. However, something tells me there might be a little more movement where that came from over the next few days. Coming off a bye week with ample time to rest and rejuvenate, Lamar Jackson’s group gets a home game against a Vikings defense that just gave up a game-winning drive to Cooper Rush. It just feels like the Ravens should be favored by more than this. By Sunday, they might be.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-6.5) | O/U 46.5
Predicted movement: Tyrod Taylor is the name to watch for this point spread, which has already shifted from its opening position at Dolphins -7 to Dolphins -6.5. That could be an indication of a glimmer of hope for Taylor’s status as he works to return from IR. The Davis Mills Experience has been ugly for Houston; if he remains in the starting role for another week, the line should jump back up to a touchdown in favor of Miami.
With the DeShaun Watson trade rumors now a thing of the past–at least for 2021–Tua Tagovailoa has an opportunity to light it up on Sunday for whatever reason that motivates him best. As retribution for those doubting him as the Miami starter, stick it to the Texans, who were never interested in him in any Watson swap. Whatever narrative works, Tua can write it Sunday.
Sunday, November 7 — 4:05 p.m. EDT
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Philadelphia Eagles | O/U 50
Predicted movement: The Philadelphia Eagles looked fantastic on Sunday, but then again, any team facing the Detroit Lions should. Hopefully, the 44-6 beatdown of the winless Lions didn’t present the Eagles with any false sense of self heading into this week against an actual NFL opponent. It appears Vegas hasn’t been fooled by the facade, either. Though the Chargers dropped a contested Week 8 game to the Patriots, they still find themselves road favorites over the Eagles, at least for now. Los Angeles opened -2.5 before the line dipped down to -2. That movement doesn’t make a ton of sense to us. The public is buying into the flimsy narratives established by the results of Week 8 games. We’ll be interested to see which way the wind blows on the line leading up to game time, but in the end, Los Angeles should remain favored by a small margin.
Sunday, November 7 — 4:25 p.m. EDT
Arizona Cardinals (-1) at San Francisco 49ers | O/U 46
Predicted movement: Jimmy Garoppolo appears to have staved off the true arrival of Trey Lance for at least another week based on his impressive effort in Chicago. Jimmy G got the ship back on course for the San Francisco offense just in time for him to face an angry Arizona team, which fell from its undefeated perch in Week 8.
To an extent, Garoppolo enters this game still playing for his job and long-term security as an NFL starter. He missed the 49ers’ other game against the Cardinals this season due to injury. The Cardinals are playing to prove they’re still the class of a daunting NFC West division. Either Vegas believes in some combination of the Jimmy G resurgence, the 49ers running game, its improving defense–or this Kyler Murray injury is of some legitimate concern.
Even in their home stadium, the 49ers haven’t been consistent enough this year to be a near pick’em against the Cardinals. Keep a close eye on Murray’s status throughout the week. The total is going to plummet, too, if Kyler proves to be on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday afternoon.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1) | O/U 54
Predicted movement: The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites over the Packers before Kansas City played against the Giants Monday night. As that game ensued, the pick left the board and reappeared Tuesday as Chiefs -1. That’s a little better, but I’m still wondering whether the Chiefs’ brand name should carry as much weight as it seems to be doing. Kansas City is not the same team right now as bettors and sports fans recognize from recent years.
That’s the backdrop of their Week 9 date with the Green Bay Packers, who are fresh off slaying the last unbeaten team in the league the week prior. Even without Davante Adams, Green Bay waltzed into Arizona and shocked the Cardinals on Thursday night. Adams is expected to return from the COVID list in time to take on the Chiefs. If he does, it should give the Packers another slight boost toward this game becoming a pick’em.
Kansas City sincerely shouldn’t be favored in this game, not even at home. Sure, sure, just when you doubt them is probably the moment they rise from the ashes to reclaim their throne. But against a porous KC defense, I expect Aaron Rodgers to have something to say about that on Sunday.
Sunday, November 7 — 8:25 p.m. EDT
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) | O/U 54
Predicted movement: It’s a sad day in the kingdom, as a foot injury has conquered King Henry. Derrick Henry underwent successful surgery this week. He will now likely progress toward using his superhuman genes to recover on the short side of the 6-to-10 week estimate for his return. What remains for the Titans is an offense in search of an identity overhaul. Ryan Tannehill could now be charged with leading a more aerial-based assault on opposing defenses. The Vegas total on this Sunday night game against the high-flying Rams indicates a belief that Tannehill is up for the challenge. However, if the Titans’ offense suddenly can’t function on the same level without Henry, this number feels lofty.
Then again, the Rams are more than capable of hanging 30+ points on even the most competent of defenses. And Tennessee hasn’t precisely been sterling on that side of the ball. Couple that with the knowledge that their ball control efforts won’t look quite the same anymore and that 54 doesn’t seem crazy. On the spread, Rams -7.5 feels spot on. If there’s movement, it should favor the home team in Los Angeles in what should be a compelling primetime matchup.
Monday, November 8 — 8:15 p.m. EDT
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) | O/U 40
Predicted movement: Justin Fields had some sensational moments in Week 8, but they came in vain as the 49ers left Soldier Field with a convincing win. Now Fields must take on another hard-nosed defense hell-bent on making him pay for his pocket-escaping predilections.
The Steelers aren’t winning pretty, but they are winning. Week 8’s triumph over Cleveland made it three in a row for a Pittsburgh team as reliant as ever on its defense and running game. The short passing game extends that effort, as the Steelers will look to hang onto the football and march it ever-so methodically down the field on the Chicago defense.
The total for this game is 40. Given the potential for a genuinely horrifying slog, that number might be high. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see it drop into the upper-30s. Nevertheless, the Steelers should remain favored handily, as they do what the Bears do stylistically, just a little better. And Pittsburgh gets this primetime game at home. With touchdowns expected to be in short supply, it’s hard to imagine the line moving any further toward Pittsburgh.
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Brenden Schaeffer is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Brenden, check out his archive and follow him @bschaeffer12.