Early Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: BettingPros Staff Picks (2022)
The dust has settled on the 2022 NFL Draft, and sportsbooks have begun the process of updating their NFL odds based on the results. This ended up being one of the more memorable NFL Drafts in recent history, with several trades shaking up NFL rosters and just one quarterback (Pitt’s Kenny Pickett) being selected in the first round. So, what do the current Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds look like now that the NFL Draft is over?
Our very own Matthew Freedman, Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, and Derek Brown took an early look at the lines and made their picks for Offensive Rookie of the Year based on what we currently know about each player and their landing spot.
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Matt Corral (+2000)
Matt Corral has the longest odds to win Rookie of the Year among the quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. But I’d argue that his path to seeing the field is equal to if not better than both Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder. Carolina spent the entire offseason trying to find a new quarterback, before ultimately being left with Sam Darnold as their only option with zero draft capital to work with.
And if Carrol becomes the starter, it’s hard to not love the offensive situation he is falling into. Carolina’s roster was already set up extremely well after addressing needs in free agency. And they solved their glaring hole at left tackle with Ikem Ekwonu.
Equipped with a revamped offensive line along with D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffery — Corral could make some noise in a relatively weak NFC. Offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo was the major driving force behind Carolina selecting Corral in the first place, so it remains to be seen how committed the new Panthers’ play caller is to Darnold — a quarterback he was not involved in bringing in last season.
– Andrew Erickson
Treylon Burks (+750)
Burks isn’t a perfect WR prospect. At the Combine, he proved to be neither as big nor as fast as NFL personnel departments had hoped. But if Burks does hit the upper end of his range of outcomes, he’s going to absolutely smash in a Titans offense that has a flashing neon “VACANCY†sign turned on for an alpha receiver now that A.J. Brown has been dealt to the Cardinals. Robert Woods is a fine wide receiver, but he’s no alpha. Burks was an alpha at the University of Arkansas, and if the Titans scheme him the ball as aggressively as the Razorbacks did, Burks could have 100 receptions — and a 100-catch season would be a golden credential in the Offensive Rookie of the Year chase.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Kenny Pickett (+600)
Yes, I know picking the favorite to win this award isn’t the sexy or eye-popping choice here. Over the last 12 years of this award, 50% of the recipients have been quarterbacks, with Justin Herbert taking home the hardware last in 2020. Kenny Pickett is currently the only quarterback with the draft capital to have a realistic shot at starting Week 1. While Matt Corral could conceivably have an easy path to playing time, this also comes down to wins. The Steelers have the talent around Pickett and the defense to back him that could lead to a playoff berth and as a darkhorse for the division title. If Pittsburgh makes a wild card berth and Pickett posts above-average counting stats, he could easily take home the gold.
– Derek Brown
Kenny Pickett (+600)
Since 2004, we’ve seen an increasing percentage of first-round quarterbacks start as rookies. With that trend, quarterbacks have won nine of the past 18 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, whereas only one quarterback earned the award from 1967 to 2003. The quarterbacks who win OROY start 13-plus games — and Kenny Pickett is the only rookie passer likely to open the season as a starter. At DraftKings, no rookie receiver has a season-long yardage prop of even 900 yards, and running backs Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker might be respectively held back by the Jets and Seahawks offenses. Pickett has a strong supporting cast of playmakers, and his overall competition for the award is limited. Odds from Caesars.
– Matthew Freedman
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