Early Parlay Bet for Super Bowl LV
We’ve got some momentum heading into Super Bowl LV, as my parlay for last weekend hit! I used my high expectations for Kansas City (and my low expectations for Josh Allen) to shape that play, and my assumptions proved justified.
It’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks when you’re betting far in advance. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Super Bowl Sunday.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Super Bowl LV. Since it’s just one game, I’ll use FanDuel’s same-game parlay tool for this play.
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#1. Tyreek Hill Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Let’s do some quick math. Tyreek Hill ran the 40-yard dash in 4.34 seconds. The cornerback that Tampa Bay trusted to cover him in Week 12, Carlton Davis, ran it in 4.53 seconds. Since he runs at 9.2 yards per second, Hill would need just 2.7 seconds to generate a full yard of separation from Davis.
Maybe that’s why Hill went for 269 yards and three scores in that game.
It’s not just Hill, though, as the Buccaneers have allowed big plays to opposing wideouts throughout the playoffs. Last week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4.37 40-yard dash) toasted them for a 50-yard touchdown, and he ended up with 115 receiving yards. Tre’Quan Smith (4.49 40-yard dash) caught a 56-yard bomb from Jamies Winston in the Divisional Round; he finished with 85 receiving yards on only three targets. Even Washington connected for a big play downfield against Tampa Bay, as Cam Sims (4.64 40-yard dash) caught a 36-yard pass from Taylor Heinicke en route to 104 total receiving yards.
While I doubt that the Buccaneers will leave Davis one-on-one with Hill again, they aren’t exactly deep in the secondary, as rookie safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missed last Sunday’s NFC Championship with a back injury. Tampa Bay will need him back if they hope to stop Hill.
It’s also worth noting that Tampa Bay didn’t have their other starting perimeter cornerback, Jamel Dean, when they last played the Chiefs. Dean has elite speed, proven by his 4.30 40-yard dash time, and he could help keep Hill from posting 200-plus yards again.
Fortunately, you don’t need Hill to reproduce his 269-yard showing from Week 12 for this line to cash. You just need him to get barely under one-third of the yards he got back then.
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#2. Chiefs First Half ML — Inc. Tie (-135)
The Buccanneers haven’t been a great first-half team. Sure, they beat the Packers by 11 first-half points last weekend, but they barely forced the Saints to a tie. Overall, the Buccaneers rank fourth in first-half points per game (15.6), but they also give up 12th-most first-half points per game (13.0).
Also, they’re worse in the first half than Kansas City. The Chiefs outperform the Buccaneers in first-half points per game (15.7) and first-half points allowed per game (11.2), good for a 4.5-point average margin of victory. They also throttled Tampa Bay by a 13-point margin in the first half of Week 12’s game; most of the Buccaneers’ offensive production came long after the game had been decided.
While I don’t expect another blowout next Sunday, I do think that Kansas City will get out to a hot enough start to win the first half — especially if Tampa Bay continues to struggle against Tyreek Hill.
#3. Buccaneers and Chiefs Over 48.5 — Alternate Spread (-280)
These two teams rank top-five in points per game — Tampa Bay scores 30.7; Kansas City scores 29.6. That’s good for 60.3 total points. However, they combine to allow only 44.7 points per game, so I’d prefer to avoid the posted total (56.5).
The Chiefs and Buccaneers combined for 51 points when they played in Week 12. To be fair, 14 of Tampa Bay’s points came in garbage time, so I’m not super confident about playing 50.5 as an odds sweetener. Instead, I’d take two extra points of breathing room in case the defenses step up next Sunday.
Total Odds: +340
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.