Navigate

Early Super Bowl LX Same Game Parlay: Seahawks vs. Patriots

by |

The Seahawks and Patriots will square off for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites, which was a significant consideration for the first two legs of the following four-leg Super Bowl LX same-game parlay (SGP). The final two legs account for New England’s stout run defense. Of course, don’t forget to boost the odds on your Super Bowl same-game parlay with our NFL Same Game Parlay Builder.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

    Super Bowl LX Same Game Parlay

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots 

    Drake Maye’s legs have been a critical part of New England’s Super Bowl run. He’s toted the rock 10, four and 10 times against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos. Maye’s rushing ability can be tapped into on designed runs. However, he’s also a talented scrambler.

    Maye’s willingness to scramble will play a sizable role in his exceeding 6.5 rush attempts in the Super Bowl. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, the Patriots were fifth in pass rate over expectation (5.5% PROE) in the regular season. Dropbacks open the door to scrambling opportunities. Maye will likely have ample dropbacks when the game’s in a neutral game script, and the Patriots are underdogs, which could force him to drop back in a negative game script. Additionally, if the Patriots pull off the upset, Maye could have the opportunity to kneel the clock out, which would count toward his over for rush attempts.

    The Patriots could also feel compelled to air it out, given Seattle’s elite run defense. According to SumerSports, the Seahawks were first in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush (-0.15) in the regular season.

    Seattle has terrorized running backs. They’ve allowed an NFL-low 3.60 yards per carry and 73.7 rushing yards per game to running backs in 19 games this season. Rhamondre Stevenson was piling up efficient rushing yardage down the stretch before amassing only 2.8 yards per carry on 25 attempts against the Broncos in the AFC Conference Championship.

    New England’s lead running back will likely find it difficult to rush efficiently against the Seahawks. He’s also unlikely to tote the rock 20+ times again in the Super Bowl if the game goes according to the spread (Patriots +4.5 points). Before Stevenson exploded for 16 carries in the Divisional Round and 25 in the AFC Conference Championship, he hit double-digit carries only twice in his previous seven games. Stevenson will need to be an outlier against Seattle’s run defense to surpass 51.5 rushing yards against them, making the under an appealing leg.

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had a sensational season. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, he has recorded the following stats in 19 games this season:

    • 91.9% route participation rate
    • 11.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
    • 47.9% air yards share
    • 32.4% target share
    • 0.32 targets per route run (TPRR)
    • 43.7% first-read rate
    • 173 targets (9.1 per game)
    • 132 receptions (6.9 per game)
    • 1,965 receiving yards (103.4 per game)
    • 3.68 yards per route run (YPRR)
    • 11.36 yards per target
    • 14.89 yards per reception

    Smith-Njigba barbecued the Rams for 153 receiving yards in the NFC Conference Championship Game, rebounding from his 19 yards in Seattle’s 41-6 victory against the 49ers in the Divisional Round. He had at least 80 receiving yards in 15 out of 19 games this season. FantasyPros projects Smith-Njigba for 95 receiving yards against the Patriots, putting him comfortably over his prop line.

    Kenneth Walker emerged as a receiving weapon for the Seahawks after a slow start through the air this season. In 10 games since Week 11, Walker has logged the following stats:

    • 33.4% route participation rate
    • 9.6% target share
    • 0.26 TPRR
    • 9.3% first-read rate
    • 29 targets (2.9 per game)
    • 27 receptions (2.7 per game)
    • 277 receiving yards (27.7 per game)
    • 2.47 YPRR
    • 9.55 yards per target
    • 10.26 yards per reception

    Walker has exploded for 29 and 49 receiving yards in two playoff games. He’s also reached at least 15 receiving yards in three straight games, four of his last five and seven of his last 10 games. Thus, FantasyPros projects Walker for 18.6 receiving yards against the Patriots, rounding out our four-leg same-game parlay.

    Parlay Odds: +625

    Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.


    Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

    BettingPros App