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Falcons vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Falcons vs. Buccaneers.

NFL Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) vs. Atlanta Falcons (ATL) – Buccaneers (-2.5)

This game was one that stuck to me the most initially when I first glanced at the Week 7 slate. And it comes down to the simple fact that the Atlanta Falcons are a team that you want to fade on the road, even though they are coming off a loss at home. They actually had a NUMBER of opportunities to cover the spread last week in the fourth quarter, but they came up just short.

Atlanta is 0-2 on the road this season, averaging 6.5 points per game.

Tampa Bay's defense has been solid.

Definition of bend, but don't break defensive unit. No.1 in the red zone, but 31st on the third downs. Teams can move easily on the Bucs between the 20s, but they tighten up in the red zone.

And they have limited points to high-powered offenses like the Eagles/Lions. I would put the Falcons in a clear tier below those two units, if not farther down with Desmond Ridder as their starting QB.

My only concern with Tampa Bay is that Atlanta is overdue for positive turnover regression, while the Buccaneers are on the negative side of the spectrum.

Tampa Bay is second in plus turnover margin, while the Falcons rank 27th. While those descriptive stats suggest TB should have the turnover edge, it's noisy when it comes to projecting them weekly. Turnovers by nature are fluky. However, there's no denying that Ridder's third-ranked turnover-worthy play rate (14 total this season) suggests that the Buccaneers should come away with the turnover battle.

Tampa Bay is also an elite run defense - 7th fewest rushing yards allowed per game –  which further puts Atlanta's offense in a tough position if they have to rely solely on their passing attack.

As for the totals, I am sure you can guess this one coming. Under. Atlanta's defense is underrated, boasting the 6th best red zone unit and the second-best third-down conversion rate.

Atlanta is 5-1 toward the under this season. Buccaneers are 4-1 toward the under. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

Kyle Pitts might struggle in this matchup. He mostly aligns in the slot and that is where TB has been excellent versus tight ends-the 5th-fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs in the slot. Buccaneers are a tough matchup for TEs anyway allowing just 39 yards per game to the position. 3rd-lowest yards per reception. 0 TDs to tight ends because they have the no. 1 red-zone defense.

For additional props, you want to target the middle of the Falcons defense. Their biggest weakness is their slot CB, Dee Alford, which could lead to a highly involved day for Chris Godwin. Alford ranks second in targets and catches allowed from the slot this season. Godwin has 6-plus receptions in back-to-back games with at least 5 catches in all but one game this season.

Also, Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton is set up extremely nicely in this matchup. He plays all the snaps for the Buccaneers and Atlanta is a plus-matchup for tight ends. No. 2-ranked prop on the prop bet analyzer.

Atlanta is allowing the 9th-most yards and 6th-most receptions to TEs this season.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet loves the Bijan Robinson over prop on his receptions and I tend to agree. No. 1-ranked prop on the prop bet analyzer.

It's listed at 3.5 catches when he is projected for 4.3 receptions. He's 5-1 toward the over on that number this season as he leads all RBs in catches while tying his team with Drake London for the most receptions on the team.

But it's not love for all RBs. Rachaad White has rushed for 50 yards just twice this season behind the poor Buccaneers blocking unit. The Falcons have the second-best run defense in terms of expected points contributed this season. But my favorite White prop has to do with his receiving numbers. Atlanta has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and fewest receptions per game to RBs this season. Bet the under on White's 3.5 receptions prop.

My Picks:

  • Buccaneers -2.5 (-110 BetMGM)
  • Under 37 (-110 DrafKings Sportsbook)

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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