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Falcons vs. Jaguars: NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Falcons vs. Jaguars.

NFL Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Atlanta Falcons (JAC -3)

Our first game in London kicks off in Week 4, with the Jaguars "hosting" the Atlanta Falcons for the first of their two games played across the pond (in back-to-back weeks no less).

Opened as Jags -4, the line has moved with some Falcons money. The Jaguars have struggled in back-to-back weeks, following losses to the Chiefs and Texans. However, the losses were most self-inflicted, especially last week. Lost a fumble, interception, drops, and missed field goals. A blocked FG. Kick-off return allowed for a touchdown on a short kickoff. 1-3 in the red zone. 5 for 13 on third downs. They had 400 net yards and lost. Again, self-inflicted wounds killed the Jaguars for the second straight week.

Atlanta's defense has been solid thus far, but they have allowed an average of 22 points per game over their last two matchups. They allowed over 350 yards on defense in their first road matchup last week versus Detroit last week (243 passing yards) after keeping opposing passing games under 150 passing yards at home through the first two games. They also lost handily by two touchdowns, in a game that was never particularly within striking distance.

Overall, the Dirty Birds ranks 6th in pressure rate. I don't think their defense will roll over against a struggling Jaguars offense, but I don't think they hold them under 20 points. Because when Doug Pederson took back play-calling duties in the second half versus the Texans, they immediately scored on the opening drive. They totaled 17 points in the second half alone.

As for the Falcons offense versus the Jaguars defense, I am giving the edge to the home team in this spot. Desmond Ridder has been the 7th-most pressured QB over the last two games. If he's not kept upright in a clean pocket, he doesn't perform. The Jaguars will be able to put pressure on Ridder to disrupt him. Their defense ranks first in hurry percentage and 4th in total pressures. But they have just five sacks. Look for some regression to kick in against Desmond Ridder who owns the fourth-highest pressure-to-sack rate percentage (29%) this season. Ridder is also notorious for playing better at home than on the road, as are the Falcons under Arthur Smith. Atlanta averaged fewer than 18 points per game on the road last season.

The Falcons QB also leads the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate (6.1%), which suggests he's overdue to turn the ball over. He only has thrown one interception this season to go along with two fumbles (one lost).

The Jaguars’ defense has also been solid versus the ground game this season ranking 6th in yards per carry and 7th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game. If they can limit the Falcons' ground attack and force Atlanta to rely on a more pass-heavy game script, they should be able to come away with a win by at least three points.

I'm probably shying away from the total at 43.5 with my lean toward the under. Opened at 45.5, so not sure there's value in betting a worse number.

Would much rather attack the offenses through player props on the Jaguars’ side of the ball. Travis Etienne Jr. got fed out of the gates in the second half of last week's game versus the Texans totaling 32 yards on three carries. With Pederson taking over play calling, I expect ETN to get fed. Bet the over. Atlanta is allowing an average of 69 rushing yards to opposing No. 1 RBs this season. His projection in the prop bet cheat sheet loves the over as well, forecasting him for 75.5 rushing yards.

Evan Engram has gone over 40.5 receiving yards in all three of his games this season. The Falcons rank 5th in catches, 12th in yards (53) and 7th in targets (8) to tight ends this season.

Bijan's receiving props are too low. He's had at least 27 receiving yards in all three of his games. He leads all RBs in target share (21%) and is the No. 1 target on his own offense. The Jaguars’ defense has been devasted after the catch this season, allowing the most YAC while ranking 6th in missed tackles. The rookie ranks 6th in total YAC this season.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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