Falcons vs. Panthers: NFL Week 1 Picks & Player Prop Bets (2023)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Stay tuned for an exciting journey through the world of NFL betting - it’s time to elevate your game! Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 1 games. And below I offer my top picks and player prop bets for Falcons vs. Panthers.
NFL Betting Primer: Falcons vs. Panthers
Atlanta Falcons (ATL) vs. Carolina Panthers (CAR) – Spread: CAR +3.5
I spoke glowingly about the Atlanta Falcons in my NFC South: Picks & Predictions article released this past summer. I believe that the Falcons boast the best overall odds to win their division and that starts in Week 1 versus the Panthers. Carolina's OL looked completely overmatched during preseason contests and the offense is severely lacking weaponry on the offensive side of the ball. That will put them significantly behind the 8-ball versus a revamped Falcons defense that should take a step forward in 2023 with the additions of Jeff Okudah, Calais Campbell, Jessie Bates, Kaden Elliss, Bud Dupree, etc. Eliss reunites with new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen from their days spent in New Orleans. I'll take that defense at home versus a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. It's by no coincidence that the Panthers have the third-lowest implied team total on the slate. I am really not sure how the Panthers actually plan on moving the ball and sustaining drives.
Sure, the books aren't high on the Falcons scoring a ton of points - 21.75 implied points, 18th - but I'm confident they will provide the most offensive points in this game. I am confident that second-year QB Desmond Ridder can be competent enough to distribute the ball to his playmakers and let them take care of the rest. Marcus Mariota threw multiple TDs in just four of his games last season for the Falcons. Two games versus the Panthers (5 passing TDs total). Ride the Ridder's perfect home winning streak. The former Cincinnati quarterback has never lost a home game in college or the pros.
Considering the low overall total in this game (39.5), I am not expecting insane passing yardage totals from either side. Therefore, I am going under on Kyle Pitts' 37.5 receiving yards prop, after he posted poor route participation during the preseason. We have not seen Pitts play a game with Ridder at the NFL level, and Arthur Smith seems to prefer Drake London and Bijan Robinson as his two featured pieces on offense. Given that Pitts went over this number just three times in 10 games last season...the under is the move on the talent yet misused Falcons tight end, who was listed as a co-starter with tight end Jonnu Smith on the team's depth chart.
- My picks: Falcons -3.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 17.5 points Carolina Team Total (-122 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: TE Kyle Pitts UNDER 38.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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