Falcons vs. Seahawks NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)
Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Falcons vs. Seahawks.
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Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Sides:
- The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-4 as home favorites on the money line.
- The Falcons are 8-13-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-5 straight up.
- However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons' last 18 games.
- The Falcons are 4-5 ATS on the road, 2-4 ATS as road favorites, and 5-12 ATS on the road straight up.
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Falcons have won four of their last five games.
- Atlanta is 9-4 on the money line as home favorites (14-8 at home overall).
- The Falcons ATS as a home favorite are 5-8 ATS (38%)
- The favorites have won 18 of the Seahawks' last 21 games.
- Seattle is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games played (4-9-1 over the last 12 games).
- Seattle is 10-3 as a favorite in the last 13 games.
- The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
- The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
- The Seahawks are 4-6-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 11 games.
- Seattle is 4-3 as home underdogs overall and ATS.
- The Seahawks have covered the spread in four of their last seven games as underdogs.
- Seattle as the road underdog ATS is 6-8 (43%). As away underdogs on the money line? 3-11 (21%).
Totals:
- Atlanta is 2-2 towards the over this season at home, averaging just under 46 points per game.
- The Falcons are 3-3 O/U this season.
- Four of the Falcons' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Seahawks’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Seahawks' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Six of the Seahawks' last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Seattle, off extended rest, will head to the East Coast to take on the surging Atlanta Falcons, winners of three straight. The Seahawks have dropped three straight after starting the season 3-0, courtesy of a cupcake opening schedule. Seattle has been terrible against the number all season, with a 1-4-1 ATS record.
However, I love Geno Smith in this spot against the Falcons defense. Per Next Gen Stats, Geno Smith has been at his best when kept clean this season, recording a 61.7% success rate when not pressured (1st), compared to 30.2% when under pressure (21st). The Falcons have only pressured the quarterback on 23.0% of their dropbacks, the only team under 25%. Despite this, they keep the offense in front of them as they have the 2nd-lowest air yards per attempt (5.4) and have only allowed 4.1 yards after catch per reception (2nd) on plays without pressure.
Even though the Falcons have been able to "limit" production without a pass rush to some extent, Smith's strengths from a clean pocket look like an edge to me. Seattle loves to throw as they rank first in pass rate over expectation this season.
The Falcons are solid at defending the short-quick passing game but have struggled against long and intermediate throws.
Seattle's run game should also be solid, given that Atlanta doesn't do much to stack the box against the run. Atlanta has been horrible defending lightbox fronts (3rd-most yards allowed) while using their defense in that formation at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.
Last week, this was a smash spot for Chuba Hubbard. Seattle ranks sixth in yards per carry against light boxes and first in explosive run rate.
The Falcons are also bad against rushing inside the tackles (29th in EPA/rush). Seattle ranks third in EPA/rush inside the tackles, with seven rushing touchdowns.
Seattle will move the ball in this game, as will the Falcons.
In the last three weeks, Seattle's defense has allowed an average of well over 400 yards of offense to the Lions (okay), Giants (yikes), and 49ers (okay). Their run defense has been a sieve, but DT Byron Murphy might play this week. Mike Macdonald said he anticipates the availability of Tariq Woolen will "Come down to the wire" for Sunday.
Either way, Seattle's defense has struggled against better competition, and I'd expect nothing less with the Falcons playing at home.
I don't expect nearly the same rushing production we saw from Atlanta last week - especially in the red zone where Seattle ranks No.1 in EPA/rush - but their passing game can pick up the slack. Seattle's been vastly overrated all season, so I'll take the Falcons at home, laying three points. My BettingPros projections had this game closer to Atlanta -3.5. And although the total is already high - it's been bet up since opening at 48 - I am riding the over train.
Shootout on deck. Five of the Seahawks’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
Props:
Per Next Gen Stats, DK Metcalf has accumulated 212 of his 469 yards and both of his touchdowns on go routes, the most yards gained by any player on a single route this season. Metcalf has been particularly effective at go routes this season compared to previous years, posting career-highs in catch rate over expected (+4.9%) and EPA per route (0.12).
Metcalf led Seattle in targets with 11 (23% Target share) for the Seahawks last Thursday night but only managed 48 yards on three receptions, one of them being a 30-yard gain. Metcalf was targeted three times in the red zone but caught just one and did not score a touchdown. Metcalf had 166 air yards and a 41% air-yard share, making him the quintessential buy-low candidate based on his opportunity alone. Atlanta has allowed 7th-most receiving yards (81) and third-most targets (9.6) to opposing No.1 WRs this season.
The Falcons have allowed the 6th-most completions per game to quarterbacks this season (23.2). Geno Smith is on a five-game streak of going OVER his pass completion prop with at least 26 completions in every game since Week 2. Metcalf has three games with 100-plus yards and three with fewer than 60 yards this season.
Per Next Gen Stats, Bijan Robinson has faced a light box on 62.2% of his carries this season, the 3rd-highest among running backs (minimum 25 carries).
Robinson has generated the fastest average speed among running backs by the time he reaches the line of scrimmage at 11.54 mph. When facing light box defenses, Robinson pairs this speed with shiftiness in space, as he has forced 15 missed tackles against light boxes (1st) for an extra 81 yards gained from such missed tackles (T-3rd). The Seahawks have allowed a league-high 6.3 yards per carry on designed runs when utilizing light box defenses this season.
My Picks: