Federated Auto Parts 400 NASCAR Betting Odds, Picks & Preview (2022)

by Isaiah Sirois |
Aug 10, 2022

Last weekendâ€™s NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan produced an upset winner: Kevin Harvick. His victory means that 15 different drivers have won races this year, putting Ryan Blaney on the playoff bubble and Martin Truex Jr. out of the playoffs. Both drivers will have to put their best foot forward this weekend, and they make for solid picks to win the Federated Auto Parts 400.

Kyle Larsonâ€™s solid day earned this column a 1.25u payout, which was enough for us to profit .75u after Larson and Austin Dillon failed to cash the other plus-money markets we targeted them on.

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Odds to Win the Federated Auto Parts 400

Best Picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400

At .75 miles long, Richmond Raceway is somewhere between a short track and an intermediate. One-mile circuits like New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Gateway Motorsports Park, and Phoenix Raceway serve as strong comparator tracks. I will also look at Martinsville Speedway and Dover Motor Speedway when handicapping this event.

1. Winner A: Martin Truex Jr. | +600 (.25u) at DraftKings

Truex opened at +700 but has seen his number drop as far as +550. Bettors with confidence in the Toyota driver should either get their action down quickly or hope for a poor performance in qualifying. Since Truex qualified sixth here in the spring, I'd advise just playing the +600 at DraftKings before it dips to +550 or lower.

The veteran has been exceptional at Richmond lately. Truex finished fourth here in the spring after leading the third-most laps. Last season, he won the fall race and finished fifth in the spring. He placed second here in 2020's lone event and swept both races in 2019. Truex hasn't finished worse than fifth at Richmond since he joined Joe Gibbs Racing, and he owns an average finish of 2.3 here with the team.

Truex's performances at comparator tracks also inspire confidence. He led the most lap at New Hampshire before finishing fourth. He also led 42 laps at Gateway before finishing sixth, and he led five laps at Dover before finishing 12th. He crashed out at Phoenix and struggled at Martinsville, but those performances aren't enough to push me away from Truex.

Lastly, with Kevin Harvick's win at Michigan, Truex now must win a race to qualify for the NASCAR playoffs. He can't keep points racing and expect his season to continue, so I expect his team to ramp up their aggression.

2. Winner B: Ryan Blaney | +1200 (.25u) at FanDuel

If someone else wins before the playoffs, Ryan Blaney will find himself on the outside looking in. I expect that to weigh heavily on the No. 12 team heading into Sunday's event. But Blaney led the most laps here in the spring, so it could be the perfect time for him to secure a playoff spot.

Blaney's performance at comparator tracks makes him an intriguing play. He led the most laps at Phoenix Raceway in March, and he led five laps before finishing fourth at Martinsville in April. But the summer hasn't been good for him: Blaney led a combined 20 laps at Dover, Gateway, and New Hampshire. He finished 26th, fourth, and 18th in those events, respectively.

We're getting Blaney's standard odds despite his dominant showing here in the spring. I believe that's a mistake, especially because we know Team Penske has historically focused on Phoenix and its comparator tracks in hopes of championship success. This weekend marks their last chance to try something out at a comparator, so I expect them to test out whatever they have planned for Phoenix.

Blaney's talent, Team Penske's historical focus, and the No. 12 team's desperate situation in the playoff race combine to make this one of the best picks for the Federated Auto Parts 400.

3. Matchup: Byron (+100 at DraftKings) vs. Harvick

As much as I like this play, it wasn't my favorite matchup line on the board. Chase Elliott opened at +105 against Christopher Bell, but sharp money has already bid that line down to -105. That said, this line is a nice consolation prize for those that missed out.

Byron looked great in the last Richmond race. He led 122 laps on his way to a third-place finish. Sure, Kevin Harvick snuck by him for a second-place result, but Harvick needed a late-race strategy call to find an advantage. Byron then went on to lead the most laps at Martinsville the next week.

Unfortunately, Byron's season has been a struggle ever since, especially at comparator tracks. He was leading at Gateway until Joey Logano moved him out of the way. He underperformed at New Hampshire a few weeks later and hasn't recorded a top-10 result since Sonoma.

But Hendrick Motorsportsâ€”and Byronâ€”have been better than their results indicate. Byron's average running position (13.6) outranks Harvick's (14.4). My NASCAR betting model believes that whatever skill advantage Harvick has over his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates is outweighed by Byron's superior Hendrick Motorsports equipment. And with this line at +100, we're not eating any juice by agreeing with it.

4. Top 10: Brad Keselowski | +350 (.5u) at DraftKings

Yikes, the books whiffed on this one. Keselowski scored a seventh-place finish back at New Hampshire after tangling with Austin Dillon. He finished 13th in the spring Richmond race after scoring top 10s in both stages. Yet his implied odds for a top 10 sit at a measly 22.2%.

Of course, Phoenix, Martinsville, and Gateway didn't go his way. That said, the RFK Racing camp has been improving lately. For example, we've seen Chris Buescher score multiple top 10s at road courses this summer. Keselowski's impressive comeback at New Hampshire also jumps out, as does the speed (although not the end result) he showed on the Indy road course. I'll buy the momentum because the books are ignoring it.

Keselowski boasts an impressive Richmond resume, too. Since 2014, Keselowski owns two wins, six top fives, and ten top 10s in 16 starts. Although he is no longer driving equipment in the same tier as Team Penske's, that doesn't excuse a number this long. A bad qualifying performance could create even more value, but I recommend buying this line now.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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