Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Iowa State Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The Pac-12 and Big 12 Conferences will be gunning for bragging rights when Oregon and Iowa State face off in the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon made good on their unexpected appearance in the Pac-12 Championship Game by winning the conference and securing a spot in the New Year’s Six. Iowa State has the pregame betting odds in their favor as they look to rebound from a heartbreaking loss in the Big 12 title game.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Iowa State -4.5; O/U 57.5
- Current ATS Line: Iowa State -4.5
- Current Over/Under: 58
- Location: State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 2, 2021
- Start Time: 4 p.m. EST
- Television: ESPN
- Last Meeting: Oregon and Iowa State have not faced each other in football dating back to 1995.
Overview
Despite concluding their regular season with a 3-2 record, Oregon landed a surprise spot in the Pac-12 title game when Washington backed out due to virus issues. Mario Cristobal’s Ducks made good on the lucky break by taking down USC to win their second consecutive conference championship. Quarterback Tyler Shough was far from spectacular in the game, as he threw for only 91 yards, but Oregon got the job done anyway. The Ducks have been a fairly efficient offense on the season, as they’re averaging just 12.7 yards per point and nearly 5.0 yards per carry. Even without star lineman Penei Sewell, who opted out before the shortened season began, the Ducks’ offensive front can take over any game.
Matt Campbell and Iowa State came breathtakingly close to getting over the hump and winning a Big 12 Championship this season, falling by a mere six points to Oklahoma in the conference title game. Undoubtedly, the Cyclones are looking to rebound and finish on a high note in the Fiesta Bowl. Quarterback Brock Purdy will look to avoid mistakes and the Cyclones will likely feed sensational tailback Breece Hall plenty in this one. Oregon has struggled to stop the run all season, as they allow roughly 160 rushing yards per game. That could be a problem against Hall and ISU. On defense, a stingy Cyclones front faces a sturdy test in the Oregon offensive line. Whichever side wins in the trenches will have the inside track to winning the game.
Trends
- Oregon 2020 Betting Trends: 3-3 ATS; 3-2-1 to the Over.
- Iowa State 2020 Betting Trends: 6-5 ATS; 4-6-1 to the Over.
- Underdogs have won outright in each of Oregon’s last five bowl games.
- Nine of Iowa State’s last ten bowl games went Under the total.
- Big Ten teams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine Fiesta Bowl appearances.
Line Movement
*Line movement analysis based on the DonBest Las Vegas betting market ticker*
The point spread for Saturday’s Fiesta Bowl has seen some sharp action in both directions. After initially dropping a full point from the opening line of Iowa State -4.5, the market reversed course before the line could reach an even field goal margin of three. Iowa State -4 is the most prominent Las Vegas market number at the time of writing.
For the most part, the game’s total hasn’t moved much — it’s inched up only a half-point from the opening 57.5. At the time of writing, 58.5 was available on the Las Vegas market, but only at a couple of shops.
Prediction
I’ve been high on Iowa State all season, so much so that I nearly cashed a Big 12 futures ticket on them. With the Fiesta Bowl being the final game for several Iowa State seniors, there’s no doubt that the Cyclones will be fired up to end the year on a winning note. I’m not convinced that Oregon can stop the Cyclone rushing attack or move the ball consistently against a strong ISU defense.
Mario Cristobal is building something impressive in Eugene, and fluke or not, the Pac-12 title will do wonders for recruiting. I just don’t see the current Ducks having the fortitude to knock off Matt Campbell’s Cyclones, who have been building up to this season for years now. Look for Iowa State to get the job done. Also, consider betting the total Under if the line continues to rise before kickoff.
Pick: Iowa State -4.5 (-110 at PointsBet Sportsbook)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.