First NBA Total in the Bubble Goes Crazy
It didn’t take long for gamblers to unload on a suspected bad number hung by the sportsbooks for the restart of the NBA season.
First Game in the Bubble
The Utah Jazz and the New Orleans Pelicans played the first game inside the bubble in Orlando Thursday night. The NBA had been shut down in mid-March due to COVID-19 and it was the first time the public had a chance to bet on a regular-season NBA game in months.
The Pelicans entered the contest averaging over 116 points per game, 4th best, before the stoppage of play. However, on the other side, the Jazz entered the game averaging only 111 points per game, playing at one of the slowest paces of any team in the league.
When the books posted an opening total on the game of 216, casual observers didn’t think much of it. It seemed like a fair number. After being off for several months, no one really knew what the games would look like upon return. After all, the games are being played in a foreign setting with rims that the players have no experience playing on and no fans will be present for any game.
On Sunday, the total had crept up to 218 at most books in Las Vegas but that’s when the professionals started to fire their bets. Over the next four days, the money started to pour in on the over. The books started to adjust the numbers but the money kept coming in.
Some well-respected professional gamblers also started to do media appearances recommending a play on the over and that’s when the public really got involved. The books had no choice but to dramatically move the number in response to the liability they were facing on over wagers.
On the close of business on Wednesday night, nearly every sportsbook in Vegas had the total at or above 221. Although a rise of five points in a total from the opening number seemed like a lot, that was nothing compared to what was about to happen on Thursday morning.
By the time the Jazz and Pelicans game tipped off last night, the total closed as high as 229. It’s not abnormal for a line to move a few points leading up to a game but a total number moving up 13 points in four days, including eight points on the day of the game? That’s a different story.
The drastic line movement was something that shocked veteran bookmakers in Las Vegas.
“It’s absurd. I’ve never seen that before in my life,†said Dave Sharapan of CG Sports Books on “Pushing The Odds†on Thursday morning. “It’s a testament to this whole situation. It’s going to be a lot of guessing on both sides of the counter.â€
In the end, the game never came close to going over even the opening number of 216.
Sportsbooks aren’t in the business of losing money, as we all know, and last night was a prime example of the dangers of betting with the steam. The final score was a 106-104 victory for the underdog Jazz. The game came in 19 points below the closing number.
In states like New Mexico, another veteran bookmaker wasn’t surprised that the under 229 hit.
“It was a significant move but most of the other (WNBA) games have stayed fairly close to the openers,†said Robert Walker of US Bookmaking to BettingPros.com. “WNBA has seen fairly high scoring games so maybe no fans translates to less defense. Some of their games reminded me of an All-Star. I thought both teams figured to run tonight.â€
At halftime, both teams combined for 108 points and those who backed the over must have felt like the game was heading in the right direction. However, Zion Williamson did not play down the stretch and did not play in the most important moments of the game. New Orleans faded in the final minutes and allowed Utah to come back late.
Overtime would have helped the total rise but instead of going for a tie, a three-pointer to win the game at the buzzer did not go down from Brandon Ingram of the Pelicans.
The line movement and betting activity may have been unusual. But, as it often is, it was another good night for the sportsbooks.
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Matt Perrault is a featured writer at BettingPros and the host of the Daily Juice podcast. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @sportstalkmatt.