First No. 1 Seed to Lose in the NCAA Tournament (2021 March Madness)
The 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket is finally set, and although the number-one seeds weren’t much of a surprise, their roads to the Final Four are anything but a foregone conclusion.
Gonzaga, Illinois, Baylor, and Michigan are the four top seeds heading to Indiana. Only once (2008) have all four number-one seeds reached the Final Four, and only five times have three number-one seeds done so. So, we’re probably going to see a couple of these powerhouses upset within their own region, but who will be first?
Three of these teams – Illinois, Baylor, and Michigan – will be seriously tested in the second round. The Fighting Illini are slated to meet either the ACC-champion Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets or Loyola-Chicago, the ninth-ranked team in the country, according to KenPom. Michigan will do a second-round battle with either a really experienced St. Bonaventure team – the Atlantic-10 champions – or the loaded and under-seeded LSU Tigers. The toughest bracket belongs to the Baylor Bears: my pick to be the first number-one seed to lose in the 2021 Tournament.
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The Region of Death
Coming into conference tournament play, Baylor had an argument as the best team in the country. They still do. In my eyes, they’re the second-best team in the field, behind Gonzaga. So why are they my pick to lose before any other top seed? Because they’re in the “region of death,†and regardless of which team they play in the second round, it’s going to be a nightmare of a matchup.
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The number-eight seed in the South Region is North Carolina, who had a down year (18-10) by typical Tar Heel standards. However, they present a huge mismatch for Baylor. North Carolina is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, while Baylor gives up the 53rd-highest rate of offensive rebounds of any team. The Bears are alarmingly thin in the frontcourt, and North Carolina has a roster that can exploit that weakness, especially if Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua’s impact is minimized; he’s been limited by illness of late, and when he’s been on the court, he’s been impacted by foul trouble.
If the Tar Heels are upset in the first round, Baylor will be forced to match up with the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin’s 17-12 record may not jump off the screen, but the Badgers faced the fourth-toughest schedule of any team in college basketball this year, so they’ve been tested over and over throughout the season. They’re also the 10th-ranked team, according to KenPom. If this proves to be the second-round matchup in the South, it’ll be strength against strength: Wisconsin’s defense against Baylor’s offense.
The Bears have the third-best offense in the country, averaging 84.4 points per game, and are led by perhaps the best group of perimeter players in the nation. On the other hand, Wisconsin allows just 64.3 points per game, good for 37th in the country.
Conference Tournament Hangover
Baylor also has been just a touch off since a three-week string of cancellations in February. They started the year 17-0, were forced to go three straight weeks without a game, and returned to finish the year 5-2, including a disappointing semifinals exit in the Big 12 Tournament. Baylor is a great team, but they got a tough draw, and after losing in the conference tournament, I’m suspicious that their confidence has taken a bit of a hit. The Bears are my pick to be the first top-seed eliminated from this year’s NCAA Tournament.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.