First No. 1 Seed to Lose in the NCAA Tournament (2022 March Madness)
I’ve scanned the 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket from top to bottom several times, and from what I can see, UMBC is nowhere to be found. The one-seeds can breathe a sigh of relief.
On a more serious note, this is an incredibly strong yet diverse group of one-seeds in this year’s tournament and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see all four of them in the Sweet 16, and at least three of them in the Elite 8. But if only three of them make it past the Sweet 16, who will be the first to lose?
In my opinion, the weakest of the four top-seeds is the Kansas Jayhawks. Here are three reasons why they’ll be the first one-seed to lose in the NCAA Tournament.
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Defense Still Wins Championships
Contrary to popular belief, defense is still an incredibly important part of college basketball, and while Kansas’ defense isn’t necessarily lacking, it certainly isn’t their strength. The Jayhawks were second-to-last in opponents’ points per game, allowing 68.1 – just 0.9 points per game ahead of a West Virginia team that finished the year 14-17.
You’ve got to be able to get stops in March, and Kansas is on a collision course with some teams that excel at putting the ball in the bucket. If they advance to the Sweet 16, they may have to take on Iowa or South Dakota State, two of the nation’s top four scoring teams. The Jayhawks only have five players averaging more than five points per game, so they’re not built to play in a shootout. They’ll need to rely on stops on the defensive end of the floor, and I’m not sure they’re built to do so for an entire 40-minute game.
Lack of Depth
This is not to say the Jayhawks don’t have capable players all the way to the end of their bench, because they do. But very few of them have given Bill Self a reason to give them regular minutes.
Kansas only has six players averaging more than 12 minutes a night, effectively limiting them to a six, at most seven-man rotation. That may work in regular season play when they have the luxury of taking on some of the weaker teams in the Big 12, but it’s not going to work in the NCAA Tournament when they’ve got to play two games in three days on some occasions. Especially if they get deep into the tournament and are forced to run up and down the floor against some high-scoring teams like Iowa.
Sure, some teams have had surprise heroes come from nowhere off the end of the bench to provide some much-needed depth scoring – remember Spike Albrecht? But it’s not common for players who have yet to find their footing to all of a sudden get comfortable on the season’s biggest stage. Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson – these are some of the country’s finest players, but what happens if one of them gets into foul trouble? Or has an off-shooting night? Can some of the Jayhawks bench players who are only averaging 10 minutes a night step up in their absence under the bright lights of March Madness? I’m not so sure.
March Hasn’t Been Kind to the Jayhawks
Every year is a new year, especially in college basketball as the rosters experience almost a full overhaul in this day and age. But Kansas is still led by the same head coach in Bill Self, and their roster has nine upperclassmen of the junior and senior variety – so they’ve been around to experience the recent failures the program has seen come March. It could be seen as motivation, sure, but around a storied program like Kansas, it’s only increased the pressure.
The Jayhawks haven’t made the Sweet 16 in either of the last two tournaments, which in Jayhawk land qualifies as a slump. They also haven’t won a National Title since 2007-08, and these last 14 years in Lawrence have felt like an eternity. Aside from the pressure, the lack of experience of going deep into March is going to hurt Kansas.
They haven’t tasted the big stage of a Sweet 16 or an Elite 8. They haven’t battled a team like Kentucky or North Carolina who are sure to pack the arena with just the same amount of traveling fans as the Jayhawks. These upperclassmen, especially the ones who’ve been here since 2018, have battled Eastern Washington, USC, Northeastern, and Auburn in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
In such a packed field of 68, upsets are a given. Nearly all of this year’s one-seeds are built to cut down the nets in New Orleans, but the program with the most holes and doubts surrounding its roster is the Kansas Jayhawks. Don’t be surprised to see this team handed an early exit for the third tournament in a row.
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