First No. 2 Seed to Lose in the NCAA Tournament (2021 March Madness)
Just eight times in tournament history has a 15-seed taken down a two-seed in the NCAA Tournament opening round. Four of the eight have come in the last decade, and two of the eight came in 2012 when Lehigh defeated Duke and Norfolk State took down Missouri.
Despite some recent success for 15-seeds, I don’t see any of them pulling an upset on this year’s crop of two-seeds. Ohio State, Alabama, Houston, and Iowa are all strong teams and four teams with legitimate Final Four aspirations. They all have weaknesses as well, some more glaring than others – especially Ohio State.
The Buckeyes just marched all the way to the Big Ten Championship game and spent the entire 2020-21 season proving they can run their offense on any team in college basketball. They scored 90-plus points four times this season and scored 85-or-more nine times, and on top of that, they ran the 11th-most efficient offense in college basketball. All while playing the third-toughest schedule in the nation.
That being said, Ohio State has three glaring weaknesses, one of which came to the forefront in the Big Ten title game just minutes before Selection Sunday, which’ll keep them from making a deep run in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
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Lack of Defense
On paper, Ohio State is one of those classic two seeds who many will say “can make a run,†especially “if they get hot on offense.†While that’s certainly true, what if they don’t get hot? What if they have an off-shooting night which, given the unfamiliarity with the court(s) they’ll be playing on, is entirely possible.
Their defense is horrible. Worrisome at times, in fact. They don’t have a real, true defensive identity, and their defensive efficiency metrics are a cause for concern. They rank 225th in the country in defensive efficiency and 168th in points per game allowed on defense. If they start a game slowly or hit a cold spell to open up a second half, can their defense bail them out until the shots start falling? I’m not convinced.
Inability to Force Turnovers
This is a byproduct of the poor defensive metrics from my earlier point about the Buckeyes’ struggles on that end of the floor. 347 Division-I college basketball teams played a game this season. Ohio State ranked 339th in turnovers forced on defense. They forced just seven turnovers per game in the Big Ten Tournament leading up to the title game, and despite beating Michigan in the semifinals, forced the Wolverines to cough the ball up just twice all game.
To make a run at a Final Four, you’ve got to create opportunities for yourself and force mistakes from your opponent. I’m not sure Ohio State can do that: consistently or even when they need a bit of a spark.
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Missing the Clutch Gene
This may be a bit cliché, but if you want to cut down the nets in Indianapolis, you’ve got to be able to handle pressure, big situations, and the spotlight. Ohio State won some huge games this season. They were even seemingly a shoo-in to grab a number-one seed just a few weeks ago. But, four straight losses to end the regular season put those hopes to bed.
And then, in the conference championship game against Illinois, the Buckeyes continually shot themselves in the foot in overtime. Mental mistakes led to turnovers, turnovers led to possessions for Illinois, and Illinois cashed in from the free-throw line. I was scared off of Ohio State, given how badly they crumbled in a huge spot, and the moment isn’t going to get any smaller moving forward. My choice for the first number-two seed to be sent packing in 2021: Ohio State.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.