First No. 2 Seed to Lose in the NCAA Tournament (2022 March Madness)
Last year, I successfully predicted Ohio State to be the first two-seed to fall in the NCAA Tournament, as they became the ninth two-seed team in history to fall to a 15-seed in the opening round with a 75-72 loss to eventual Sweet 16 darling Oral Roberts.
That’s right, by the way – two-seeds are 135-9 all-time against 15-seeds, so although Oral Roberts made it seem easy last year, this year’s crop of mid-majors will have a tall task ahead of them. But just because Duke, Villanova, Auburn, and Kentucky all have Final Four aspirations this year doesn’t mean one of them won’t get shown the door earlier than expected.
Each of these teams has its strengths and weaknesses, but the recent play and added pressure that Duke is facing in 2022 have me ready to fade them each and every round until they’re eventually ousted from the dance.
Here are three key reasons why Duke will be the first two-seed to lose in the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
Recent Struggles
The same can be said about really any major sports tournament or playoffs – it’s all about getting hot at the right time. And Duke is anything but hot right now.
The Blue Devils have surprisingly split their last four games, and the two losses came in the most important dates on the schedule. Duke fell at home to arch-rival North Carolina in Coach K’s last game at Cameron Indoor, and then no-showed the ACC Tournament final against seven-seed Virginia Tech – a team who wouldn’t have made the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tournament.
Those games weren’t particularly close either, as the Blue Devils were hammered by 13 points in both contests. The recent struggles won’t completely show themselves on the scoreboard though, because let’s be honest – this is a Duke team that won 28 games and took home the ACC regular-season crown. But the Blue Devils have played incredibly sloppy basketball over the past month or so, and have either lost or tied the turnover battle in nine of their last 12 games. In seven of those nine, Duke racked up double-digit turnovers. With how meaningful momentum is in March, losing the turnover battle against some of the teams in Duke’s path could very well mean losing the game.
Inability to Cope with Added Pressure
Again, Duke is 28-6, so it’s understood that they’re one of the best teams in college basketball and a team that is constantly thrust into the national spotlight. But this year’s edition of the Blue Devils has been handed added pressure that no prior squad has had to deal with – Coach K’s farewell tour.
The target on Duke’s back is perhaps the most prominent in the sport, but it grew even larger in signature moments for their legendary head coach. And this team hasn’t risen to the occasion yet. In Krzyzewski’s final home game as coach of the Blue Devils, they allowed 94 points to their most hated rival in front of the most expensive crowd in college basketball history, losing the game by 13. And then in Coach K’s final ACC Tournament, his Blue Devils wilted under the pressure once again and got run over by a middle-of-the-pack Virginia Tech team that would have been satisfied with an NIT berth had they not won the conference tournament.
The calendar has now flipped to March; the pressure is always intensified no matter who your coach is, but when your coach is Mike Krzyzewski and it’s once again another notch on the farewell belt, the pressure is due to reach never-before-seen levels. Duke hasn’t proven they can handle the heat yet, so I’m not expecting them to all of a sudden figure it out.
Collision Course with Texas Tech
Duke can outscore most, if not all teams in the country. Their depth can go toe-to-toe with any team as well. But if there’s one type of team the Blue Devils struggle with, it’s a team that plays a physical, hard-nosed brand of basketball. Enter the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Sure, Texas Tech would need to get past Montana State and the winner of Alabama vs. Notre Dame or Rutgers before they meet Duke. But the Red Raiders are a team that’s built for March and built to frustrate the heck out of these offensive-minded teams. Texas Tech allows just 60.3 points per game, good for ninth in the country and third among Power Five teams. They’re also very experienced and veteran-led; the Red Raiders boast nine upper-classmen and five transfers, so the peaks and valleys of March won’t rattle them.
The team that plays most similarly to Texas Tech is Virginia, and Duke has historically had all types of trouble with the Cavaliers – including this season. Back in early February, Virginia took Duke down 69-68 at Cameron Indoor, and just a few weeks later, the Blue Devils just squeaked by Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers by four.
Also, keep in mind that to even get to a Sweet 16 date with Texas Tech, the Blue Devils are going to have to deal with either Michigan State or the Davidson. Stephen Curry’s alma mater is a formidable 10-seed who can keep up with Duke offensively and really test their stamina. Tired legs won’t bode well for the Blue Devils against potentially Texas Tech. And if they get Michigan State – well, it’s Tom Izzo in March. And Izzo’s Spartans also happen to pride themselves on the defensive end of the floor.
No road is easy in March, but the two-seed that’ll face the toughest challenges is Duke. And they’ll also be the first of the bunch to fall.
Use our Bracket Optimizer to create the perfect bracket! >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Choose a Sportsbook — or head to more advanced strategy — like Which Sports Are Most Profitable to Bet? — to learn more.