Florida vs. Norfolk State: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Florida vs. Norfolk State.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Florida vs. Norfolk State

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Florida vs. Norfolk State

Florida 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Florida Gators have emerged as one of college basketball’s biggest surprises and are now regarded as one of the title favorites. Ranked No. 21 in the AP preseason poll, Coach Todd Golden’s squad has shattered expectations to become an SEC powerhouse poised for a deep tournament run.

Florida’s success stems from its elite shooting efficiency and pure shot volume. The Gators boast a top-five offense via KenPom’s efficiency metrics and a top-10 defense, making them one of the most complete teams in the country.

Walter Clayton Jr.’s senior year provided the perfect foundation, giving Florida one of college basketball’s most skilled scorers at point guard. If Johni Broome didn’t exist, Clayton would have been the front-runner for SEC Player of the Year, but he’ll just have to settle for first-team honors. Clayton was part of a devastating perimeter trio along with Alijah Martin and Will Richard, creating what might be the nation’s most dangerous backcourt. Meanwhile, Alex Condon has emerged as a defensive force inside, helping Florida rank in the top five in defensive effective field goal percentage, top 10 from the perimeter, and top five in near-proximity. I haven’t even gotten to Thomas Haugh, whose impressive sophomore leap has positioned him as a top-10 DI player per EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating.

No matter where an opponent shoots against Florida, it will be a contested look. Golden’s system emphasizes attacking the paint, pushing transition, and optimizing shot selection — a formula that’s translated to relentless efficiency. And that’s what stands out. With their ability to take care of the ball and get ample second-chance looks, the Gators’ floor might be the highest in the country from the pure number of shot attempts they’ll get each game. Even when Georgia shot 55% from deep against Florida, the Gators still led on the road with a minute left — and that was one of their worst games of the year.

Forcing Florida to beat you from the perimeter can be a path to an upset. All four of the Gators’ losses came with a 46%-plus three-point attempt rate. Richard can get hot, but none of Florida’s core players are shooting abore 37% from deep. That, combined with limiting Florida on the offensive glass, is the way you take down this juggernaut. But with their elite interior shooting efficiency, tenacious defense, and blend of veteran leadership and emerging talent, Florida has positioned itself as a legitimate contender poised for a deep March Madness run.

Norfolk State 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The MEAC rep enters the tournament led by 12th-year head coach Robert Jones, who has led Norfolk State to a tournament in three of his last five seasons. Norfolk State’s offensive identity centers around their mid-range proficiency which compensates somewhat for their poor three-point shooting, ranking outside the top-300 with few points coming from deep.

Defensively, they struggle defending near the rim but are decent at forcing teams outside. What makes the Spartans dangerous is their disruptive defensive pressure that ranked 9th nationally in forced turnover rate, ranking in the top-100 with versatile defenders Jaylani Darden and Terrance Jones.

But it's hard to trust a team that faced the 324th easiest SOS this year in a weak conference. They barely managed to pull through in their championship match against South Carolina State despite a 10-point lead with two minutes left.

Though statistical metrics suggest an early exit, Norfolk State’s tournament experience and defensive disruption is their only hope for something amazing happening.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Florida vs. Norfolk State

The Florida Gators added three consecutive wins by nine or more points in the SEC Tournament to win the SEC Championship. Yes, Florida dominated a conference tournament with 14 teams in the Field of 68. That's how locked in the Gators are right now.

Florida has won 12 of their last 13 games and now have the No. 1 rated offense in college basketball per KenPom. The Gators are a fast-paced offense that has absolutely feasted on the offensive glass, adding 38.1% of offensive rebounds. This is significant because Norfolk State has allowed nearly 34% of offensive rebounds per game this season.

In addition, Norfolk State has allowed teams to hit 33.9% from three, and they've fouled at an above-average rate. On the other hand, Norfolk State rarely takes three-point shots. They've also hit only 31.2% from deep this season.

What happens when Norfolk State is trailing by double digits? Norfolk State will have to resort to threes to return to the game. But that won't work against the Gators. I'll take the Gators at -27.5.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Florida vs. Norfolk State

Bet: Florida -27.5 (-115)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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