Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Odds & Game Pick (2019 College Football)

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Since opening as high as Auburn +7 earlier in the week, a flood of money has come in on the Tigers pushing this line down closer to a field goal when the Georgia Bulldogs head to Auburn on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers will be looking for their first set of back-to-back wins since late September, having fallen to both Florida and LSU on the road over the last four weeks. For the Bulldogs, a shot at the College Football Playoff is on life support, with four SEC teams already in the top five. A win in this one would give them some breathing room in the SEC East as November winds down. With so much on the line for both programs, let’s take a deeper look at what is the Deep South’s oldest rivalry.

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Saturday, November 16th, 2019 – 3:30 pm EST
Auburn +3, O/U 41 (via PointsBet)

Having faced one of the toughest schedules in the 2019 FBS landscape, the Tigers only two losses have come against aforementioned Florida and LSU, both on the road, and who were both in the top 10 at the time of playing. The Tigers still have marquee wins over Texas A&M in Week 4 and Oregon on a neutral site in their first game of the season. Their last time out, now two weeks ago in Week 10, the Tigers played host to the Mississippi Rebels, a 20-14 win in which they failed to cover as 17-point favorites. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix continued his up and down first season in Auburn, throwing for 340 yards and no interceptions, a career-high in yards. For Nix, his biggest enemy all season long has been consistency against the big boys. After combining for 511 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions against Arkansas and Mississippi State, he turned in a 302/2/4 stat line against LSU and Florida. Second in the SEC to only Georgia and Florida, this Auburn defense has risen to the occasion this season allowing only 17.4 points per game all while playing the No. 2 strength of schedule in the country.

By standards that could only be upheld in a conference like the modern-day SEC, time could be running out for fourth-year head coach Kirby Smart in Georgia should they miss this season’s College Football playoff. Given their defense’s recent play, however, I see no reason for that to be a concern come the end of the month. Over their last three games, Georgia has allowed just 17 points and shut out two teams over that span in Missouri and Kentucky. This stretch came after a bizarre 17-20 overtime loss in which junior quarterback Jake Fromm had his worst performance of the season by far, throwing for three interceptions on the way to Georgia’s only defeat. While Fromm has just been adequate this season by his standards, throwing for 13 touchdowns and 1,858 yards, this Bulldogs’ defense has more than picked up the slack. Through nine games, which included contests against Notre Dame and Florida, the Bulldogs are allowing just 10.1 points (second in the FBS) and 260.7 yards (fifth) per game.

Bottom Line?

For Auburn’s freshman quarterback Nix, this will be from top to bottom the most elite defense he has yet seen in his nine collegiate starts. If the Bulldogs can get to him early, I expect an already conservative game plan from the Tigers to become even more so as the afternoon progresses. On the other sideline, Kirby and his staff know what’s at stake here, and also know they can rely heavily on their defense to get stops and force Nix into bad decisions. Over their last two games, against defenses with far less sting than this Bulldogs’ unit, Auburn has scored no more than 20 points in each contest. I lean Georgia to pull off the win, but be content in a 20-13 type of outcome.

Pick: Under 41  

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