Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (5-0, 3-0 SEC) travel to the No. 18 Auburn Tigers (4-1, 1-0) in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry game at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 6.
Georgia has shut out its last two opponents: Arkansas Razorbacks 37-0 on Oct. 2 and at the Vanderbilt Commodores 62-0 on Sept. 25. The Bulldogs have covered in four of their five wins and are 3-2 Over/Under (O/U). Auburn rebounded from a loss to the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 18 with two straight wins over Georgia Southern (34-24 in Week 4) and at the LSU Tigers (24-19 in Week 5). The Tigers are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gone over the total in three of their five games.
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Details
- Opening Line: Georgia -14
- Current Line: Georgia -15.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium
- Start Time: Saturday, October 9, 2021, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Last Meeting: Georgia beat Auburn 27-6 on October 3, 2020, as 7.5-point home favorites. The Under cashed on the 44.5-point total.
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Trends
Georgia is 5-1 straight-up (SU) and ATS vs. Auburn since head coach Kirby Smart was hired in 2016. The Bulldogs have the third-lowest cover rate in the SEC as a home favorite (13-17 ATS) over that span. Also, Georgia is 19-11 ATS vs. ranked opponents and 28-20 ATS vs. SEC teams since 2016.
Auburn junior QB Bo Nix is a three-year starter starting in 2019. Since then, the Tigers are 11-8 ATS in conference games, 3-3 ATS as a road underdog, and 5-8 ATS vs. ranked competition. In his two starts against Georgia, Nix has a 56.7% completion rate with 422 passing yards, a 97.5 passer efficiency rating, and a 1 TD to 1 INT ratio.
Action report
There’s a sharp and public play on Georgia as roughly 90% of both the cash and bets placed are on the Bulldogs (according to Pregame.com). This one-sided action has steamed Georgia above the key number of 14 to the current price.
On the other hand, for the total, we have a Pros vs. Joe’s situation in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, slightly more cash is on the Under while nearly 65% of the bets placed are on the Over (at the time of publishing). The split action has held the total around the 46.5-point consensus opener.
Handicap
Both of these defenses are top-tier units, but Georgia’s defense is nuts. The Bulldogs are first DFEI, defensive points per drive, and defensive points per play (according to Football Outsiders). Furthermore, each defense is top-10 in non-garbage time explosiveness and defensive predicted points added (PPA). That said, what gives Georgia an insurmountable edge is its advantage in high-leverage situations (aka third-down and red-zone conversion rates).
Each team is at or above a 50.0% third-down conversion rate and 90.0% red zone scoring rate. But, Auburn’s defense has allowed its opponent to score on every red zone trip and is ranked just 56th in third-down defense. While Georgia is third in the country in red-zone scoring allowed (50.0%) and fourth in third-down defense (27.5%).
The main reason why the Bulldogs defense has so much success on third down is that they lead the nation in defensive passing down rate. Also, Georgia has the fifth-best non-garbage time defensive passing down success rate out of Power 5 schools. Auburn has just a 35.5% success rate on passing downs in non-garbage time. The Bulldogs are allowing the fifth-best yards per rush on defense and force teams to convert on third and long. Georgia being able to neutralize Auburn’s ground game is going to be the difference in this game.
However, I can only lean to Georgia covering since we’d be getting the worst of the number in Auburn’s defense is stout as well. These Georgia-Auburn games are usually played in the trenches. The Under has cashed four straight Georgia-Auburn contests and seven of the past eight. Not only that but the presumed sharp money is backing the Under whereas the squares are betting the Over. Typically, in sports betting it’s profitable to follow the money. Especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Pick: LIKE Under 47.5 (-110 on FanDuel) and LEAN Georgia -15.5 for a one-third unit (-110 on BetMGM)
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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.