Georgia vs. TCU: 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
Check out my top player prop bets for the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Game between Georgia and TCU.
2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Betting Guide >>
- 2022 regular season: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%)
- 2022 bowls: 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%)
- 2022 combined: 109-83-4 ATS (56.7%)
- 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Georgia vs. TCU: 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
TCU QB Max Duggan – over 233.5 passing yards
Georgia’s defense is fabulous – it ranks No. 2 SP+. But you can’t mention that without mentioning two other things: The Bulldogs only played the No. 39 strength of schedule, and Georgia struggled with spread offenses.
The past two games, Georgia allowed 348 passing yards (and four TD) to Ohio State QB CJ Stroud and 502 passing yards (and three TD) to LSU’s quarterbacks. TCU’s offense is top-5 explosive in the nation, while Georgia’s defense is middle-of-the-pack in preventing explosive plays.
TCU QB Max Duggan – over 29.5 rushing yards
Georgia doesn’t like to blitz, and its already meager pass-rush has become more feeble ever since its best pass-rusher, EDGE Nolan Smith, was lost for the season.
This allows opposing quarterbacks to sit back in the pocket and survey options. It also leads to less sacks, which is the killer of quarterback rushing props in college – in the NFL, sacks are not deducted from quarterback rushing stats, in college, they are.
Over the past two games, against Michigan and Kansas State, Duggan rushed for 167 yards and three TD. In the 10 games where Duggan was sacked less than four times this season, he averaged 49.4 rushing yards per game. Georgia averaged 2.14 sacks per game this season. And by the way: TCU has a superb, veteran-laden offensive line that has a higher pass-blocking grade than Georgia’s.
In addition, star TCU RB Kendre Miller is questionable to play with a sprained MCL. Whether Miller doesn’t, or whether Miller does and isn’t 100-percent, TCU needs Duggan to pick up a bit more of the running slack. I see more designed runs for him coming. HC Sonny Dykes seemed to hint at this in his pregame comments.
Georgia RB Kenny McIntosh – under 66.5 rushing yards
I respect Georgia’s ground game. And I do think it matches up fine in this game overall. But it isn’t a given that the Bulldogs will stampede the Frogs on the ground.
TCU DC Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 scheme shut down Texas’ vaunted run game, and it frustrated Michigan’s Joe Moore-award winning offensive line in a way outside observers didn’t think possible heading in. Not only that, but Missouri’s 3-3-5 gave Georgia fits in the regular season. Otherworldly Georgia blocking TE Darnell Washington may not play, which would tick down Georgia’s run blocking either way.
The Bulldogs use a three-man rotation – McIntosh, Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton. Georgia shows extreme fealty to this platoon. All three average over 45 yards per game.
McIntosh and Edwards enter this game with extremely similar carry and rushing yardage numbers. But McIntosh is decidedly the team’s preference on passing downs out of the backfield – by far and away he leads the team’s runners in receptions. In money games, your game scripts crystalize.
Last time out, against Ohio State, McIntosh had only five carries (Edwards had eight) – but McIntosh crucially had five catches for 56 yards and a TD. Georgia can’t eschew the pass on Monday night, but they’ll want to avoid TCU’s corners as much as possible. Hence, potentially increased usage for McIntosh in that area – along with the man below – while Edwards could lead in carries again.
Georgia TE Brock Bowers – over 62.5 receiving yards
At first blush, this number doesn’t seem like a good price. Bowers has reached 70 receiving yards in only three of 14 games this season.
But Georgia’s offensive weakness is its receiving corps, and it is likely to shy away from TCU’s awesome corners, which includes Jim Thorpe Award winner CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and his outstanding running mate Josh Newton.
The one area the Bulldogs have a decided matchup advantage is Bowers. The Horned Frogs don’t have a singular defender capable of matching up against him (in truth, nobody does).
In the semifinals, Michigan tight ends Colston Loveland and Luke Schoonmaker combined for five receptions for 68 yards against the Frogs. But TCU’s struggles with opposing tight ends stretches to the start of the season. The Frogs’ linebackers are large, lumbering run-stuffers.
And while the Frogs play three safeties, none match up cleanly with strong receiving tight ends. Per the Action Network, TCU held only one regular season opponent’s tight ends beneath their season average yardage against other opponents.
Bowers is a clearly superior receiver to each of them. I expect Bowers to be a key part of Georgia’s game script early. And if Georgia finds itself down late, it’s going to be forcing targets his way.
Also of note: Georgia TE Darnell Washington may or may not play. Washington finished fifth on the team in catches. If he doesn’t go, even more targets could be headed Bowers’ way. TE3 Oscar Delp has been sub-replacement level in his looks this season.
Georgia WR Ladd McConkey – under 40.5 receiving yards
McConkey suffered a minor right MCL sprain in the SEC title game but was able to play in the semifinals against Ohio State. He had only two catches for -1 yards despite the fact that Georgia had to throw like mad to complete a furious comeback. QB Stetson Bennett had 398 passing yards.
As mentioned above, TCU has one of the best cornerback groups in America. The Frogs go four-deep in legitimate cover corners. McConkey will not have an easy assignment at any point on Monday night.
It’s also worth noting that Georgia recently got WR Adonai Mitchell back from injury. Mitchell, who posted a 3-43-1 line against Ohio State, has already started biting into McConkey’s targets.
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