Giants vs. Buccaneers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 12)

Introducing the Week 12 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Giants vs. Buccaneers.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 Betting Primer>>

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

Sides:

• New York is 13-8 ATS on the road.
• The Giants are 9-9 ATS over their last 18 games.
• The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 road games.
• The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
• The Giants are 8-13 ATS as road underdogs.
• They are 1-4 ATS at home this season.
• The Giants have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of the Giants' last seven games.
• Their opponents have scored first in each of the Giants' last five road games.
• The Giants are 12-7-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (9-5-1).
• New York is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 divisional matchups.
• The Giants have lost each of their last five home games.
• The Buccaneers have won six of their last 12 games as underdogs.
• 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
• The Buccaneers have won six of their last eight games following a loss.
• Tampa Bay is 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 10 games.
• The underdogs have won seven of the last 17 Buccaneers’ games.
• The Buccaneers are 11-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
• Tampa Bay is 3-2 ATS against the NFC South, with the only losses against the Falcons.

Totals:

• The Giants are 8-11 toward the over in the last 19 games
• New York has scored 20-plus points in eight of their last 16 games.
• Eight of the Giants' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Ten of the Giants’ last 13 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of the Buccaneers’ last seven games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Tampa Bay is 7-3 O/U this season (4-2 at home, averaging nearly 52 points per game).
• On defense, they have allowed the 6th most points per game (26.6).
• Tampa Bay has averaged fewer than 42 points total at home since 2023 (5-9 record toward the over).

Overall:

It's time for Tommy DeVito. The Giants benched Daniel Jones over the bye week and will roll with DeVito for the time being. DeVito took on the role as the "plucky backup" QB last season for Big Blue, going 3-3 as a starter and 4-2 against the spread.

But DeVito surpassed 200 passing yards once, and took a sack on an egregious 37.4% of his dropbacks. Also, DeVito's impact on those wins was negligible at best. New York generated 16 turnovers over his six starts, churning out a +11-turnover margin. Every game they lost, the defense had two or fewer turnovers.

For Tampa Bay to win and cover this game it comes down to being smart with the football, and not letting them beat themselves.

Baker Mayfield continues to be a great bet on the road, as Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS on the road with the only loss coming in overtime against the Falcons.

The Giants only hope offensively will be with their rushing attack, spearheaded by rookie Tyrone Tracy. Last year with DeVito under center, the Giants offense posted a -5% pass rate over expectation.

Todd Bowles knows this and will throw whatever he can defensively to slow down the Giants’ rushing attack with loaded boxes. Note that Tampa Bay held the 49ers rushing attack to 75 rushing yards - with Christian McCaffrey seeing just 39 rushing yards.

I think the Buccaneers will have much better success running on the Giants.

The Giants have allowed the most yards before contact per attempt to running backs (2.35), allowing the fourth most rushing yards per game.

Between Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and a healthy Mike Evans back in the fold, I think Tampa's offense has more than enough to work with to win this game by a touchdown. Along with being a great bet on the road, Mayfield has typically responded well ATS after losses.

Both teams have strong red-zone defenses, so I'm very much on the under here. To the Giants' credit, they are a team that can generate a solid pass rush and create sacks. That's enough to kill drives and keep this game under 41.5 points.

Note that DeVito’s games last season were either very high-scoring (over 46 points in four games) or way under (fewer than 31 points).

Giants games at home are consistently going under the total, so I see no reason to get away from the trend.

Props:

The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Malik Nabers has surpassed 60.5 receiving yards once in his last four game since returning from his concussion. With a new QB under center, it remains to be seen how much yardage Nabers can accumulate.

Don't forget about Jalen McMillan.

He was not able to benefit from the Buccaneers WR injuries over the past month because he was sidelined with a hamstring injury.

But before his injury, he was highly involved in the offense.

Back in Week 9, McMillan led the Bucs WRs with eight targets, catching four for 35 yards. McMillan ran a route on 86% of dropbacks which also led the team. McMillan received one red zone target and did not score. McMillan commanded a 15.22% target share and contributed 95 air yards, making up 31.15% of the team's air yards. McMillan had all the usage you could ask for in his first game sans Godwin and Mike Evans. Mayfield missed him on a deep pattern that could have been a touchdown. McMillan has nearly 200 air yards in his last two games.

Practicing in full, I'd expect him to reclaim a starting WR role in the Buccaneers offense.

My Picks:

• Buccaneers -5.5
• Under 41.5
• Malik Nabers UNDER 60.5 receiving yards
• Jalen McMillan OVER 21.5 receiving yards