Giants vs. Eagles NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)
Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Giants vs. Eagles.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week X Betting Primer>>
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Sides:
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games.
- The Eagles are 10-12 O/U since the start of 2023, but they are 3-9 toward the over on the road.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Eagles have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
- The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- But at home in their last 21 games - 13-8 ATS as home favorites.
- The Eagles have lost five of their last six road games.
- The Giants are 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games.
- The Giants have lost eight of their last 12 road games.
- The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1). They are 1-2 ATS at home this season.
Totals:
- The Eagles are 11-12 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 4-9 toward the over on the road.
- Six of the Eagles' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-3 toward the OVER at home since start of 2023
- The Giants are 6-9 toward the over in the last 15 games
- New York has scored 20-plus points in seven of their last 12 games.
- Six of the Giants’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Giants' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall
The Giants and Eagles both boast top-six red-zone defenses this season. Given the familiarity of these NFC East divisional rivals, my initial lean on this contest strongly shades toward the under. I got it early at 45.5 back on Monday, but I still like it down to 43.5 points. Points will be a premium in this spot, regardless of how many touchdowns Saquon Barkley scores in a "revenge" game against his old team, even though Barkley will be slated for a strong outing against a run defense that ranks 31st in yards per attempt and rushing yards allowed over expectation (+184). Before last week’s disappointment, Barkley had rushed for at least 84 yards in all four games for the Eagles, including 95-plus in three.
The Eagles’ road games heavily trend towards unders, as do the Giants at home. If you are looking for points, MetLife Stadium ain't it.
New York's defense showed up in the bright lights against the high-powered Bengals offense in Week 6, and they typically play better at home. This same matchup totaled just 37 points in New York last season, and I'd expect more of the same in Week 7.
Ultimately, I feel the Eagles have too much talent and a motivated Barkley to cover the three-point spread. All the on-paper matchups highly favor the Eagles on both offense and defense.
Philly's played in a bunch of weird games this season and were fighting an uphill battle to cover a massive 9.5-point spread against the Browns last week. But had it not been for a blocked FG touchdown return (10-point swing), the Eagles might be viewed differently going into this matchup.
Still prefer the under as the best play. Note that the Giants' OL took another major hit in Week 6, losing LT Andrew Thomas to a season-ending injury.
Props
DeVonta Smith had a solid day in Week 6, catching three of his four targets (16% Target share) for 64 yards and a touchdown, including a 45-yard catch. Smith's production always booms when someone else in the receiving corps misses time. Most notably, last season, he went over 57.5 receiving yards in every game that Dallas Goedert missed in 2023. He has also gone over 57.5 receiving yards in every single game this season (four games).
Wan'Dale Robinson has recorded the most targets (49) and receptions (33) on targets short of the sticks this season, resulting in the 2nd-most receiving yards (244) on such targets.
Robinson has been effective in space, recording the 2nd-most missed tackles forced (12) among wide receivers this season.
The Giants have averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 38 inside rushes with Tyrone Tracy on the field, compared to 3.5 yards per carry on 55 inside rushes with Tracy off the field this season.
Tracy has recorded a league-high 119 rushing yards on inside runs since Week 5, including 6.3 yards per carry. Matchup: Opposing offenses have run between the tackles on just 34.5% of designed runs against the Eagles’ defense this season, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.
My Picks