Giants vs. Ravens NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)
Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Giants vs. Ravens.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Sides:
- The Giants have lost each of their last seven home games.
- The Giants have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- The Giants have lost each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Giants are 10-11 ATS over their last 21 games.
- The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1).
- They are 2-5 ATS at home this season.
- In each of the Giants' last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
- The Giants have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
- The road team has covered the spread in six of the Giants’ last 10 games.
- The Giants are 13-8-1 at home ATS and as home underdogs, ATS (10-6-1).
- The New York Giants are 13-9 ATS on the road.
- The Giants have lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
- The Giants are 8-14 ATS as road underdogs.
- Their opponents have scored first in the Giants’ five of the last six road games.
- New York is 6-5 ATS in their last 11 divisional matchups.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in six of their last 11 games.
- Baltimore is 15-6 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 11-5 ATS as a road favorite in their last 16 applicable appearances.
- The Ravens have covered the spread in 11 of their last 13 games following a loss.
- Baltimore is 15-7 on the money line as home favorites but just 9-13 ATS as home favorites.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games following a division loss.
Totals:
- The Giants are 9-13 toward the over in the last 22 games
- New York has scored 20-plus points in nine of their last 19 games.
- Seven of the Giants' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of last 15).
- Ten of the Giants’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Giants' last 15 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (10 of their last 14), but they tended to be against better offenses.
- The Ravens are 10-3 toward the over this season.
- Ten of the Ravens’ last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The lowest total game they've played this season has been 34 points (previous lows of 43 and 45 points).
- The Ravens have gone OVER in 14 of the last 18 games (14 of the previous 20).
- Six of the Ravens' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Ravens’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Welcome back to MetLife Stadium, where game totals go to die. The Giants-Saints game last week did not disappoint, with the under coming in with ease.
Seven of the Giants' last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line (12 of last 15).
But this game features a major mismatch when it comes to red zone efficiency. The Ravens are first in red zone offense, Giants rank dead last. Both defenses are average in the red zone.
Hence, the 15-point spread in favor of the Ravens. Well that’s what it was when Drew Lock was expected to start. We got news later in the week that Tommy DeVito would start for the Giants. Last we saw DeVito in 2024, his team lost 7-30 to Tampa Bay. DeVito is now 3-4 as a starter and 4-3 against the spread.
I think I am going to shy away from the 43.5-point total with a heavy over team facing off against a heavy under team. Also, it needs to be recognized that the Ravens’ defense has improved since the start of the season. They have held QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game in their last three games (an average of sub-200 passing yards).
All signs point to a Ravens' domination. But off a bye week with a prime-time Steelers matchup in Week 16 on the horizon, I think we might see Baltimore let down on the road. I've seen this Ravens team play down to their competition numerous times in the last two seasons, and I think we could see something similar versus New York.
The process always says to take the double-digit underdogs at home, and it's a massive spread at 16.5 points.
Baltimore is 11-6 ATS as a road favorite, but that's countered by the Giants’ record at home ATS (13-8-1), especially when they are an underdog (10-6-1).
Trust the process. Give me the Giants +16.5 at home. Again, this is less about the Giants and more about how often I’ve seen Baltimore play down to their competition.
We are getting more points with New York than we should, given they should have beaten the Saints last week, had it not been for a myriad of special team miscues. They won't be at a disadvantage this week, given the issues that have gone on with Ravens kicker Justin Tucker this season.
Props:
The Giants’ biggest weakness on defense is against deep passes. Rashod Bateman is dealing with an injury, and Diontae Johson is suspended. Nelson Agholor is in play for a long ball.
Isaiah Likely also stepped up in the absence of Bateman back in Week 13, scoring a touchdown and contributing solid production. Likely's eight targets led the team (23% Target share), along with his 38% target rate per route run.
With Johnson suspended and Bateman hurt, Likely might be a sneaky producer that nobody is talking about.
According to Next Gen Stats, Lamar Jackson has thrown a league-high 18 downfield touchdown passes (10+ air yards) this season while throwing just one interception.
Jackson’s 57.0% completion percentage on such passes is 4th-highest in the NFL this season. Jackson has been particularly effective throwing downfield in the seams, completing 64.5% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Jackson has also generated +60.2 EPA on downfield passes to the seams this season, 20.9 more than the next-closest quarterback.
Malik Nabers has gone over 68.5 receiving yards thrice (barely) in his last six games, with his two highest games at 69, 71, and 79 receiving yards, respectively.
Eight of the last 10 TEs to play Baltimore have gone OVER their receiving yards prop.
In Week 14, Nabers paced the Giants receivers with 79 yards on five receptions (10 targets, 22% Target share, 129 air yards), while tight end Daniel Bellinger added 45 yards on five catches (seven targets).
The majority of Nabers' production came in the fourth quarter, failing to exceed 40 yards in the first three quarters.
Bellinger took on a solid role after the team put Theo Johnson on IR. The veteran tight end ran a route on 79% of the dropbacks-great matchup versus the Ravens.
My Picks