Gonzaga vs. Kansas 2024 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Round 2 (Saturday)
Well, so much for that chaos we expected in the Midwest Region.
Both Samford and McNeese State entered the 2024 NCAA Tournament as two of the most popular upset picks both in brackets and in betting circles. While Samford gave the Kansas Jayhawks a heck of a fight, Gonzaga had taken care of McNeese in roughly five minutes of game time.
The chalk prevailed. Now, we’ll get the short-handed Jayhawks taking on the puzzling Bulldogs with a spot in the Sweet Sixteen on the line.
Here’s a full breakdown and betting pick for Saturday afternoon’s clash:
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2024 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
#5 Gonzaga (-192) vs. #4 Kansas (+160), O/U: 151.5 (-112/-108)
What Does Kansas Have Left in the Tank?
Anyone who watched the Kansas-Samford game knows the Bulldogs gave the Jayhawks everything they could handle late Thursday night. Kansas got up by as much as 22 points early on, but Samford stormed back and caught fire from three in the second half.
Even without Kevin McCullar, Kansas’ offense was able to successfully score off the Samford press and 2-3 zone. The Jayhawks shot 29-of-40 from the inside and that efficiency helped them overcome 18 turnovers.
While Kansas came out victorious, there were obvious flaws. Kansas couldn’t shoot or defend the perimeter. The Jayhawks went 6-for-18 from three while allowing Samford to hit 16-of-37 triples.
Just the fact that Kansas had to fend for their lives Thursday night doesn’t bode well, either. Kansas essentially used a six-man rotation Thursday night, playing Parker Braun and Jamari McDowell for a few minutes apiece. With a quick turnaround and another game at altitude coming, fatigue could come into play for the short-handed Jayhawks.
Fortunately for Kansas, foul trouble shouldn’t be as much of an issue as it was against Samford. Gonzaga ranks 224th in free throw rate this season, while Samford ranked 89th coming into last night’s game.
Are the Zags a Sleeping Giant?
After starting the year slow, the Zags are getting some shots to fall. Over their last 10 games, Gonzaga leads the nation in effective field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are playing at a slightly more methodical pace during this hot stretch and moving the ball exceptionally well to set up quality shots.
But it’s worth wondering whether Gonzaga is due for some three-point regression. While they’re shooting 41.7% from deep over their last 10, they’ve only gone deep on about 28% of their offensive possessions, which ranks outside the top 300 nationally.
The regression from deep certainly didn’t come against McNeese, as the Zags shot 10-for-21 from deep. Against a Kansas defense that’s elite at defending the rim, the Zags will need to strike from downtown.
Prediction & Best Bet
If Kansas were at full strength, I’d most likely go with a Jayhawks team that’s far better defensively. However, with no McCullar and the potential for fatigue kicking in, Saturday’s game feels like an uphill battle.
I also like this matchup for Gonzaga, whose biggest weaknesses are defensive rebounding and three-point defense. However, Kansas ranks 291st in offensive rebounding rate, and the Jayhawks weren’t a good three-point shooting squad, even with McCullar in the lineup, ranking 210th in three-point shooting and 335th in three-point rate. Hunter Dickinson will get his, but the Jayhawks won’t be able to score as easily inside against Gonzaga, who ranks 11th in two-point defense.
While I wouldn’t play this at much higher than the current number, I do like Gonzaga to advance and cover.
The Pick: Gonzaga -4.5 (-105)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: