Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Odds & Game Pick

by Raju Byfield |
Dec 21, 2019

The Green Bay Packers will travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings in a contest that could ultimately decide the winner of the NFC North. Green Bay won the contest between these two teams back in September, but depending on Saturday's injury report, the complexion of these two rosters may look very different. The Vikings opened as four-point favorites due to recent form and playing at home, but the line could see a drastic shift if superstar running back Dalvin Cook is ruled out with a shoulder injury.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -4 on the Minnesota Vikings. The consensus over/under total opened at 46.5 points. The point spread has climbed to -5.5. The over/under total has seen some movement but has settled back in at 46.5.
Current Line: Minnesota -5.5
O/U: 46.5
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota,
Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, Monday, December 23rd
Last Meeting: Green Bay defeated Minnesota 21-16 - September 15, 2019

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Overview

The 11-3 Green Bay Packers can lock up the NFC North with a win against the Minnesota Vikings. Their path to top seed in the NFC is a much more convoluted one that includes common games, conference wins, and head to head records that is beyond the scope of our discussion of the Packers as far as it pertains to this game. Green Bay has struggled for wide receiver help outside of Davante Adams for the second-straight season, but they have been able to ride a strong defense and the breakout season of Aaron Jones to a playoff berth. The Packers may not have the goods to make it out of the NFC this season, but they do have the talent to beat a banged-up Minnesota Vikings team in Week 16. Running back Aaron Jones will likely need to have a big game for the Packers to secure a win.

The 10-4 Minnesota Vikings can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win against Green Bay on Monday night. They can also clinch a playoff spot with a Rams loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Minnesota has shown signs of being a dominant team. Detractors will point to the fact that the Vikings have not beaten one good team all season. Their marquee wins have come against two teams in the NFC East with inflated records: the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles. When healthy, the Vikings have the talent to make it out of the NFC. Unfortunately, health has been and continues to be an issue. Adam Thielen has played in just nine contests this season, finishing just seven due to a hamstring injury. Superstar running back Dalvin Cook is on the wrong side of questionable for Monday night with a shoulder injury, and his impressive backup Alexander Mattison is also in danger of missing Monday night with an injury of his own. If both backs are ruled out, the Vikings are going to have a tough time securing a straight-up victory, nevermind covering a -5.5 spread.

Trends

Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Green Bay.
The home team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests.
Under is 8-2 in the last 10 contests between these two teams.
Under is 5-0 in the last five contests between these two teams played in Minnesota.
Green Bay is 9-5 ATS on the season.
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS on the road this season.
Minnesota is 8-6 ATS on the season.
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS at home this season.
Green Bay is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records.
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in their last seven road contests.
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in their last eight Monday contests.
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with winning home records.
Green Bay is 3-7-1 in their last 11 contests as road underdogs.
Minnesota is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against the NFC.
Minnesota is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 contests against teams with winning records.
Minnesota is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 contests as a home favorite.
Minnesota is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 Monday contests.
Under is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six contests against the NFC.
Under is 7-0 in Green Bay's last seven contests against the NFC North.
Under is 4-1 in Green Bay's last five contests as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Green Bay's last five contests as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six road contest against teams with winning home records.
Over is 5-1 in Minnesota's last six contests.
Over is 4-0 in Minnesota's last four contests against teams with winning records.
Over is 5-2 in Minnesota's last seven contests as a favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Minnesota's last eight Monday contests.
Under is 10-4 in Minnesota's last 14 contests against the NFC.

Prop Bets

Aaron Jones over 49.5 rushing yards (-238)
Jones has crossed 49.5 rushing yards in seven of his 14 contests this season. He ran for 116 yards against the Vikings in Week 2, suggesting that the win probability is high enough to suffer the juice for a full unit return. The over 74.5 rushing yard line at PointsBet also presents some appeal due to the plus money, but the win probability on the over 49.5 presents much greater value. Jones has averaged just 59.3 rushing yards per game on the season, and he has crossed 74.5 in just four contests. 74.5 rushing yards at +130, when we can get something in the 58.5 range at -110 to -120 if we wait until the weekend, makes little sense. This prop has a high enough win probability to use as a hedge on your full game action if you can stomach the increased exposure. If you do not want to risk the extra yards, or to wait until the weekend, lock this one in for a one or two-unit return.

Bottom Line

While this contest had a clear lean on Minnesota to open the week, recent reports of Dalvin Cook potentially missing Monday's game has ground the majority of the action coming in on this contest to a halt. Green Bay bettors willing to risk Cook being out are happily taking the 5.5 point cushion. Minnesota bettors are in a holding pattern as they await confirmation on Cook's status. The line for this contest has jumped as high as two points since its open at -4, a number which both the sharps and public eagerly pounced on. Cook is the engine of the Vikings offense, so it will be interesting to see how far the line moves if their star running back is ruled out. With so much uncertainty regarding the health of the Vikings backfield, the Packers are the easy play at this juncture of the week. A one-unit feeler should be strongly considered. The line has already started to drop at some books, with the juice rising on Green Bay at others. Lock this one in at -6 at 888Sport before the line changes.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -6 (-114)

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 16

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+10)
New York Giants at Washington (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-7)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2)
Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (+6)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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