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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick

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The NFC Championship Game features a rematch of a regular-season blowout that saw the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Green Bay Packers 37-8. In that game, the Packers mustered just 198 yards of total offense and didn’t score their first points until 3:52 left in the third quarter, when the 49ers were already up 23-0. Since that game, the Packers have rattled off six straight wins, while the 49ers are 4-2 in that same span.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as 49ers -7; O/U 45.5. There has been very little movement
  • Current Line: 49ers -7.5
  • O/U: 45
  • Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
  • Start Time: 6:40 pm ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: November 24, 2019 – The 49ers defeated the Packers 37-8 in San Francisco

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Packers at 49ers >>

Overview

In Week 12, these two teams met on Sunday Night Football and the 49ers absolutely embarrassed the Packers in front of a national audience to the tune of a 37-8 romp. However, the Packers will get a shot at revenge this week as they once again travel to San Francisco, this time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Many believe this game could come down to coaching, which means that Matt LaFleur will have a chance to really prove his coaching chops. In their first meeting, the first-year coach’s game plan simply wasn’t good enough. The 49ers jumped out to a 23-0 first-half lead and the Packers were never able to make the game interesting after that.

All season, people have been questioning the new offense under LaFleur and wondered if it has helped Aaron Rodgers or not. He finished the season with 4,002 yards, the second-lowest total of his career in a season in which he started all 16 games. He threw 26 touchdowns and just four interceptions, a total that was double what he threw last year, though still an incredible feat through 16 games. This week, however, he will be tested against a 49ers defense that gave up a league-best 169.2 passing yards per game and held Rodgers to an abysmal 104 yards in their first meeting.

Aaron Jones will look to bounce back after his poor performance against the 49ers in Week 12, where he rushed for just 38 yards. Despite that game, Jones had the best season of his career, rushing for 1,084 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, it won’t be easy for him to get going as the 49ers’ defense only gave up 21 yards on the ground last weekend against Minnesota.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off a great performance against the Vikings and will look to continue to excel against the best teams in the NFL. The 49ers are 7-2 SU against teams at least .500 or better on the season, which includes wins over the Seahawks, Vikings, and Packers, the other three teams that were playing in the NFC Divisional Round. In his first postseason start, Jimmy Garoppolo threw for just 131 yards, and yet, the 49ers still won convincingly 27-10. A lot of that has to do with their incredible defensive play, which held the Vikings to just 147 total yards. They sacked Kirk Cousins six times, accumulating a total of 46 lost yards. They also held Dalvin Cook to just 18 yards rushing on nine carries. 

Their own running backs carried the load for the offense as they rushed for 186 yards as a team. Tevin Coleman had 105 yards and two touchdowns, while Raheem Mostert added 58 yards before leaving in the fourth quarter with a calf cramp. 

Trends

  • The Packers are 11-6 ATS this season.
  • The 49ers are 11-6 ATS this season.
  • The total has gone under in 10 of the Packers’ 17 games.
  • The total has gone over in eight of the 49ers’ 17 games this season.
  • The Packers are 5-3 ATS on the road this season.
  • The 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone under in four of the Packers’ last five games.
  • The 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last seven games versus the Packers.

Prop Bet

Aaron Rodgers over 238.5 yards
Surprisingly, Rodgers has only topped this mark seven times all season. This could be for any number of reasons, including that the Packers wanted to run the ball more with Aaron Jones or that they were ahead in a lot of games on their way to a 13-3 record. Rodgers was terrible against the 49ers the first time, but he has been great at making adjustments throughout his career. The Packers will likely be trailing for most of the game, which means Rodgers will have to throw the ball a lot in order to keep Green Bay in it. The last time he played San Francisco, he had one of the worst games of his career. He might not light up the stat sheet, but with how this game should progress, he should have no problem crossing the 238.5-yard threshold.

Bottom Line

The Packers haven’t gotten any better since they got blown out by the 49ers in Week 12, but there is a case to be made that the 49ers have. Their defense has gotten healthier and they looked like a well-rested, dominant team after their Wild Card bye week. In addition, this will likely come down to coaching since both teams do know each other from their regular-season meeting. I’ll give the advantage there to Kyle Shanahan, as he has given us no reason to think that he can’t outcoach first-year head coach Matt LaFleur.

The Packers haven’t looked great this year, and despite their 13-3 record, many are looking at them as an easy win for the 49ers. Doubting Aaron Rodgers is never smart, but unless Aaron Jones can run all over the 49ers’ front seven and open things up for Rodgers, the 49ers’ secondary should be able to lock down the Packers’ wide receivers. Despite his average performance against the Vikings, there shouldn’t be any questions about Jimmy G in his second postseason start after the young quarterback didn’t show any nerves last week. Even if Garoppolo struggles early, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman should be able to find running room against the Packers’ defense to open up the passing game.

One thing to note here is that five of the 49ers’ last six games have been decided by one score or less, so San Francisco does have a history of playing close games. However, they had an early bye week this season and were likely tired at the end of the year. They looked like a much better unit all-around last week and there won’t be any concerns about rust or fatigue this week against Green Bay. Yes, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but the 49ers are just a much better team. Give me the Niners as big favorites. 

Pick: 49ers -7.5

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.