Grizzlies vs. Bulls ATS Pick for 2/13 (Sports Betting)
Tonight’s game between the Grizzlies and Bulls is going to be slow and painful, but profitable.
Current Form
Grizzlies
Memphis has held its own (2-2) since Marc Gasol’s departure. At least for a few games, trading away Gasol, Garrett Temple, and Jamychal Green has improved the team’s depth. Led by Joakim Noah’s 19 points and five other players scoring in double figures, the Grizzlies’ motley crew of newfound depth was on full display in Saturday’s win over the Pelicans. However, Memphis failed to receive the same steady contributions in Tuesday night’s 108-107 loss to the Spurs. Mike Conley remains questionable (illness) for tonight’s matchup. The Grizzlies will play this game on no rest (2-5 record on back-to-backs).
Bulls
Chicago comes into tonight’s matchup with unusual optimism. Despite riding a two-game losing streak, the team has shown some recent signs of improvement. The combination of a healthy roster, improved continuity in Jim Boylen’s system, and the addition of Otto Porter has the Bulls headed in the right direction. Tonight will serve as the final game of Chicago’s three-game homestand. Kris Dunn (back) remains questionable for tonight. The Bulls are 8-28 when playing on one day’s rest.
Edge: Bulls
The success of Memphis’ new rotation has been fool’s gold. Relying on nightly contributions from burnt-out veterans like Noah, C.J. Miles, and Avery Bradley is a recipe for disaster. Coming off a hard-fought game last night that saw three players play over 34 minutes, the Grizzlies will deal with fatigue. Conversely, the Bulls are rested, rejuvenated, and eager to end this homestand with a win.
Statistical Breakdown
Grizzlies
Despite undergoing a roster overhaul, the Grizzlies continue to play a similar brand of basketball.
Offensively, Memphis emphasizes a deliberate pace with two-pointers and free throw attempts. In four games since the roster overhaul, the Grizzlies continue to play at a snail’s pace 97.38 (28th) and have an offensive rating of 105.1 (25th). Over this span, Memphis ranks 11th in percentage of field-goal attempts from two-pointers (66.8) and ninth in percentage of points from free throws (16.8).
Relying on precise half-court execution made sense when the Grizzlies had Conley and Gasol. However, their current roster lacks the necessary personnel and chemistry to execute this type of offense. Since the Gasol trade, their lack of offensive continuity is evident in their 24th-ranked assist ratio (16.8).
Ranked 10th in defensive rating (107.9) over the last four games, Memphis continues to look to defense as its calling card. Gasol, however, anchored the team’s defense, so it’s only a matter of time before this unit crumbles. Under Gasol, the team ranked second in opponent points in the paint per game (41.1). Without Gasol, this number has spiked up to 44.5, which ranks outside of the top 10.
Bulls
Over the last five games, Chicago’s offense has appeared to turn a corner. Improved continuity combined with a healthier roster are major reasons for the offensive explosion.
During this span, Chicago has the fifth-highest offensive rating (116.9) and the eighth-best assist to turnover ratio (2.07). The high assist to turnover ratio serves as a great indicator for the team’s improved rapport. Over these five games, the Bulls rank third in points in the paint per game (56.4), 10th in true shooting percentage (58.7), and 10th in effective field-goal percentage (54.7). Additionally, the Bulls generate most of their offense from two pointers, ranking fourth in percentage of field goals attempted from within the arc (69.2).
Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen have made the most notable improvement. LaVine is averaging 25.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists along with an improved 1.6% turnover percentage in February. Concurrently, Markkanen has averaged 25.0 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game while shooting 51.2% from the field and 33.3% from three over his last five games.
Porter has taken a lot of pressure off LaVine and Markkanen. His presence has eased both of their offensive burdens and has enabled them to play within themselves. Porter has played quite well since joining the Bulls, averaging 17.7 points on 52.6% shooting from the field and 57.1% accuracy from downtown.
However, Chicago remains a mess on the defensive end. Over the last five games, the Bulls are 26th in defensive rating (119.9), 28th in opponent points in the paint per game (54.8), and 21st in opposing second-chance points per game (13.6).
Edge: Bulls
Despite their struggles on the defensive end, the Bulls still possesses the matchup advantage. The Grizzlies’ inability to precisely execute their offense will prevent them from exploiting the Bulls’ vulnerable defense. Conversely, the Bulls will have no problem exposing the Grizzlies’ floundering interior defense.
Line Analysis
The opening line for this game was -1 Chicago. Despite the public placing 55% of the betting action on Memphis, the line has shifted drastically in the opposite direction to -2.5 Chicago. The reverse line movement indicates heavy sharp betting action placed on the Bulls.
Edge: Bulls
This type of sharp betting action is tough to ignore. The sharps have clearly identified value in Chicago’s low line and have subsequently made the Bulls the side to back.
Verdict: Bulls
While Memphis comes in fatigued and struggling to find chemistry, Chicago enters tonight’s matchup well rested with a humming offense. The Grizzlies’ deteriorating interior defense will struggle to fend off the Bulls’ attack. Furthermore, the sharp bettors are firmly backing the Bulls. Take Chicago at -2.5 in an easy win.