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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions (Friday)

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The Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks battle it out in the second game of Friday’s NBA Play-In Tournament to determine who will advance to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

Below are some of our top NBA Play-In Tournament picks and prop bets for Friday, April 18th’s contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies.

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Friday’s Best NBA Play-In Tournament Picks & Predictions

Mavericks +6 (-108)

The Grizzlies’ most pressing question is Ja Morant’s status. He was injured in the game against the Warriors, and given how close that matchup was, they could have won if Morant had been in the game.

They still have scoring options. Jaren Jackson Jr. led the team in points per game this season, while Desmond Bane had 30 points in the loss. If Morant’s ankle isn't 100%, you take away his ability to drive to the lane. The Grizzlies will need those guys to step up.

Rookie Zach Edey will have the tough task of slowing down Anthony Davis. He had a great stat line in his last game, scoring 14 points and recording 17 rebounds, but that was against Golden State. The Warriors don't have a strong inside presence, but Dallas is a different beast with Anthony Davis on the boards.

The Mavericks were hitting on all cylinders against the Kings, as their inside presence was dominant, and they were draining threes. Klay Thompson looked vintage, going 5-for-7 from behind the arc, and Brandon Williams was impactful, too, with 17 points in 18 minutes.

The Grizzlies might have some confidence coming into the game after destroying the Mavericks 132-97, but Davis or Thompson did not play in that game. The addition of them to this game could keep it close and make it exciting.

-John Supowitz

NBA First Basket Scorer(s): Ja Morant (+550)/Desmond Bane (+750)

I don't think either of these teams expected to be in this spot a few months ago. Due to internal turmoil on both teams, things fell apart down the stretch, and now only one will advance to the playoffs. In what could be the last opportunity for the year, I will be looking to back the Grizzlies again to score first.

Memphis's 60% success rate on first baskets is one of the best in the league, and the success rate of Zach Edey on opening tips implies more success. They've been particularly successful with their guards. Dallas has struggled against guards in this prop. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane have combined to score 32 of Memphis's 83 first-team scores, good for nearly 40%.

Morant made his 10th first basket on Tuesday, good for second on the team. The leader, Bane, had an impressive 30 points in the close loss. Both players will look to get going, and I like both as first-basket plays on Friday.

-Ryan Rodeman

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-120)

I've trusted the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet with my life this season, and I'm not going to stop now. It projects Jaren Jackson Jr. for over 22 points, and despite the juiced line, I'm riding it. Dallas may be coming off a solid defensive performance against Sacramento, but to finish the year, they ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency while still maintaining a pace nearly as fast as Memphis.

The Grizzlies return home, where Jackson sees a scoring bump, and he has seen ample minutes of late, which has translated to additional scoring. He saw the court for nearly 40 minutes against Golden State and should see similar minutes tonight. With the pace of this game, I'm leaning to take a lot of overs as I'm surprised the total is only 221. 

-Ryan Coleman

Zach Edey More Than 12.5 Rebounds

Though his team didn't get the win, Zach Edey's NBA postseason debut went about as well as it could have. He finished the game with 14 points and a whopping 17 rebounds. I expect a similar rebounding performance tonight.

While Edey averaged 8.3 rebounds per game during the regular season, he's seen a significant increase in playing time of late, which has directly correlated to more rebounds. Since April 1st, he's played at least 28 minutes in all seven of his games. He has at least 13 rebounds in six of those contests.

Edey’s season average is based on 21.3 minutes per game. If he continues to play 30+ minutes, this number should be set closer to 14.5 than 12.5, especially against a team allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game in the league.

-Phil Wood

Santi Aldama More Than 10 Points

Santi Aldama scored 14 points in Tuesday's loss to the Golden State Warriors. While he didn't light up the scoreboard, he shot well in that game, knocking down five of his eight shots and all three of his free throws. The game marked just his second double-digit performance in six tries, but there is still value in taking him to score at least 11 tonight.

Aldama has faced the Mavericks twice this season. He's had one good performance and one bad. The first time he played them, he went 7-of-8 from the floor and scored 15 points. The second time, he only scored six. While Aldama is averaging 1.8 made threes per game, he's just 1-of-3 against the Mavericks this season.

The Mavericks have one of the best three-point defenses in the league, which is a bit worrisome for a shooter like Aldama. However, he's already proven he can do enough damage inside against them to top this number and get near his season average of 12.5 points.

-Phil Wood

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies Same-Game Parlay

Memphis has won four out of the last five contests against Dallas, including a 132-97 victory on this past Sunday to close out the season. The Grizzlies have won the last three contests against the Mavericks, and the previous two games when playing at home. Memphis played exceptionally against the Warriors on Tuesday, yet fell just short in the final few minutes.  We feel this Dallas team is not nearly as formidable as Golden State, giving the Grizzlies a fantastic opportunity to make the playoffs.
The Mavericks and Grizzlies are averaging a combined 229.6 points over their last five contests. Meaning oddsmakers are expecting more of a defensive battle in this contest. These two teams have cleared 221 points in nine out of their last 10 games combined. The last contest Memphis was involved in that did not exceed 221 points was six games ago.
The 113.5 total for Memphis once again simply appears to be too low in what should be a matchup featuring a solid tempo between two teams that are highly capable of scoring in bunches. Memphis is averaging 118 points over its last 10 contests, while shooting 47.4 % as a team.
The Grizzlies have surpassed 113.5 points in four out of the previous five games. Memphis has cleared 113.5 in six straight games against Dallas. The Grizzlies are averaging 120.3 points over that span, with a 47.3% team field-goal rate.
We close out the last leg of this parlay with a straightforward selection. Over his last 20 games, Ja Morant is averaging 27.3 points, scoring at least 20 points in 19 of those games.
Morant has scored a minimum of 20 points in 18 consecutive contests. Against the Mavericks, Morant has eclipsed this point threshold in the previous four games. The Memphis guard is averaging 23.1 points over his last 10 contests against the Mavericks, including 31 points in back-to-back matchups this season.
Parlay Odds: +204

-Steve Krebs

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