Hawks vs. Heat NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions (Friday)
The Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat battle it out in the first game of Friday’s NBA Play-In Tournament to determine who will advance to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Below are some of our top NBA Play-In Tournament picks and prop bets for Friday, April 18th’s contest between the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks.
Friday’s Best NBA Play-In Tournament Picks & Predictions
Hawks +1 (-110)
The Hawks have a chip on their shoulder coming into this game. Trae Young was visibly upset with the officiating in the last game against Orlando, which led to his ejection, so he could be fired up today.
Atlanta has the fifth-best scoring offense in the league, but it ran into a buzzsaw against Orlando’s top-rated defensive unit. It shot just 38.1% from the floor and 19% from three. Atlanta needs to move the ball around more and find the high-percentage shot. The Magic defense smothered it and forced contested shots.
Miami has a solid defense, but it will not bring as much pressure as Orlando did to Atlanta. They started that game hot against Chicago, scoring 71 points in the first half and holding a 24-point lead before coasting in the second half.
The Heat need Tyler Herro to play with the same intensity as the last game, where he scored 38 points, with 23 in the first half. They will keep this game close if they can match up with Atlanta’s perimeter shooting. Bam Adebayo also needs to have a strong presence inside.
Ultimately, you must trust the home team and their heavy offensive advantage. Atlanta can speed up this game, and for the Heat, which tends to play slower, it could have them on their heels, trying to play catch-up.
-John Supowitz
First-Basker Scorer: Bam Adebayo (+550)
These teams are very familiar with the NBA Play-In Tournament, as no team has played more games in the event than Miami and Atlanta. In a winner-take-all scenario, getting off to a hot start is crucial. Both teams have been good at winning opening tip-offs and scoring first. There is one play I like based on the matchup.
Bam Adebayo has been one of the best first-basket scorers in the league. He's cashed 15 of them on the year, nearly 20% of his starts. Atlanta provides a particularly good matchup as they've allowed over a quarter of their opponents' first scores to power forwards like Adebayo. I like him to add to his impressive total with a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
-Ryan Rodeman
Tyler Herro Over 35.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-118)
Last time out, it worked out just fine going with Tyler Herro's props. If you took my advice, you may have cashed some alts as well. His points + assists + rebounds prop was at 35.5 last time, and he scored 38 points alone. Pure scoring alts would have been the way to go. Either way, I'm going right back to the well as Miami looks to earn the right to lose in the first round of the NBA playoffs to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Atlanta has been the third-fastest-paced team in the NBA, with the 20th-ranked defense, over their last 15 games. On the season, they aren't much better at 18th, so it's not like they are on a dry spell of sorts. The Hawks have allowed the seventh most combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing point guards.
While Herro's 30 points a game of late doesn't scream sustainable, I still think his 32% usage rate does, especially in a game like tonight. He will be the go-to scorer for Miami and get a lot of looks. It would be great if Miami is playing from behind and the former Kentucky guard needs to put the pedal to the metal because the shot attempts will be there without question. Combine that with his five boards and five assists per game averages, and it's a clear over.
-Ryan Coleman
Trae Young Under 42.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120)
A player I'm riding the under on is Trae Young. This is for sure a zag to my usual tactics and strategy, but the number has simply grown too high against the league's fourth-best defense over their final 15 games.
Miami will also slow down this game immensely with the fourth-slowest pace of play, so the opportunity alone will be stifled. Sure, Trae Young has a high usage rate similar to Tyler Herro, but his opportunities will be limited compared to his averages. He's only covered this line in 48% of games, a coin flip against a standard opponent. In a pace-down spot against a red-hot defense, I'm happy fading him going off.
-Ryan Coleman
Trae Young More Than 11 Assists
An assist number set at 11 is absurd, and yet, the more than is the right play. Trae Young had just six assists in a frustrating 40 minutes against the Orlando Magic on Tuesday, but he averaged 11.6 assists per game this season. I expect him to get back on track tonight.
The main reason I'm so confident in Young is his success against the Heat this season. He's faced them four times this year, dishing out at least 12 assists in three of those games. The only time he didn't, he assisted on eight made baskets in 36 minutes.
Before his six-assist performance against the Magic, Young had dished out double-digit assists in four consecutive games and 11 of his last 12. He leads the NBA in assists for a reason. He will top this very high number in a do-or-die game for the Hawks.
-Phil Wood
Onyeka Okungwu Under 14.5 Points (-105)
The “under points 60%+ hit rate low vig” system has earned a 16.2% return on investment (ROI) with a 62.4% win percentage over its last 4,748 bets. Ultimately, this system looks for players to go under in their points total, with odds ranging from -130 to -101. It also looks for the player to have hit the over in no more than two of the last five games and four of the last 10 games.
Onyeka Okungwu of the Hawks fits the script. The Hawks center has hit at least 15 points in just two of his last five and four of his last 10. He’s also added at least 15 points in just 15% of head-to-head matchups against the Miami Heat in his career.
Additionally, Okungwu will face a Heat team ranked eighth in the NBA in points allowed to centers. Nothing will come easily for Okungwu. Let’s back his under.
-Jason Radowitz
Zaccharie Risacher Under 3.5 Rebounds (-160)
This system looks for players to go under in rebounds. So far, it’s added a 7.7% ROI with a 59.8% win percentage over its last 4,634 bets. It’s also added more than 357 units of profit over the last year.
This system looks for players who have hit the over less than 68% of the time in the rebounds category. In addition, the player can’t have hit the over in more than six of the last 15 games to qualify for this system.
Atlanta rookie Zaccharie Risacher has added at least four rebounds in just 43% of games this season. He’s also added at least four rebounds in just one of his last five games and three of his last 10 games. Beyond that, he’s hit at least four rebounds in just 43% of games this season.
Risacher will battle a Heat team ranked fourth in the NBA in rebounds allowed to small forwards. That’s not ideal for Risacher. I’m on the under.
-Jason Radowitz
Trae Young Under 3.5 Three-Pointers Made (-166)
The last system has earned a 14.6% ROI with a 64.3% win percentage. It’s also added nearly 493 units of profit over its last 3,381 bets.
To qualify for the “NBA 3PM Under 50% -175+” system, a player has to have hit the over in fewer than 50% of games this season. Beyond that, the cost for the player’s under has to be at -175 to +1100. In addition, the player has to have hit the over in no more than two of the last five, five of the last 10, eight of the last 15 and 10 of the last 20 games.
While the Miami Heat aren’t great at defending the three, we can’t ignore the fact that Trae Young has added at least four threes in just 32% of games this season. He’s also hit this line in just 15% of his last 20 head-to-head games against the Heat. Young has earned at least four threes in two of his last five but only three of his last 10.
Even for Young, asking for four three-pointers is a lot. Consider the under.
-Jason Radowitz
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks Same-Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Miami Heat -1 (-110)
- Leg 2: Miami Heat Team Total Over 109.5 Points (-115)
- Leg 3: Tyler Herro Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
- Leg 4: Zaccharie Risacher Under 11.5 Points (-125)