Hawks vs. Kings ATS Pick for 1/30 (Sports Betting)
Like clockwork, Wednesday nights provide us with an appetizing slate of NBA action. With over half the league playing, there will be no shortage of excitement. However, the night’s fastest and most profitable game will take place in Sacramento, where the Kings host the Hawks.
Current Form
Hawks
Atlanta comes into tonight’s matchup much improved. The Hawks will play the final game of a surprisingly competitive four-game road trip in which they followed up a blowout win in Chicago with a competitive loss in Portland and a shocking win over the Clippers. The Hawks’ intriguing young core is blossoming before our eyes. John Collins has looked impressive, averaging 26 points and 6.6 rebounds during the road trip. Trae Young has hit a nice groove, averaging 28 points and 8.0 assists over his last two games. Atlanta will play this game on one day’s rest (12-21 record in such situations).
Kings
Sacramento returns from a disappointing and taxing 10-day road trip (2-4). Fortunately, the Kings have had a chance to rest up, as they haven’t played since Sunday afternoon. Despite an underwhelming trip, they remain the NBA’s surprise story of the year. Pegged by many as a lottery team, the Kings have played .500 basketball (25-25) thanks to breakout seasons from De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. More so than other teams, Sacramento plays with completely different energy at home (14-10 home record) as opposed to away (11-15). The Kings are 4-6 on two days’ rest.
Edge: Kings
The Kings come into tonight’s matchup in better shape. The Hawks are playing their fourth straight road game as well as their third game in five days, and they have also struggled mightily when playing on little rest. Conversely, Sacramento will be recharged from extra rest and eager to win on its home court for the first time in over two weeks.
Statistical Breakdown
Hawks
Atlanta takes full advantage of its youthful roster by leaning on an abundance of young, fresh legs. The Hawks rank first in the league in pace (105.07) and possessions per game (107.9). Their up-tempo style also translates to a lot of fast-break opportunities. They are eighth in fast-break points per game (16.1) and ninth in fast-break efficiency (1.89). Yet they rank dead last in turnovers per game (18.6) and turnovers per offensive play (15.6%).
The Hawks have a very analytically friendly shot chart. The majority of their shots come at the rim or from the three-point line. Atlanta is 10th in percentage of points coming from three-pointers (31.6) and third in field goals attempted per game within five feet of the basket (36.5). However, Atlanta doesn’t shoot either of these shots particularly well. The Hawks are 27th in three-point percentage (33.7) and 21st in field-goal percentage within five feet of the basket (60).
The Hawks are a bad defensive team. They place 25th in defensive rating (111.5) and 30th in opposing fast-break points per game. They do, however, force 16.1 turnovers per game, which is fifth-highest in the league. These turnovers subsequently fuel their fast-break game. The team ranks eighth in percentage of points off turnovers (16.4).
Kings
Similar to Atlanta, Sacramento plays at a blistering speed. The Kings play at the league’s second-fastest pace (104.11) and rank fourth in possessions per game (106.8). Sacramento also thrives in transition, ranking second in fast-break efficiency (2.53) and first in fast-break points per game (21.3). Surprisingly, the Kings’ young guards still do an excellent job of taking care of the basketball. Despite the frantic pace, they rank 12th in turnovers per game (14.1) and seventh in turnovers per offensive play (12%).
Defensively, they have been a pleasant surprise. The Kings are ninth in opposing three-point percentage (34.6) and 17th in fast-break efficiency (1.8). They have also forced the third-most turnovers per game (16.7) and rank fifth in opponent turnovers per offensive play (14.1%). The turnovers have been a catalyst for their transition game, as no team has scored a higher percentage of points off turnovers (18.3)
Edge: Kings
While both teams prefer to play at a breakneck pace, the Kings are the only side thriving. In transition, Sacramento scores and defends at a much higher level than Atlanta. Since this is the Hawks’ third game in five days, fatigue could prevent them from playing at their desired pace. The Kings will be able to neutralize the Hawks’ offensive focal points (points off turnovers and three-point shots) with their ability to take care of the basketball and play swarming perimeter defense. Additionally, the Kings will have no issues forcing giveaways against the turnover-prone Hawks.
Line Analysis
The opening line for this game was -6.5 Sacramento. Since then, it has shifted down a point to -5.5. Even with 71% of public bets backing the Kings, the line suffered reverse movement. This indicates that the sharp bettors found initial value in the Hawks at 6.5. The public usually fades them, so I expect the heavy public action to continue on the Kings. The line will likely get pushed back up to -6 by tip-off.
Edge: Even
Even though the sharp bettors found early value in Atlanta’s line, there is still significant value in Sacramento at -5.5. The line is a whole point lower than its opening and is a relatively low number for any home team playing an inferior opponent.
Verdict: Kings
At the moment, the Kings are a better version of the Hawks. They are more efficient in their fast-break scoring, more judicious with the basketball, and are significantly better in transitional defense. Furthermore, Sacramento is rested and better suited to play an up-tempo pace. Take the Kings at -5.5, as they should pull away with ease in the second half.
All stats courtesy of TeamRankings.com and NBA.com.