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Heat vs. Cavaliers ATS Pick for 1/2 (Sports Betting)

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The year has changed but the Wednesday night slate of NBA action stays the same. With 18 of 30 teams in play tonight, there will be no shortage of excitement. Tonight, the strongest play lies in a game that may be rough on the eye but will mature nicely in your wallet.

Current Form

Heat
Miami rolls into tonight’s game playing their best basketball of the season. With close to a full deck of players, Miami has rebounded from their 7-13 start by winning six of their last eight games. The Heat are again utilizing their depth to play 48 minutes of tenacious defense. Without Goran Dragic, Erik Spoelstra has found success by shifting Justice Winslow over to point guard. This move has allowed the team to double down on their size and the team’s defense has significantly improved. Miami will be playing this game on two day’s rest (4-1 record on two day’s rest).

Cavaliers
Cleveland limps into tonight’s matchup on a six-game losing streak. The Cavaliers have struggled to be competitive during this losing streak with a 13.67-Point Average Margin of Defeat. Injuries to Tristan Thompson and Rodney Hood have exacerbated the team’s paper-thin rotation. In desperation, Cleveland has turned to G-league caliber players Jaron Blossomgame and Jalen “I promise you I am not a made up 2K player” Jones to fill out their rotation. This will be the first time the Cavaliers have played a game on three day’s rest.

Edge: Heat
While Miami continues to play at an elite level, Cleveland is struggling to merely keep games close.  The Heat will be playing this game on ideal rest and will be feeling confident after beating Cleveland 118-94 last Friday.

Statistical Breakdown

Heat
Miami’s depth and defense are the keys to their success. Without a true superstar, Miami relies on a collective effort from their nine-man rotation. Subsequently, the Heat currently rank sixth in the league in Bench Points Per game (41.0) and are fourth in the league in Bench Efficiency (46.8).

Defensively, Miami’s interior defense is their biggest strength. Miami’s defense is predicated on funneling opposing team’s perimeter players to shoot low percentage shots at the rim (third in the league in Opponent Points from Two-Pointers). Led by Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo, the Heat rank fourth in the league in Blocks per Game (4.1) and Opponent Points in Paint per Game (41.2). Miami’s dominance in the paint is further evidenced by their top 10 offensive and defensive rebounding numbers.

Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are the most disorganized team in the NBA. Cleveland’s roster has been a revolving door of NBA journeymen and unproven young players. The players’ lack of experience combined with their poor continuity has contributed to the team’s lack of identity. The one thing these players have in common is that they all shoot a poor percentage at the rim (29th ranked Team Field Goal Percentage Within Five Feet of Basket). Things aren’t much better from the outside as the Cavs rank 22nd in Three-Point Percentage (34.8%). Cleveland’s absence of an offensive style is evident in the team being 29th in the league in Assists per Game (19.9). Without an offensive identity, the team regularly resorts to inefficient isolation basketball.

Edge: Heat
The Heat are a nightmare of a matchup for the Cavaliers. Miami’s shot blockers will completely hinder Cleveland’s ability to score at the rim. The G-league caliber players in Cleveland’s second unit will struggle mightily to keep those minutes competitive against the Heat’s elite bench unit.

Additionally, the Cavaliers inclination to play isolation basketball will play right into the Heat’s hands. Miami has a lot of wing defenders to throw at the Cavaliers’ isolation scorers, and Cleveland will struggle to score points throughout the night.

Line Analysis

The opening line for the game was -6 Miami. Since then, the line has shifted up to -6.5. The Heat are also receiving 77% of betting action that has been placed on the spread. Miami should continue to receive a heavy amount of the public action throughout the day as the Cavaliers are constantly faded by the public. The lack of resistance to the early line movement also indicates that the sharp bettors identified value in Miami. The spread should end up settling around -7.5 by tip-off.

Edge: Heat
With the line poised to move up another point during the day, there is a lot of value in Miami at its current number of 6.5.

Verdict

Miami is the clear choice tonight. The Cavaliers are struggling to keep games close and continue to be a disjointed mess on both ends of the court. Conversely, the Heat are healthy and have returned to playing their disciplined brand of basketball. Similar to last Friday, Cleveland will struggle to score against Miami’s defense and their lack of depth will be exposed. Take Miami -6.5 in a game they win with ease.

Jeremy Homler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive.