Heat vs. Celtics: NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals Picks & Predictions

The Eastern Conference Finals get started on Wednesday night. The 2-seeded Boston Celtics will host the 8-seeded Miami Heat. This is the first time an 8-seed has reached the Conference Finals since the Knicks did so in the lockout shortened 1998-99 season. These teams are very familiar with each other as this is the third time in the last four seasons these two teams will face off with a spot in the Finals on the line. The Heat prevailed in six games during the Orlando bubble of 2020, while the Celtics got their revenge in seven games last season. If history has taught us anything, this will be an incredibly entertaining series.

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NBA Eastern Conference Finals Picks & Predictions

Let’s dig a bit deeper into the Eastern Conference Finals and find some of the best betting angles.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics rode a strong regular season after their NBA Finals loss last year to a 2-seed in the Eastern Conference. Their path in the playoffs hasn’t gone as smoothly as they had hoped. Atlanta fought hard and took them to six games before falling. Afterward, the Celtics needed to overcome a 3-2 series deficit against the 76ers to reach the Conference Finals. With the depth this team possesses, they’re the most well-rounded team in the league. They had the second-ranked adjusted offensive rating and the third-ranked adjusted defensive rating. This helped them achieve the top adjusted net rating in the league.

Boston is a team that feels like they have unfinished business from all of the close calls in recent seasons. Miami is another stepping stone on that journey to another NBA title, but as Milwaukee and New York learned, they’re a more than capable team of knocking off the Celtics if taken too lightly.

Miami Heat

This iteration of the Miami Heat has been one of the most exciting underdog stories in NBA history. Led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, this team features multiple undrafted players in prominent roles. Most advanced metrics imply this team shouldn’t be here and yet they are. The offense ranked 25th in adjusted offensive rating during the season, but a top-10 defense with some clutch performances has propelled them back to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Miami defense has excelled all year at creating turnovers, defensive rebounding and not fouling. An opponents’ eFG% that ranked 25th in the regular season at 56.1% has dropped down to 53% in the playoffs and given the Heat the edge they’ve needed.

They’ve pulled off two series upsets to get to the Conference Finals, but this is a team that thrives on being counted out. Given what we saw in 2020 and 2022 there is no reason to believe Miami won’t give Boston a fight and possibly pull off another upset.

Season Series

The Celtics and Heat met four times during the regular season, splitting the series with two wins apiece. The matchups came down to the team that rebounded the ball better with the winner on the glass being the winner on the scoreboard in each game. These are both top-five rebounding teams based on DREB rate so the battle of the boards will be crucial.

Another factor in this series will be if Miami can force turnovers like they did during the regular season. In all four matchups, Miami won the turnover battle by 6.3 turnovers per game. Typically the Celtics were very good at taking care of the ball having just a 12.7% turnover rate, good for sixth-best in the league. Miami, with their third-ranked defensive turnover rate, was a thorn in the Celtics’ side.

With the last of the four matchups occurring all the way back on January 24, it can be difficult to get a lot of information out of the season series. Miami looks like a different team than competed during the regular season and the Celtics have found another gear offensively in the playoffs. The only thing you can rely on from regular season is that this series will be just as close and compelling as we saw during those four games.

Series Prediction

The loss of Tyler Herro for Miami has yet to really hurt them as Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and even Duncan Robinson have stepped up in games to get Miami to where they are now, but perhaps this is where it finally hurts them. Boston has so much depth and so much scoring prowess that it’s hard to imagine a way this series plays out without them winning.

Boston has, however, shown weakness, especially at the defensive end. Games against both Atlanta and Philadelphia where the defense seemed disinterested led to long grueling series. Miami is a well coached team with experienced playoff performers. They’ll look to try and ugly these games up with the hope of forcing this series to go long again. As the last two seasons showed us, these teams foil each other well and I expect this to go six or seven games. Boston should pull it out in the end, but Miami won’t go down without a fight.

Best Bets

Miami Series Spread +2.5 (-132 at FanDuel)

Series Total Games o5.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Miami to Win Game 1/Boston to Win Series  (+450 at MGM)

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