Home Run Derby Best Bets (2021)
It’s Home Run Derby time, folks. We had the Futures Game yesterday and have the actual All-Star Game tomorrow, but the Derby is the real show everyone comes to see. And this year, we get to watch the balls sail out of the ballpark known for its home runs: Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. As always, the best way to make things more interesting is to lay a few bets. Here’s what I’m betting for the 2021 Home Run Derby.
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MLB Home Run Derby 2021 Winner
First things first, let’s get to the odds. These vary from book to book, but I went with FanDuel Sportsbook as my preferred book for the Derby. Here are the odds for the eight different contestants, according to FanDuel.
Shohei Ohtani is the chalk pick for the Home Run Derby, and +260 isn't a good enough number for me. Instead, I'm going with one semi-favorite and one longshot for my two bets. Joey Gallo has some of the easiest power in the bigs, and easy power is often the name of the game in the Derby. It almost seems silly to fans watching at home, but these players get tired from taking all of these big swings in a row. And that often leads to misses and balls falling short as these guys start to run out of gas. For Gallo, running out of gas might just mean he hits a ball 400 feet instead of 450 feet. Pete Alonso at +450 and Matt Olson at +500 could fall into this category, too, but I think Gallo has the smoother and more repeatable swing (even though Alonso did win this event a couple of years ago).
My other pick is the hometown kid, Trevor Story. Story doesn't have the power that Gallo has, but he's no slouch, either. But he also has something that none of the other contestants have: a home-field advantage. Normally, that wouldn't mean a whole lot for a contest like the Home Run Derby. Other than sleeping in your own bed and knowing the ins and outs of your own ballpark, the playing field is relatively even. But this is Denver, Colorado. Story is used to playing at this altitude and won't get as tired as others, who may have difficulty catching their breath as the contest wears on. If Story can survive the first round, he might just be the favorite to win the whole thing. And at +900, I'm willing to find out.
Bets: Joey Gally (+420) and Trevor Story (+900)
Length of Longest Home Run: UNDER 519.5 feet (-110)
When the odds for the length of the longest home run for this year's Home Run Derby started coming out, the number at most sportsbooks was under 500 feet. The consensus number I could find was around 492.5 feet. Obviously, things have ballooned a bit. With the Home Run Derby being played at Coors Field, the report that MLB won't be using the humidor for the Derby, and the presence of players like moonshot specialist Joey Gallo, bettors started hammering the over. And all of those reasons are valid, but we may have finally reached a point where the number (the length, that is) is too high.
The longest home run ever tracked by Statcast was a 513-footer hit by Aaron Judge, but that was back in 2017 in a dome with juiced baseballs. Even in Coors Field with the humidor turned off, that means a 2021 participant (presumably Gallo) would have to break the record by seven feet in order for the over to hit. And while this might be minor, you also have to factor in the fact that players not named Trevor Story won't be used to the altitude and may get tired. Give me the under.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.