Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Odds and Game Pick (2020)
The Cleveland Browns have one of the most powerful rushing offenses in the league. The Houston Texans have one of the league’s worst run defenses.
Sounds like a match made in heaven, right? Let’s dig into the Week 10 matchup.
View consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 10 of the NFL >>
Details
- Opening Lines: Cleveland -2.5
- Last Meeting: December 2nd, 2018, Texans 29-13
Game Odds
View consensus picks and notes from top betting experts for the Texans vs. Browns >>
Overview
Some games are easier to handicap than others. This game is definitely one of those examples.
The Browns don’t just run the ball often, they run it effectively. Cleveland ranks fourth in the league averaging five rushing yards per attempt. Better yet, Cleveland’s top running back could be coming back to the lineup.
Nick Chubb has missed the last four games with an MCL sprain but was activated off injured reserve this week. While Chubb’s return isn’t a given at this point, the running back said he’s feeling great and ready to return to action.
On the flip side, Houston’s defense has struggled mightily to defend the run. The Texans are giving up 5.1 yards per attempt and have surrendered at least 177 rushing yards in every game this season. Interim head coach Romeo Crennel is 2-2, but he’s failed to address the team’s most fatal flaw.
While Cleveland holds a huge advantage in the ground game, Houston definitely has the advantage in the passing game. And that could be the great equalizer.
Deshaun Watson is the far superior quarterback to Baker Mayfield, who was recently activated off the COVID/Reserve list. The Texans rank 10th in passing offense, while the Browns rank 22nd against the pass. If the Texans are going to stay in this game, Watson will have to connect early and often with Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller against a mediocre Cleveland secondary.
The bad news for Watson and Co. is that star pass rusher Myles Garrett should be healthy for this game too. Garrett, who has nine sacks in eight games, could feast against a Texans offensive line that’s given up 24 sacks.
Trends
- The Browns have lost their last five games to Houston, dating back to 2008.
- Cleveland is 2-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and are 6-6-1 in the same spot since 2018.
- The Texans are 1-7 ATS this season and 1-3 ATS under Romeo Crennel.
Bottom Line
This mismatch isn’t too good to be true. Houston’s only two wins have come against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile, Cleveland is coming off a bye and could get arguably its best offensive player back to add to what’s already a huge advantage in the run department.
This feels like a game the Browns control from the start. The running game will set the tone early. And while Watson will make some plays, his offensive line will likely fail him too many times under the duress caused by Garrett and the Browns front seven.
I’d feel more comfortable if I could get -3 or better, but I have no problem laying the points with Cleveland.
The pick: Cleveland -3.5, try to get -3 or better
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.