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Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds & Game Pick

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The Texans are fresh off a crucial victory over the Titans, giving them a one-game lead in the AFC South. Houston will try to hold on to that in a tricky AFC-NFC clash at Tampa on Saturday. If you take a glance at the Texans’ schedule, this fits the criteria of a trap game. Houston will take on Tennessee next week as well, as that game could have implications for the divisional title as well. Combine that with an unusual Saturday game (on the road nonetheless), and there’s some room for concern in Houston’s camp. 

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There’s no doubt that the Buccaneers are playing better football, as they have rattled off four-straight victories. Granted, all of those opponents are currently sitting on losing records, but Tampa has passed the eye test with improved play over the past month. The offense has been doing its part while averaging 35 points over that span, and the defense has been holding on (forcing turnovers as well) to secure wins. Can they frustrate Houston QB Deshaun Watson enough to grab their fifth-straight triumph on Saturday? 

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Details

  • Opening Line: The spread has held steady at Texans -3 with the over/under dropping from 53 to 50. 
  • Current Line: Texans -3 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: 50 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL 
  • Start Time: Saturday 12/21 @ 1:00 ET
  • Television: NFL Network
  • Last Meeting: September 27, 2015 – Texans won 19-9 in Houston

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Texans at Buccaneers >>

Overview

When this line was released, some people reacted that it was much lower than expected. The talent gap between these two teams implies that Houston should be more than a three-point favorite. However, the situational factors listed above help rationalize why the spread is so low. The Texans are playing on the road against an improved Buccaneers team that has some wind in their sails (excuse the pun). Would it be all that surprising if Houston came out a little bit flat in this Saturday afternoon game? Almost 70% of the public jumped on the Texans ATS early in the week, and the BettingPros’ experts are in a similar boat at 71%. You can check back to see if those numbers change throughout the week. 

Trends

  • The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a favorite.
  • The Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four overall. 
  • The under is 5-2 in the Texans’ last seven. 
  • The over is 11-1 in the Buccaneers last 12 overall. 

Prop Bets

DeAndre Hopkins OVER 115 Receiving Yards
Yes, this is a ton of yardage for a prop, but Hopkins is an absolute beast in one of the best matchups for a receiver. The Buccaneers are solid against the run and extremely generous to the pass, which should funnel targets (and subsequent yardage) towards Hopkins. The Texans’ receiver has crossed this threshold in each of his last two games, and this probably his most favorable draw of the year. 

Bottom Line

I’m somewhat apprehensive given the situational factors listed throughout this article. Even though the Texans may start slow, I believe they have the talent to pull away in the final quarter. It’s not going to be smooth throughout, but Houston should win and cover in this Saturday afternoon matchup. 

Pick: Texans -3 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 16

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+10)
New York Giants at Washington (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-7)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2)
Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears (+6)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.