Navigate

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Game Pick

by |

The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are both coming off of gut-wrenching games that they should’ve won.

The Texans had a 22-9 lead over the New England Patriots before a series of unfortunate events, including a Houston punt that went off a player’s helmet, led to their demise. Meanwhile, the Colts played an excellent 50 minutes before collapsing on Monday night against the Ravens.

Which of these one-win teams can bounce back and score a critical divisional win? Let’s break it down.

Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>

Details

  • Opening line: Indianapolis -11.5
  • Current line: Indianapolis -10
  • Total: 42.5

At least the Texans try…

That’s all I could think of for this header. The Texans stink. But aside from a 40-0 loss to Buffalo in Week 4, they’ve been somewhat competitive. The Texans are 3-2 ATS and have covered as 8-point and 13.5-point underdogs earlier in the year.

Perhaps the most shocking storyline from last week was Davis Mills’ performance against Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense. After throwing four interceptions in the blowout mentioned above, Mills responded in a big way, throwing for 312 yards and three touchdowns.

The Texans need Mills to produce because their running game doesn’t exist. Houston averages just 3.1 yards per carry and ranks dead-last in rush offense DVOA. However, that might not be the worst thing in the world against a strong Colts run defense.

And here’s a fun fact, Houston isn’t a total dumpster fire defensively. They rank 15th in defensive DVOA, 9th in pass defense DVOA, but 30th in rush defense DVOA.

Check out all of our game previews and picks for the week >>

Can the Colts bounce back from Monday night meltdown? 

Many people might think the Colts are completely dead after losing Monday night heartbreakingly. The biggest question for this game will be whether they believe it too.

While Indianapolis is undoubtedly behind the eight-ball, they aren’t dead yet. They still have four games against Jacksonville and Houston remaining and winnable games against the Jets, 49ers, Patriots, and Raiders on the schedule. Plus, the Colts have been in every game this season and are a few plays away from a better record and overall outlook on the season.

If there’s one positive from Monday night’s loss, it’s tailback Jonathan Taylor. The second-year pro proved he’s a star against Baltimore, piling up 167 total yards and scoring two touchdowns. He should be poised for a big day against a terrible Texans run defense.

Meanwhile, Carson Wentz has been okay. Not extraordinary, but not terrible. He’s coming off his best game of the season, during which he racked up 402 yards and two touchdowns. He’s also done a much better job taking care of the ball, as he’s thrown just one interception and fumbled only twice this season. Of course, reuniting with Frank Reich has helped.

Meanwhile, the Colts are opposites on defense, and you saw it last Monday night. Indianapolis did an outstanding job stuffing Baltimore’s potent running game. The Colts rank second in rush defense DVOA. The problem is, Indianapolis can’t stop anyone from throwing the ball on them. As a result, they’ve given up eight net yards per pass attempt and have surrendered a league-worst 15 passing touchdowns.

Even little ole Davis Mills might be able to throw on this defense.

Bottom Line 

This certainly isn’t one of my favorite games to bet. But there are a few reasons why I think I’ll be on the underdog Texans in this one, none of which are being under the influence of drugs or alcohol, I promise.

First off, a double-digit spread with such a low total is conspicuous. Second, I suspect Mills and the Texans’ passing game could have more success against a terrible Colts secondary. Third, I don’t know if Indianapolis will get up for this game after a loss that many believe crushed their season. Indy also hasn’t been great as a home favorite under Reich, going just 10-10-1 in this spot.

I’d consider waiting a bit longer on this game, as I could see this spread going above -10. However, if I had to play this game, I would take the divisional road underdog as long as it is at double digits.

The pick: LEAN Texans +10

Get the best online sportsbook offers in your state >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Use Public Betting Information to Your Advantage — to learn more.

Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.