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Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Sports Betting Guide

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The battle between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs is one with struggling defenses and prolific offenses, led by incredibly talented, young quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson is coming off a big 53-32 win over the Falcons, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fell to the Colts in a low-scoring, 19-13 game.

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Texans vs Chiefs Odds and Info

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Opening Lines: KC -5, O/U 55.5
  • Moneyline: HOU (+182) | KC (-210)
  • Spread: HOU +5 (-110) | KC -5 (-110)
  • Total: 54.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, MO
  • Start Time: 1 pm ET
  • Coverage: CBS

Injuries

  • Houston Texans: C Greg Mancz (Q), WR Kenny Stills (Q), RB Taiwan Jones (Q)
  • Kansas City Chiefs: DT Xavier Williams (IR), Chris Jones (D), WR Sammy Watkins (Q), WR Tyreek Hill (Q), LB Anthony Hitchens (Q)

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Texans at Chiefs >>

Overview

Houston came out on top in the shootout with Atlanta last week, totaling 592 yards and 53 points in the win. This week, they face another weak defense that has been exposed over the past couple weeks. The Texans will look to run the ball and control the clock, keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Led by Carlos Hyde, the Texans are averaging 129.4 rushing yards per game (10th-most). If the game turns into a shootout, Houston still has Deshaun Watson and a talented passing attack. Watson is averaging 272.8 passing yards per game, passing to a talented receiving corps of DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee, and Kenny Stills. Defensively, the secondary is a weakness, giving up 292.6 passing yards per game. This could be bad news with Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the football.

After two down games in a row, the Chiefs’ offense is looking to get back on track against that previously mentioned secondary. The biggest issue for Kansas City has been stopping the run, giving up 5.3 yards per rush (second-most). This has allowed other teams to control the clock and limit the amount of plays Mahomes and the offense gets, which is smart and is proving to work. The pass catchers for Mahomes could also be limited in this game, with Sammy Watkins not practicing Wednesday with a hamstring injury and Tyreek Hill questionable with his shoulder injury. Hill looks to be the closer one to playing, but Kansas City wants to make sure his joint is fully stable before bringing him back. Even with injuries, Mahomes and this offense are still incredibly dangerous. He has passed for over 300 yards every game this season, and he is in touchdown range no matter where he is on the field.

Trends

  • The total has hit the under in five of Houston’s last seven games.
  • Houston is 14-5 straight up in its last 19 games.
  • The total has hit the over in four of Houston’s last five road games.
  • Kansas City is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games against Houston.
  • The total has hit the over in nine of Kansas City’s last 13 games.
  • Kansas City is 12-4 straight up in its last 16 home games.
  • The Chiefs lead the all-time series with the Texans, 6-4.
  • Last Meeting: October 8, 2017 — The Chiefs defeated the Texans, 42-34, at NRG Stadium.

Prop Bet

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

First Half Total: Under 28 (-130)
I’ll get into more about the total for the entire game in a bit, but I do not see the first half hitting 28 total points. The Texans will come out and run the football early, keeping Mahomes off the field as much as possible. With Sammy Watkins likely out and the possibility of Tyreek Hill still missing time, the Chiefs may have some kinks to work out and look out of sync again early in this game. They could get on the same page at the half, but things are shaping up for a slow first half, like each of the past two games. They have averaged just 11.5 first-half points and five true drives in each of the past two games.

Bottom Line

The word is out in how to slow down the Chiefs. It may not stop them completely, but it should slow the game down and limit possessions. As said before, the Chiefs are terrible at stopping the run. Unfortunately, it may be even worse this week, with starting defensive tackle Chris Jones not practicing and being labeled as doubtful. The Chiefs missing offensive weapons also should lead to the out-of-sync play from the high-powered offense. They very well could win this game still, but I do not see the over hitting.

Pick: Under 54.5

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 6

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cleveland Browns (+1.5)
New Orleans Saints vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Washington Redskins vs. Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay (+2)
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets (+7)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos (-2)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.