Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Odds & Game Pick (2020)
Two teams expected to be battling it out for the AFC South crown will duke it out this Sunday, with a Texans win putting them back in the mix in their division. A loss, however, could put their season in jeopardy. The Titans seemingly galvanized from their bout with the adversity from COVID, will look to put the hammer down on the only divisional opponent they likely see as a true threat.
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Overview
The Houston Texans put up their first win of the season in Week 5. The ‘schedule gods’ did Houston a favor this season, loading them up with some of the toughest opponents in football right out of the gate, and in consecutive weeks. Perhaps they knew that one out of two Texans fans could not wait to see Bill O’Brien fired after he set the team back by three or more years with his exorbitant overpays, and blatant disregard for the true value of first round draft capital. He is just the latest hot-tempered former assistant to gut his team over ego and a desire to remove a player or player(s) voice and influence from the locker room. The Texans are a better team under Romeo Crennel.
Despite being depleted from COVID-19 ravaging their locker room, the Tennessee Titans looked like the team that came one win away from a Super Bowl appearance just last season on Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills. Now 4-0 on the season, the Titans will turn their sights to their divisional rivals in the Houston Texans. The fact that they were able to demolish the Bills without two of their top three receivers, or two of their top three cornerbacks, or their top defensive tackle, was a helpful reminder to the NFL world that the Titans should be counted out at our own peril. A win this weekend could help propel the Titans to an easy path to the AFC South crown.
Trends
- Texans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road contests
- Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as a favorite
- Under is 8-2 in Texans last 10 against the AFC South
- Over is 4-0 in the Titans last four contests against teams with losing records
- The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams
Prop Bets
Will Fuller over 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
BetMGM has some highly intriguing pre-packaged parleys that almost swayed me enough to include it as my pick here, but instead, I will just share it. At 5.50, BetMGM has a prop for Will Fuller and A.J. Brown to both hit 80 or more receiving yards. Both players have an excellent chance to hit, but the lowered probability of the parlay means I’d rather give you a potential winner with a much higher win probability.
Will Fuller should be able to go ham on the Titans on Sunday. Stefon Diggs made the Titans secondary his personal whipping boys. He torched them with 10 receptions for 106 receiving yards. Fuller will see a healthier cornerback room now that Kristian Fulton has returned to the team, but has the skill set to get free on more than a couple of occasions throughout the game.
Malcolm Butler actually played surprisingly well in Week 5, allowing just five of 10 targets to be caught for just 40 receiving yards, and hauling in two interceptions. The boneheadedness of the Bills errors on those plays notwithstanding, Butler’s performance last game keeps this to a one unit play. Fuller had just 58 yards receiving on eight targets last week, but should be more involved, and see more air yards in a contest the Texans have been projected by Vegas to be trailing in. Punch this in for one unit at BetMGM.
Bottom Line
Can you hear that? That’s your intuition screaming trap game. Yes, the Titans are playing on a short week, but being pegged as only 3.5 point home favorites, divisional or non divisional, certainly raises some eyebrows. Tennessee has been the far superior team this season and have seen most of their players return from the reserve/COVID list. The shorthanded Titans steamrolled the Bills in Week 5, and if Derrick Henry can get back to doing Derrick Henry things, the Texans are going to have a tough time covering the spread. Take the Titans to cover as the home team has won against the spread in six of the last eight contests between these two teams, but keep it to a one unit play.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.