Houston vs. Idaho: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Houston vs. Idaho.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Houston vs. Idaho

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Houston 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Kelvin Sampson has navigated this season with more turbulence than the final standings suggest. The Cougars suffered a three-game losing streak, knocking them out of the Big 12 title race, then turned around and finished with three straight wins before postseason play and subsequently had a solid Big 12 Tournament performance, setting themselves up nicely for the NCAA Tournament.

The Houston backcourt is genuinely elite when healthy. Future lottery pick Kingston Flemings set the Houston freshman scoring record and can take over any game. Emmanuel Sharp is one of the most capable two-way guards in the country, while Milos Uzan is the veteran floor general who holds everything together. The Cougars rank top seven in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, forcing turnovers at a top-10 clip with their physical, connected effort that's a staple of a Sampson team.

The depth concern is real, as Houston ranks 273rd in bench minutes. JoJo Tugler is a useful piece in the frontcourt but not a dominant player, and the Cougars’ margin for error as far as aggressive defense becoming foul trouble is thin. This team at its best is a three-guard attack with two experienced veterans and a freshman phenom leading the charge. But we haven't really seen that when the Cougars step up in class, ranking outside the top 20 offensively and defensively in Quad I games. Combine that with their defense dropping to 58th away from home, and you can see the concerns for the Cougars making a deep run. They also won’t be Shot Quality darlings with the number of midrange shots they take every game, ranking 364th in two-point attempt proximity. Still, guard play might be enough for Sampson to bring his team back to the Final Four.

Idaho 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Alex Pribble’s Vandals are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990, and their path here is one of the more unlikely stories of the year. Idaho was the 7-seed in its own conference tournament after going 9-9 in Big Sky play, then won four games in four days, with three of those wins coming by double digits, capped off by a 77-66 win over Montana in the title game. What makes this team go is collective effort in every phase. Idaho has four players averaging double-digit points, while seven players average better than three rebounds per game, led by 6-11 center Brody Rowbury. Idaho ranks inside the top five nationally in defensive rebounding rate, grabbing nearly 76 percent of opponent misses. That’s the foundation. They don’t block shots and they don’t force turnovers at a high rate, so if the defensive glass doesn’t hold, things get messy in a hurry.

On offense the reliance on perimeter shooting is total. Idaho led the Big Sky in three-point attempt rate, and the correlation between the Vandals’ three-point percentage and their outcomes is about as direct as you’ll find anywhere in the field. They went 15-2 when shooting over 35% from deep and 6-12 all other games. The saving grace is that five different players shoot at least 36% from three, including senior Isaiah Brickner at over 42%, so the heat can come from multiple places. Against a bigger, more physical team that can outrebound the Vandals and close out on their shooters, the path gets narrow. Against a team that gives up offensive rebounds and can’t match its perimeter depth, Idaho is a real problem.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

Subscribe to the BettingPros Podcast

Navigate