NFL Spread vs. Moneyline Betting: Which Is Better?

One of the most common questions in NFL betting is whether the point spread actually matters. If you like an underdog, should you just bet the moneyline? If you like a favorite, is laying the points worth it?

The answer isn’t as simple as “always bet the moneyline.” Historical NFL results show that spreads and moneylines perform differently depending on the type of team you’re betting, the odds you’re getting, and the sportsbook’s pricing.

Here’s what bettors should know before deciding between the spread and the moneyline.

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NFL Spread vs. Moneyline Betting: Which Is Better?

Does the NFL Spread Matter?

Around one in every five NFL games is decided by a margin that makes the point spread relevant. That’s far from insignificant. While it can be tempting to ignore the spread and simply bet the moneyline, doing so often means paying additional sportsbook hold.

Because sportsbooks typically charge more vig in the moneyline market than on point spreads, blindly switching from the spread to the moneyline usually reduces your long-term expected value.

Spread vs. Moneyline: What History Shows

Historical NFL betting results show several consistent trends:

• Bettors generally lose fewer bets on spreads than on moneylines because spreads typically carry a lower sportsbook hold.
• Blindly betting every underdog on the moneyline has historically performed worse than taking the points.
• Blindly betting every favorite against the spread has also underperformed compared to betting favorites on the moneyline.
• Neither strategy is profitable on its own, reinforcing that price and game-specific value matter more than market type.

When Betting the Moneyline Makes Sense

The biggest exception involves short underdogs.

Teams catching roughly a field goal or less often win outright often enough that the moneyline can outperform the spread-provided you’re getting a competitive price.

That’s why line shopping is critical. Two sportsbooks may offer the same point spread but very different moneyline prices, and those differences can eliminate the edge you’re trying to capture.

The spread matters more than many bettors think.

If you’re betting large underdogs, automatically switching to the moneyline has historically been a losing proposition. However, short underdogs can provide more value on the moneyline when the odds are favorable.

Ultimately, the decision shouldn’t be based on a blanket rule. Compare the spread, the moneyline, and the implied probabilities before placing a bet. In many cases, the best wager isn’t determined by the team; it’s determined by the price.

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