How to Bet on the NBA: 5 Tips and Strategies
The NBA season offers countless betting opportunities, with 30 teams playing 82 games each, plus the playoffs. Whether you start betting early in the season or prefer to wait for a larger sample size, the current landscape is more unpredictable than in recent years, with no single team dominating. Consider these strategies to grow your bankroll and maximize your NBA betting success.
How to Bet on the NBA
Understand the Schedule
NBA fans are familiar with the term “back-to-back,” which refers to teams playing on consecutive days. Many bettors instinctively fade teams in these situations, assuming fatigue will put them at a disadvantage. However, oddsmakers are aware of this tendency and may adjust lines accordingly.
For example, let’s say the Los Angeles Lakers, often considered vulnerable in back-to-backs due to an aging LeBron James and a thin bench, have covered the spread 7 out of 8 times in such situations. In fact, 13 NBA teams cover more than half their games on the second night of a back-to-back. Rather than assuming a team is automatically at a disadvantage, it's essential to research specific trends, such as how a team performs after a win or loss, with equal rest, or as a favorite or underdog at home or on the road.
Be Cautious with Early Bets
Another key term in NBA betting is “load management,” where teams rest their star players to keep them fresh for the playoffs. While spreads are often available 24 hours in advance, plans to rest key players may not be announced until shortly before the game. For example, your confidence in betting on the Clippers might hinge on whether Kawhi Leonard is playing or resting. Therefore, it's wise to avoid locking in bets too early and to wait until you're certain of the team's lineup.
Assess Motivation Levels
As the season progresses, some teams out of playoff contention may “tank” by giving more minutes to younger players, either to evaluate talent or improve draft position. Although the NBA has introduced measures to curb tanking, it still becomes clear which teams are motivated to improve their playoff seeding and which are not. Oddsmakers know this, but you can still find value, particularly when betting on totals instead of spreads.
Explore Player Props
While lines for spreads and totals can be adjusted, it's harder for oddsmakers to set player props accurately. Most sportsbooks offer various player props, such as points, assists, or rebounds. By analyzing a team's defensive stats or tendencies, you can often predict how an individual player will perform. Factors like a player's motivation, playing against a former team, or performing on a big stage like Madison Square Garden can also influence their stats. In these cases, player props can offer better value than traditional bets.
Wait on Team Futures
In many sports, placing futures bets early in the season can lead to significant payouts. However, in the NBA, it's often better to wait. While the league is more balanced now, certain teams are still playoff locks, and their futures odds won't change drastically by season's end. For example, the odds for teams like the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks to win the championship are unlikely to fluctuate much before the playoffs. By waiting, you avoid losing out if a star player gets injured or a rival team makes a game-changing trade. The appeal of early futures bets is getting favorable odds, but in the NBA, those odds usually remain steady, making it wiser to hold off.
By understanding these strategies, you can make more informed decisions and improve your chances of success when betting on the NBA.