How to Take Advantage of Line Movement
As you gain more experience in sports betting, you learn what things to pay attention to, and what causes the lines to be the way they are. Sometimes, the line will be different if you wait an hour to bet, and other times it will be the same. For why this occurs, check out my article on why lines move here. Once you understand this, it is important to know how to use this to your advantage.
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In sports betting, just like anything else in life, it is important not to force anything. That means when to know that a line is out of the range you want to place a bet. When a player is questionable or playing but might be struggling for the reason of injury or just lack of performance, sometimes the line moves out of speculation that the player may not play. Personally, I am not a believer in the fact that someone is (or is not) playing until I hear from the team itself, or the Adam Schefter type insiders who are extremely proven and resourceful. If there is movement based on speculation, I still won’t touch it, as once you place a bet it is final, and these teams are built to have all of their parts to run like a well-oiled machine, and one player can throw a wrench in that for at least the short-term.
Also, I personally don’t let the line dictate the bet that I take, but if I like a play at a certain line, and the line has moved too favorably towards a side, it may be out of the range to play it. For example, while I think a game may go over 140, to get it at 143.5 would have been able to be played at +130 before the movement. So, if I wanted that line, I would have sold the points when it was my choice to do so, rather than paying more and being in line for a nail-biter that may end in a bad beat.
On the other hand, there are plenty of things that can cause line movement that can play into the hands of the bettor. If a player is ruled as playing, that does not guarantee the team will win, in fact, sometimes the line movement is unwarranted in a bad matchup anyway as the line may have already moved out of speculation, leaving a great price on the underdog. While I think that line movement is noteworthy, it is just a microcosm of everything happening around the game, and it takes more than that to justify a bet! Bet smarter not harder, but also don’t be lazy with your money!
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Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Josh Weil is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Josh_Weil.