Ian Garry vs. Daniel Rodriguez UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions (5/13)

We are back at it with another Fight Night card that looks very promising. We have some up-and-coming prospects mixed with some grizzled veterans. Let’s review our last two articles and update our record. We were one fight away from having an amazing day in the Fight Night Sadong vs Simon card and we ended up missing the board last week at UFC 288. No need to worry though we have ample opportunity to get back into the positive.

Record:

• ML 6-3-1 (+3.25 units)
• Props 2-5-1 (-2.25 units)
• Parlays 0-4 (-2 units)
• Overall (-1 unit)

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.

Glossary

• Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
• Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
• Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
• Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
• Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
• KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
• Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
• Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
• Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is we are going to look at each fighter's last three fights. This is more indicative of a fighter's form and general ability than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Ian Garry vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Ian Garry (-300) vs Daniel Rodriguez (+250)

Ian Garry

• Dist Acc Off:  54.9%
• Dist Att/Min: 14.71
• Dist Def: 53%
• KD%: .6% (2 KDs out of 299 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 5.1%
• Control % Def: 13.2%

Daniel Rodriguez

• Dist Acc Off: 53.8%
• Dist Att/Min: 14.49
• Dist Def: 58%
• KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 264 distance strikes)
• Control % Off: 4.6%
• Control % Def: 17.7%

Ian Garry is the darling of the Welterweight division. The UFC is really wanting to push him as possibly the next Irish star, however, the matchup here leaves a lot to be desired. On paper, both Rodriguez and Garry are extremely evenly matched. They both will look to stand and trade at a distance. They fight at a similar pace with comparable accuracy and power. Rodriguez is 11 years older than Garry and has better defense. I feel as if the line should be much shorter than what it is. I’m taking Rodriguez at +250 off pure value and ability to fight his fight.

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You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next article. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!