Illinois vs. Penn: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Illinois vs. Penn.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Illinois vs. Penn

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Illinois 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Illinois owns the highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating of the KenPom era, sitting at 131.3 heading into the tourney. Again, that's the best-rated offense since 1997. Brad Underwood has been building toward something like this for years, and freshman point guard Keaton Wagler has been the final piece. Wagler is averaging over 18.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists, while shooting better than 40% from three. The likely lottery pick dropped 46 against Purdue and can make a name for himself in March doing something similar.

The supporting cast is deep. Kylan Boswell, with his 13.3 points a game, returned from a broken hand and steadied the backcourt. Andrej Stojakovic and David Mirkovic each average better than 12 points per game. The Ivisic brothers form one of the most unique frontcourt duos in the country, with both over 7 feet tall. Illinois is the tallest team in the country and ranks top 10 nationally in rebounding margin.

The concern is on the other end. Illinois’ defense is nowhere near as dominant as its offense. The Illini rank outside the top 25 defensively, but in Quad 1 games that drops to 99th. They don't force many turnovers — like, at the lowest rate in the country — so opponents will get shots up against them. An extra-hot night of shooting can send Illinois packing. It's also worth noting that a team to lose the first game of its conference tournament has never won the NCAA Tournament.

This team can score on anybody in the country. Whether Underwood has built enough defensive infrastructure around the most electric offense in hoops to survive a tournament bracket is what March will answer.

Penn 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Penn finished the Ivy League regular season 16-11 and 9-5 in conference play as the third seed heading into the tournament. Then they beat two-seed Harvard in overtime in the semis without senior captain Ethan Roberts, who was ruled out with a concussion. Then they trailed one-seed Yale by four with 12 seconds left in the championship game. Junior forward TJ Power hit a three to cut it to one, Penn fouled, Yale made both free throws to go up three, and Power took the pulled up from the wing to tie it again with time expiring. Penn won 88-84 in overtime to punch its first NCAA Tournament ticket since 2018. In his first year as head coach of his alma mater, former Iowa coach Fran McCaffery has now led four different programs to the tournament. Power was the Tournament MVP, putting up 44 points and 14 rebounds across the two games, becoming the leading scorer in Ivy League Tournament history. He is the program’s first ever five-star recruit, and moments like this weekend are exactly what the hype was always about. The season-long offensive identity runs through three senior forwards, Roberts (18.0 PPG), Power (16 PPG), and Michael Zanoni (11 PPG, 38.2% from three), who combine for a perimeter-heavy attack that ranks 11th nationally in three-point shooting percentage. Penn led the Ivy in forced turnovers during conference play and made a dramatic defensive jump under McCaffery, finishing near the top-100 in KenPom defensive rating nationally. Roberts remains a significant question mark heading into the bracket and it appears he won't suit up but only time will tell. He has been Penn’s best player all season and the Quakers did this entire tournament run without him. If he clears the concussion protocol, this team looks entirely different. Their 50 percent perimeter shooting against Yale is exactly the blueprint to win. But their one-dimensional play is capped with no Roberts and against a team that locks up perimeter looks.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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